Welcome to latest edition of The Urban Developer’s housing market pulse check for Brisbane.
This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling Brisbane’s housing market.
Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.
So, what were the highlights across Brisbane’s property market throughout December 2020?
Australia’s housing market finished the year on a strong footing with Corelogic’s national home value index rising a further 1 per cent in December; the third consecutive month-on-month rise following a 2.1 per cent drop in dwelling values between April and September.
At the year’s end Corelogic reported a 4.14 per cent lift in its Brisbane home value index over the year, with houses up 4.6 per cent and units 2.3 per cent, year on year.
The current median value for a Brisbane house is $577,638 with prices up 0.7 per cent across the month while the current median value for a Brisbane apartment price is $390,758.
Brisbane is also showing strength across the upper quartile, with dwelling values up 1.25 per cent in December compared with a 0.94 per cent rise in values across the lower quartile of the market.
The vacancy rate in Brisbane tightened to 1.8 per cent while rents for houses the dropped significantly over the month.
Westpac updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.
ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy.
CBA updated house price forecasts in early September for a 6 per cent peak-to-trough decline and a strong rebound in prices in the second half of 2021.
Since then, consumer confidence has surged, returning to an eight-month high.
Investor lending remains relatively modest overall, at a national level, although based on our own level of inquiry, there is definitely a lot of investor interest circling Brisbane at the moment.
The latest lending figures show that owner-occupier lending has risen to historical highs, with first home buyer numbers in Queensland up 70 per cent year-on-year.
The Home Builder scheme will continue until the end of March in a bid to prevent a major decline in construction activity.
Queensland faces a “hard road” over the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says.
The central bank, which introduced a package of measures at its latest meeting, cut the cash rate target to 0.1 per cent—the lowest in Australia’s history, in its bid to support a recovery.
Corelogic – Home Property Value Index
^Source: CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index – December
Moody’s – Housing Affordability Index
|City||Household income to meet mortgage repayments September 2019||Household income to meet mortgage repayments September 2020|
^Source: Moody’s Investor Services – October
Knight Frank – Prestige Property Index
|City||Global ranking||3-month change||12-month change|
^Source: Knight Frank Prestige Property Index – November
Corelogic – Auction Clearance Rates
|Week||Clearance rate||Total Auctions|
|Week ending 6 December 2020||57.7%||99|
|Week ending 13 November 2002||64.1%||149|
|Week ending 20 November 2020||N/A||N/A|
|Week ending 27 November 2020||N/A||N/A|
^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates – December (results for final two weeks of the year not available)
SQM – Residential Rental Vacancy Rate
|City||Dec 2020 Vacancy Rate||Monthly % change||Dec 2020 total vacancies|
^Source: SQM Research – December
SQM – Rental stock on market
|City||Dec 2019 vacancy rate||December 2020 vacancy rate||December 2020 vacancies|
^Source: SQM Research – December
SQM – Monthly Rents Index
|Type||Rent||Monthly % change||Annual % change|
^Source: SQM Research – December
ABS – Building Approvals
^Australian Bureau of Statistics – November (Suspension of trend series between May 2020 and Jul 2020 due to Covid-19)
|Dwelling||Approved||Monthly % change|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reference period November
ABS – Lending
|Region||First home buyer loan commitments||First home buyer ratio – dwellings||First home buyer ratio – housing|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – November
ABS – Interstate Migration
|Region||June 2020 arrival||June 2020 departures||June 2020 net|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – June
Brisbane Housing Market: Experts Weigh In
Head of Research
“Containing the spread of the virus has been critical to Australia’s economic and housing market resilience and Brisbane housing values have risen by 1.1 per cent over the month of December.
“In fact, Brisbane housing markets are now at a record high in terms of housing value.
“It really highlights how popular some of the lifestyle markets have become around the country.”
“Where things are a bit different, or where there is a bit more certainty now is the economy is entering 2021 with really quite a lot of momentum,”
“If anything, the risks to our forecast for the [near] 9 per cent gain in house prices next year, are probably tilted to the upside.
“Queensland’s final demand in the September quarter was higher than a year ago—it’s the only state for that to be the case.”
“Lifestyle properties, including those with water views, semi-rural or acreage, have continued to be in strong demand in Brisbane and on the Sunshine Coast.
