Welcome to latest edition of The Urban Developer’s housing market pulse check for Brisbane.
This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling Brisbane’s housing market.
Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.
So, what were the highlights across Brisbane’s property market throughout December 2020?
Australia’s housing market finished the year on a strong footing with Corelogic’s national home value index rising a further 1 per cent in December; the third consecutive month-on-month rise following a 2.1 per cent drop in dwelling values between April and September.
At the year’s end Corelogic reported a 4.14 per cent lift in its Brisbane home value index over the year, with houses up 4.6 per cent and units 2.3 per cent, year on year.
The current median value for a Brisbane house is $577,638 with prices up 0.7 per cent across the month while the current median value for a Brisbane apartment price is $390,758.
Brisbane is also showing strength across the upper quartile, with dwelling values up 1.25 per cent in December compared with a 0.94 per cent rise in values across the lower quartile of the market.
The vacancy rate in Brisbane tightened to 1.8 per cent while rents for houses the dropped significantly over the month.
Westpac updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.
ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy.
CBA updated house price forecasts in early September for a 6 per cent peak-to-trough decline and a strong rebound in prices in the second half of 2021.
Since then, consumer confidence has surged, returning to an eight-month high.
Investor lending remains relatively modest overall, at a national level, although based on our own level of inquiry, there is definitely a lot of investor interest circling Brisbane at the moment.
The latest lending figures show that owner-occupier lending has risen to historical highs, with first home buyer numbers in Queensland up 70 per cent year-on-year.
The Home Builder scheme will continue until the end of March in a bid to prevent a major decline in construction activity.
Queensland faces a “hard road” over the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says.
The central bank, which introduced a package of measures at its latest meeting, cut the cash rate target to 0.1 per cent—the lowest in Australia’s history, in its bid to support a recovery.
Corelogic – Home Property Value Index
^Source: CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index – December
Moody’s – Housing Affordability Index
|City||Household income to meet mortgage repayments September 2019||Household income to meet mortgage repayments September 2020|
^Source: Moody’s Investor Services – October
Knight Frank – Prestige Property Index
|City||Global ranking||3-month change||12-month change|
^Source: Knight Frank Prestige Property Index – November
Corelogic – Auction Clearance Rates
|Week||Clearance rate||Total Auctions|
|Week ending 6 December 2020||57.7%||99|
|Week ending 13 November 2002||64.1%||149|
|Week ending 20 November 2020||N/A||N/A|
|Week ending 27 November 2020||N/A||N/A|
^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates – December (results for final two weeks of the year not available)
SQM – Residential Rental Vacancy Rate
|City||Dec 2020 Vacancy Rate||Monthly % change||Dec 2020 total vacancies|
^Source: SQM Research – December
SQM – Rental stock on market
|City||Dec 2019 vacancy rate||December 2020 vacancy rate||December 2020 vacancies|
^Source: SQM Research – December
SQM – Monthly Rents Index
|Type||Rent||Monthly % change||Annual % change|
^Source: SQM Research – December
ABS – Building Approvals
^Australian Bureau of Statistics – November (Suspension of trend series between May 2020 and Jul 2020 due to Covid-19)
|Dwelling||Approved||Monthly % change|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reference period November
ABS – Lending
|Region||First home buyer loan commitments||First home buyer ratio – dwellings||First home buyer ratio – housing|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – November
ABS – Interstate Migration
|Region||June 2020 arrival||June 2020 departures||June 2020 net|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – June
Brisbane Housing Market: Experts Weigh In
Head of Research
“Containing the spread of the virus has been critical to Australia’s economic and housing market resilience and Brisbane housing values have risen by 1.1 per cent over the month of December.
“In fact, Brisbane housing markets are now at a record high in terms of housing value.
“It really highlights how popular some of the lifestyle markets have become around the country.”
