What's in store for the property market - by Matusik - Queensland Property Investor
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What's in store for the property market – by Matusik

FOR those with a vested interest in the residential market and those who are considering buying residential property, some recent figures hint at the future direction of the market.

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These have to do with population growth and employment and both have the potential to impact positively on the housing industry.
Australia’s permanent population jumped by 400,000 last year – that’s enough people to populate a city the size of Canberra or Newcastle.
And that, along with the population growth seen over the past several years, suggests good news ahead. More people means higher housing demand, more construction, better job prospects and more sales.
For property owners, this also means price and rental growth.
House prices, in fact, have risen over the past year with modest increases – growth in our capitals rose almost 4 per cent in 2012 and vacancy rates remain tight at under 2 per cent in most major regions.
Top winners were Darwin, up 6.1 per cent; Perth up 6.0 per cent and Sydney up 5.6 per cent. Melbourne followed, up 3.4 per cent; while Brisbane saw a humble 0.6 per cent increase and Hobart fell by -1.8 per cent.
Economic forecasters BIS Shrapnel have released encouraging figures for price growth for the next three years.
Between now and the end of fiscal 2016, BIS think that Sydney’s average values will lift by 19 per cent; Brisbane’s by 17 per cent; Perth by 15 per cent; and Melbourne by 5 per cent.
If you add to Sydney’s numbers its stock decline of -23 per cent so far this year – which brings stock levels on par with those in 2009 – it is easy to see that Sydney’s recovery is well underway.
And that is good news for southeast Queensland because, in a nutshell, “peaks head north”. And they will come, with Brisbane and then both coasts seeing a lot more inquiry from later this year.
Job growth leads to increasing demand and stronger housing markets.
The Sydney market is strong because jobs are being created there. Half of new jobs created in Australia – 160,000 total last year – are in New South Wales and most are in Sydney.
Along with employment is a corresponding measure of underemployment. Currently 911,000 workers are underemployed across Australia, which means that one in every eight employees would like to have more work.
Throughout the last consistent residential market upturn – calendar 2007-08 – underemployment was below 10 per cent.
Queensland is experiencing 14 per cent underemployment, which helps to explain why the state has paused at the start of a recovery.
Theory strongly suggests that Queensland’s residential markets should be recovering, but labour utilisation must be improving and business profitability must be rising before the housing market recovers in earnest.
Astute property investors are keeping a keen eye on the Queensland market.
 
 
Original article published at www.news.com.au by Michael Matusik  the Courier Mail 20/7/2013

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Brisbane

Land developers call bottom of property market

Land developers call bottom of property market

Land developers AV Jennings and Villa World have called the bottom of the property cycle after a year of slumping sales and consumer caution blew a hole in their profits.

AV Jennings said the current property cycle has “bottomed” and that it will deliver a stronger result next financial year, after its profits were cut in half to $16.4 million by wary homebuyers steering clear of big commitments.

“General market sentiment is clearly beginning to improve … a modest uptick in visitor numbers to sales offices and online is evident and is expected to be sustained during FY20,” AV Jennings said.

Villa World chief executive Craig Treasure said soft consumer sentiment, tight credit conditions and the uncertainty caused by the federal election had created “difficult headwinds”.

“We are seeing that sales enquiries have started to improve across Villa World’s projects, however buyers remain cautious,” he said.

Villa World’s profit after tax of $23 million was also shredded compared to the previous year when it earned $43.6 million.

“This result is consistent with commentary disclosed to the market since December 2018 and reflects the decline in the Australian residential housing market and softer consumer sentiment,” Mr Treasure said.

Villa World’s land projects are concentrated in Queensland and Victoria.

All metrics for the group suffered: earnings per share were down 48 per cent to 18.2c, total revenue fell 11 per cent to $391.6 million, and sales numbers slumped to 870, down from 1788 the previous year.

The property pain was similar at AVJennings where turnover fell 20.3 per cent to $296.5 million and profits crashed by 48 per cent.

“The lower profit reflects softer market conditions, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney,” the company said.

It paid an interim dividend of 1c on 22 March and will pay another 1.5c dividend on 20 September this year.

Villa World has agreed to a takeover by AVID Property group for $2.345 per share. It will declare a fully franked dividend of 31c, as a portion of the total takeover price if it goes ahead.

 

 

Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au

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Brisbane

Brisbane Prices Could Be Headed For Recovery

Brisbane Prices Could Be Headed For Recovery

Brisbane prices are at their lowest level in the cycle, according to the latest national property clock from Herron Todd White (HTW).

The house values in Brisbane, Bundaberg, Ipswich, Rockhampton, and Toowoomba were at the bottom, according HTW.