“The lifestyle market is also being driven by the interstate market through the fact that it’s very, very good value for money by comparison.
“So, that’s going to be a key market to watch, especially on the Sunshine Coast.
“Marketplaces on the outskirts of cities are also going to be ones to watch, so, areas like Brisbane’s bayside suburbs where water comes into play, where semi-rural comes into play.”
Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com
Brisbane Officially Top Choice for 2032 Olympic Games
Queensland officials are finalising plans for the $4.5 billion Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games as the hunt for stadiums, venues and infrastructure funding continues.
The International Olympic Committee selected Queensland’s capital as the targeted host for the games bringing “stability” as the committee moves towards a cost neutral event.
The site of the opening ceremony is yet to be finalised with the top picks Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast, Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane or a completely new venue on the cards.
During bidding, a masterplan was developed with two athlete villages, an 80,000 seat stadium and a second M1 Motorway with final locations to be determined.
The majority of the sports will be held in existing venues with the exception of rowing which requires a new base.
Instead, funding for Brisbane 2032 Olympics will be focused on bringing infrastructure projects forward, which will have a knock-on effect for the property market.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said they already have 85 per cent of the venues for the event.
“It’s a new norm, which means it is a game changer, we don’t have to build huge stadiums that are not going to be used in the future,” Palaczszuk said.
“There is an option of one new big venue in terms of the opening ceremony but we may use Carrara as well, we’ve got to go down to the fine print and make sure we’ve got all the funding lined up.
“We want to include the regions as well, so of course with the football we’ve been looking at the soccer matches up around the different regions and of course all of the state will share in an Olympic glory.”
Lord mayor Adrian Schrinner said this is the best opportunity the state has had in generations.
“Now we need to actually go through and make sure we lock in the plans for improved infrastructure,” Schrinner said.
Queensland is already on the cusp of an economic boom with domestic migration reaching double digits and house prices hitting a record high in January.
Developers back Brisbane 2032 Olympics
Brisbane’s bid for the games dates back to 2015 and some of the state’s biggest property developers have pledged their support.
Consolidated Properties Group chief executive Don O’Rorke said the latest announcement will further build confidence in the property market for both Australians and people overseas.
“There’s going to be an intangible excitement that builds over the next decade,” O’Rorke said.
“Covid has shown Australia is a great place relative to the rest of the world.
“When it comes to the more tangible aspects, there will be construction jobs created doing the build [of Olympics-related assets] and that will be over five to six years.
“The spotlight will be put on Queensland, and you only have to look at Sydney to know what that does.
“We need to ensure the responsible deployment of capital so that stadiums [and other assets] can be used afterwards…and southeast Queensland will become known worldwide as a destination.”
Property Council of Australia executive director Chris Mountford said done right, the Olympics will turbocharge investment in the region.
“Along with facilitating investment in catalytic infrastructure, hosting the Olympics will showcase our region to the world, and inspire confidence in the private sector to invest alongside government,” Mountford said.
“Queensland is already well-placed to capitalize on its success in its handling of the pandemic, and the Olympic spotlight will only accelerate the growth trajectory of the region.”
Brisbane Airport Corporation chief executive Gert-Jan de Graff, Aria Property Group founder Tim Forrester, Hutchinson Builders chairman Scott Hutchinson as well as sporting figures Darren Lockyer, Ian Healy and Duncan Armstrong are behind the push for a Brisbane Olympic games.
Olympic funding strategy shifts
Australian Olympic Committee president John Coates said the IOC do not want countries to go out and spend big money so the three levels of government need to focus elsewhere.
“They’ve got to get in one [mindset] in terms of the funding not for the games but the funding, that this region requires to host the games…the future infrastructure, transport, in particular rail and road,” Coates said.
“The IOC is on a budget of circa $4.5 billion, the IOC puts in $2.5 billion give or take the exchange rate…then you get $1 billion from national sponsorship and $1 billion from ticketing.
“They don’t want to have big costly losses for many cities, you know go back to Melbourne and Sydney, we spent $30 million on those.”
IOC president Thomas Bach said the decision to pick Brisbane aligns with their new agenda for 2020 onwards, as a result of the pandemic.
“It proposes sustainable games in line with the region’s long-term strategy and using primarily existing and temporary venues,” Bach said.
“The commitment of Australia and Oceania to Olympic sports has grown remarkably since the fantastic Olympic Games Sydney 2000.”