“Where things are a bit different, or where there is a bit more certainty now is the economy is entering 2021 with really quite a lot of momentum,”
“If anything, the risks to our forecast for the [near] 9 per cent gain in house prices next year, are probably tilted to the upside.
“Queensland’s final demand in the September quarter was higher than a year ago—it’s the only state for that to be the case.”
“Lifestyle properties, including those with water views, semi-rural or acreage, have continued to be in strong demand in Brisbane and on the Sunshine Coast.
“The lifestyle market is also being driven by the interstate market through the fact that it’s very, very good value for money by comparison.
“So, that’s going to be a key market to watch, especially on the Sunshine Coast.
“Marketplaces on the outskirts of cities are also going to be ones to watch, so, areas like Brisbane’s bayside suburbs where water comes into play, where semi-rural comes into play.”
Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com
Brisbane’s western suburbs rents skyrocket by 20 per cent-plus
Soaring demand for affordable family-friendly homes close to schools and parks has sparked a rental boom across some of Brisbane’s leafy western suburbs, with prices climbing by up to 20 per cent in just 12 months.
The latest Domain Rent Report, released last week for the September quarter, revealed the steepest rent hikes were collected in the middle and even outer city rings of the Queensland capital, with Mount Ommaney claiming the crown for top performer after house rents there rose a massive $138 per week to $690 over the last year.
Cornubia, Fig Tree Pocket and Seventeen Mile Rocks were all hot on its heels after rents rose 19.9 per cent to $535, 17.2 per cent to $700 and 16.1 per cent to $560, respectively. Houses in Scarborough, in the bayside north, saw an increase of 16.3 per cent bring weekly rents to $465.
In the nearby bayside suburb of Woody Point, units topped the leader board after rents jumped 15 per cent to $345, with Camp Hill – in the coveted inner east – winning the silver medal after a 13.9 per cent rise raised weekly prices to $410.
While rents across the city collectively rose to record heights in the September quarter, not all suburbs posted positive growth. House rents in South Brisbane suffered an annual 8 per cent drop to $460. Grange house rents, in the city’s north, also took a dive of 7.6 per cent to $550, with Manly in the bayside south suffering a slump of 5.1 per cent to bring house rents to $490.
In units, the worst-performing suburbs were Sunnybank and Macgregor, which suffered price drops of 5.1 and 4.8 per cent to bring weekly rents to $370 and $400, respectively.
Despite the price fluctuations, the individual suburb data has revealed a growing shift towards affordable lifestyle suburbs amid a new set of rent conditions that Place Estate Agents director of property management Cathie Crampton said were, more than likely, here to stay.
“Demand in the city’s lifestyle suburbs [is higher than ever] and we are seeing people moving to places like the bayside now,” she said. “The typically traditionally strong rental suburbs of Norman Park and Bulimba are still going through the roof in terms of both rentals and sales … but our most improved suburbs are Graceville and Indooroopilly, where people want to move into those school catchments.
“And that’s where we’ve had 0 per cent vacancy in our rent roll.
“But our best performing suburb has still got to be Bulimba,” Ms Crampton said. “It has continued to perform and we’ve had one of the lowest vacancy rates in that suburb for over nine months now.”
According to the Domain report, Bulimba is now the city’s most expensive suburb to rent a house after a 9.3 per cent annual hike sent weekly asking prices to $765.
Kenmore Hills came in at second place after prices rose 7.6 per cent to $710.
While the city’s blue-chip suburbs saw more subdued growth over the past year, it was the hunt for an affordable home close to amenities that sparked the price surge in Mount Ommaney, said Ray White Centenary letting manager Debbie Swales, with the suburb undergoing a coming-of-age off the back of a booming sales market.
“It’s certainly picked up a hell of a lot and when I get a good property – particularly a good family home now – people are desperate,” she said. “There are just too many people needing to rent and it’s mostly because house prices have gone up so much.