Meanwhile, prices in Cairns, Gladstone, Mackay, Townsville, and the Whitsundays are starting to recover, the data showed.

There was momentum for the price growth in Brisbane, given that the capital city had been “bouncing along the bottom for some time now”, HTW Brisbane managing director Gavin Hulcombe told The Courier-Mail.

“I think it will be (a) steady rise, but my suspicion is in a couple of years’ time we might look back and think it (now) probably wasn’t a bad time to buy. Some areas are likely to perform better than others,” he said.

Brisbane units are also at the bottom of the price cycle, along with Bundaberg, Ipswich, Mackay, Rockhampton, Toowoomba, and the Whitsundays, according to HTW.

Apartment prices in Cairns, Emerald, Gladstone, and Townsville are already rising, the figures showed.

 

 

Source: www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au

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Brisbane

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers

A new housing index has warned that Brisbane will face a flood of ageing baby boomers with nowhere suitable to live unless it embraces greater density in suburbs where houses dominate.

A NEW housing index has warned that Brisbane will face a flood of ageing baby boomers with nowhere suitable to live unless it embraces greater density in suburbs where houses dominate.

The DORIS Index — Downsizer Opportunity to Remain in Suburbs — compared just how ready various Brisbane suburbs were to face the challenge, marrying the availability of smaller housing options with the ageing population.

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers 1

Suburbs like Pinjarra Hills, Pullenvale, Wacol, Riverhills, Chapel Hill, Ashgrove, Tarragindi, Wishart, Wakerley, Belmont, Geebung and Graceville were among the hardest for residents to downsize into, according to the report by Place Design Group and AHURI.

Report analyst Chris Isles of Place Design Group said the irony was the “grey haired keyboard army” had forced the issue, after fighting against higher density residential development in low density suburbs.

But he warned, it was a decision that “will come back to bite them”.

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers 2

This as the Brisbane City Council works its way into the final week of public feedback on its proposed citywide amendment restricting townhouses and high density housing from single-home areas.

Among the changes would be the removal of provisions in zone codes, development codes and neighbourhood plans that support multiple dwellings like townhouses and apartments in low density residential zones.

A Brisbane City Council spokeswoman said the proposal came out of concerns by residents during Plan Your Brisbane consultations.

“One in five households gave feedback and stopping townhouses being built in areas for single homes was a strong theme,” she said, adding that it was not expected to impact council’s ability to meet the state target of more than 188,000 new dwellings by 2041.

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers 2

“Brisbane City Council is currently calling for residents to help shape Brisbane and have their say on proposed plans to restrict townhouses in low density residential zones,” she said.

“These changes are about protecting the Brisbane backyard and our unique character by ensuring our planning scheme reflects community expectation on townhouse developments.

“Council is committed to supporting a broad range of housing options for all of Brisbane’s current and future residents and ensuring our city remains a great place to live, work and relax.”

She said there were several different residential and commercial zones available in suburbs across Brisbane that supported a broad range of housing types.

“While the State Government’s SEQ Regional Plan sets a target of more than 188,000 new dwellings by 2041, this amendment would not impact Council’s ability to meet this,” she said.

“The proposed amendment cannot be finalised until after community consultation and a second sign off from the State Government.”

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers 2

Place Bulimba lead agent Matthew Hackett said buyers were already “looking for quite a while” to find properties to downsize into in their suburbs or close to them.

“In my 21 years of selling in Bulimba what I find, especially recently, is people want to downsize into the same area because they feel safe, they know the area and have friends or it may be as simple as a bridge club they go to every week,” he told The Sunday Mail.

Index warns council unit ban will impact boomer downsizers 5

Long time Bulimba residents Pauline Burchardt, 67, and Lyall Gamble, 69, were among the fortunate ones, having found property to downsize into about 800m from their family home.

The couple is trying to sell their three storey family home at 16 Shakespeare St in the $2m price range, effectively looking to sell it off for two smaller units.

They’ve already moved into a three-bedroom apartment overlooking the river. at Bulimba — though it was not their first choice — and have a holiday unit on North Stradbroke.

“We had been looking for at least two years,” Ms Burchardt told The Sunday Mail. “We wanted single storey because as you get a bit more frail you worry about stairs.”

She supported improved higher density properties in the suburbs. “Why not? I don’t see a problem with it. All of the houses here are raised but when those people get older, I wonder what will happen. If they have bigger units, that would be good, You need a spare room for when the kids come over.”

Townhouses were ideal, she said, “because you get a little garden or courtyard and we’ve got two pets” but they could not find a suitable one.

According to AHURI, new housing options “need to be designed with older Australians in mind” including not just apartments but also smaller houses.

 

Source: www.news.com.au

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