“Queensland is just really booming because there’s a lot of push from down south … but I think with Mount Ommaney, in particular, it’s a beautiful suburb and the rent is not astronomical compared to other suburbs. Then you’ve got the shopping centre, it’s really safe and there are the parks and the river.
“I’m now getting people ringing me from the Sunshine Coast and from even the north of Brisbane and they say they are moving here because it’s close to the city but also Ipswich – it’s just so accessible.”
It’s a sentiment shared by Ray White Holland Park department manager Kaitlyn Schneider, who said rents had jumped by up to $150 in the past six months alone as tenants moved further out from the city.
“I think we’ve got great access to the highway … and we’re still affordable and that’s bringing so many people to these places,” she said. “I would say Holland Park to Camp Hill and the pockets between [are on fire].”
The rental renaissance has swept across the city’s once-stigmatised Redcliffe region, said One Agency Redcliffe and Northlakes principal Stephan Siegfried, with prices soaring to record heights off the back of a pandemic-induced lifestyle shift.
“With COVID, people have rediscovered this area – and that happened particularly when we had distance restrictions [last year],” he said. “At one point Margate Beach was like Bondi – you couldn’t move and there were tents and people sunbathing. So Redcliffe has been discovered.
“People have realised this is a great place to be and we’re close to Brisbane. But the other thing that has happened [to push up prices] is the rental stock has been shrinking somewhat because landlords have cashed in on properties, and that’s shrunk the pool a bit.
“And now we’ve got people who have been priced out of the market and have to go further afield,” Mr Siegfried said. “In fact, we’ve seen a large jump in prices and that’s visible and there’s a social disturbance for long-term Redcliffe residents who have lived in affordable properties and are now finding that’s no longer the case.
“While for investors this is great – and I’m really excited because this is a coming of age for Redcliffe – about 12 days ago we had an elderly woman in our office who was in tears because she said she couldn’t afford to live here anymore. So there are two sides to the story.”
The Domain report revealed house rents on MacLeay Island, in the bayside south region, soared by 19.3 per cent over the past year to $325, while Margate house rents rose by 12.5 per cent to $428, with Redcliffe houses rising by 10.5 per cent to $420.
As for Brisbane’s cheapest suburb to rent a house, the report showed the outer pocket of Russell Island boasted a meagre weekly rent price of $300, despite prices rising by 15.4 per cent over the past year.
For units, Sandgate was the city’s most affordable suburb at $255 per week, with prices sliding a slight 1 per cent over the past 12 months.
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
House prices to rise 22 per cent this year, and grow further next: Westpac
Westpac has tipped property prices to rise by more than 20 per cent this year, increasing its price forecast yet again as the market continues to boom despite extended lockdowns.
The bank expects property prices to climb 22 per cent this year, up from a forecast of 18 per cent, and has also lifted its outlook for next year from 5 to 8 per cent.
However, it has warned the property boom is entering trickier territory, with a correction expected from 2023.
Senior economist Matthew Hassan said the property market, fuelled by record low-interest rates, had blasted past price expectations – going well above earlier forecasts for 15 per cent growth this year – with only a slight dampening effect from the latest COVID lockdowns.
Prices rose across the country another 1.5 per cent in September, taking the nation’s median dwelling price to almost $675,000, according to the latest CoreLogic figures. Values are up 17.6 per cent since January, and more than 20 per cent over the past year, marking the fastest annual growth seen since 1989.
Mr Hassan expects prices in Sydney to jump 27 per cent before the end of the year, with values in Brisbane and Hobart also expected to climb more than 20 per cent. Annual price growth of 18 per cent is forecast for Adelaide and Melbourne, and 15 per cent growth is tipped for Perth.
ANZ also expects national growth of more than 20 per cent, revising its forecasts upwards in recent months, while CBA increased its forecasts to 20 per cent, and NAB forecast 18.5 per cent growth back in July.
Westpac’s increased forecasts come after the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced banks had to lift the buffer rate applied to loan serviceability assessments from 2.5 to 3 per cent, which is estimated to reduce maximum loan sizes by about 5 per cent.
The move came earlier than expected, Mr Hassan said, though he felt its impact on the market would be marginal, given more than 80 per cent of borrowers were not taking out the maximum loan size available. However further tightening of lending restrictions, such as a crackdown on high debt to income ratios, may have a bit more of an impact – particularly on investors with multiple properties.
Still, he expected investor activity to lift from its comparatively subdued levels – accounting for just 25 per of the value of loans over the last 12 months, compared to close 40 per cent over loans over 2015-17 – as affordability constraints squeezed out owner-occupiers.
“That is the real risk factor for the market. The investor segment has been pretty subdued throughout the boom so far… but if there’s a segment that’s going to sustain the boom for longer it’s likely to be investors,” he said, which could drive more persistent price gains near term but also result in a more material correction.
“This is the pointy end of the price cycle, where affordability strains start to price people out of the market altogether, and even if you do have investors coming in in a big way that’s a riskier environment in terms of sustainability in price gains and the tolerance of regulator. We are getting into much trickier territory and the policy side of things is now in play.”
Already, the Sydney and Melbourne markets are 18 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, above their previous price peaks in 2017-18, a time when both had major affordability problems.
Mr Hassan expects the market to have run out of steam by 2023, forecasting a pullback of 5 per cent as official interest rates rise – though the Reserve Bank still has the first cash rate hike pegged for 2024.
“Even though rates will still be low, it’s about the shift in the direction …the sentiment will be that there is no more scope for [rapid] price growth … and I think that will be the thing that tips us over into a correction,” he said.
Dwelling completions, at a time of low population growth, could also weigh on prices, he added, with more than 200,000 dwellings completed this year – more than double the increase required with slower populating growth.
Oversupply had so far been limited to certain pockets, given the prolonged period of underbuilding that proceeded the latest building cycle, but that may shift if the return to significant net migration inflows takes several years to come through.
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
Queensland tenants secure more rights
The Housing Legislation Amendment Bill 2021 was approved earlier this month
Legislation has passed in the Queensland parliament that will provide more rights to tenants in coming years.
The new laws enact minimum quality standards for Queensland’s 1.8 million renters starting September 2023.
They disallow property owners from issuing a notice to leave ‘without grounds’ providing tenants with more certainty.
They allow tenants to have pets within rental properties in certain conditions. The pet clause commencement date is not yet known, but the changes to renting with pets will allow a property owner to refuse a pet on prescribed reasonable grounds that cannot be addressed by prescribed reasonable conditions.
The laws requires owners to consider the specific circumstances or the specific attributes of a pet request and deter blanket “no pets” rules.
They extend protection for renters who have experienced domestic and family violence.
The Palaszczuk Government passed its new tenancy legislation with some amendments, calling it “striking the right balance between renters and property owners.”
Penny Carr, CEO of Tenants Queensland, the state’s tenant advisory specialists, welcomed the finalisation of the first stage of the reforms, but said they fell short of modernising the laws.
“Our focus will now be to ensure all Queensland renters understand the new laws, how to exercise their rights and meet obligations, without fear of eviction.
“Renters will find it somewhat easier to keep a pet and to have repairs attended to but they will wait until 2024 for minimum standards and will still be subjected to arbitrary evictions.
“These laws are not ones for a modern Queensland as they don’t offer strong enough protections from unfair evictions,” said Ms Carr.
The REIQ says the laws had swung distinctly in favour of tenants.
“Property owners have lost the right to end a periodic tenancy by providing notice,” REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said.
“Unless owners can establish limited prescribed grounds (such as the sale of the property) they will never be able to terminate a periodic tenancy.”
The Housing Minister Leanne Enoch has committed to stage 2 of rental reform to begin in the first half of 2022.
Article Source: www.urban.com.au
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