Although the city is the only candidate now being considered for the 2032 games there are still a few minor hurdles to jump through before it is set in stone
Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com
Two green bridges underway, Brisbane City Council seeks feedback on two more
Construction on two green bridges linking Brisbane’s inner-city suburbs is slated to begin this year, but the location of three other planned bridges remains unclear.
- Brisbane City Council pledged $550 million for five green bridges in 2019
- Two bridges begin construction this year and two others are out for consultation
- A planned bridge at Bellbowrie has been scrapped
In 2019, Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner made a $550 million pledge to build five new green bridges, catering for pedestrians and cyclists, to reduce vehicle traffic and improve the city’s connectivity.
At Tuesday’s public and active transport committee meeting, Brisbane City councillors were given an update on the progress of the green bridges program.
Public and active transport committee chairman Ryan Murphy told the committee the council wanted state or federal funding support alongside the $550 million already committed.
The $190 million Kangaroo Point green bridge will be 470 metres long and 6.8 metres wide, with separated cycling and pedestrian lanes, linking the inner-city suburb with the City Botanic Gardens.
Construction on the Kangaroo Point and Breakfast Creek bridges will begin this year, with the council now out to tender for both.
Consultation for two West End bridges
Community consultation on the bridges from West End to St Lucia and West End to Toowong was extended following concerns the December-January consultation was too short.
For the West End bridges, suggested locations put forward by Brisbane City Council would either place the landing pads on public parks, such as Orleigh Park in West End and Guyatt Park in St Lucia, or on private property.
Greens councillor Jonathan Sri, in whose ward both West End bridges would sit, said it appeared the third option for the St Lucia bridge — between Keith Street in St Lucia and Boundary Street in West End — was most supported.
“I’ve heard from several residents who’ve said they think the Option C location for the St Lucia bridge is preferable from a transport perspective, but they have concerns about the scale and design of the exact alignment proposed by council, and the associated home resumptions,” Cr Sri said.
“The vast majority of residents seem to prefer alignment Option A for the Toowong Bridge, and it seems like the Toowong bridge in general has a lot more support.”
Option A for the Toowong bridge would see the bridge land at 600 Coronation Drive — the former ABC Towoong site now owned by developers Sunland, but put up for sale late last year.
Last year, Cr Schrinner ruled out purchasing the 600 Coronation Drive site saying the cost would be prohibitive, but said the council would consider resuming a portion of the land for a green bridge if needed.
LNP councillor James Mackay, in whose ward of Walter-Taylor the two bridges would land, recently spoke at a rally for a group opposed to a possible Guyatt Park alignment for the St Lucia to West End Bridge.
Cr Mackay referred queries about his community’s opinions to the lord mayor’s office.
Fifth green bridge site unknown
In mid-2020 a fifth proposed bridge, from Belbowrie to Wacol, was scrapped after several rounds of community consultation found little support.
The council is preparing options for a fifth bridge location, the committee heard.
Deputy Labor leader Kara Cook in a statement said she had lodged a petition with more than a thousand signatures calling for a bridge on the eastern side of the river.
Cr Cook said a bridge in her area — around Bulimba and Hawthorne connecting across to New Farm or Teneriffe — had been mooted since at least 1925.
Technical challenges are greater for the eastern section of the river as any new bridge must be of a height to allow ships through and would span a wider section of water.
Article Source: www.abc.net.au
Commercial Market Update – Brisbane Fringe Cityscope February 2021
The latest research from Brisbane Fringe Cityscope shows in the last three months property sale numbers have increased but sales figures have had a slight increase. The last three months to the beginning of February 2021 recorded 22 sales for a total of $114.2 million, with $23.7 million for commercial, $4.4 million for commercial strata, $4.2 million for retail, $4.3 million for retail strata and $77.5 million for other.
In comparison, the last three months to the beginning of November 2020 recorded 14 sales for a total of $98.9 million, with $86.2 million for commercial, $1.5 million for commercial strata, $800,000 for retail strata and $10.5 million for other.
The 12 months leading up to early February 2021 recorded 60 sales for a total of $323.5 million, more than $212.6 million less than the same time last year.
The table below shows sales recorded for the past eight updates of Brisbane Fringe Cityscope:
Significant sales recorded this quarter total nearly $80 million, these sales include:
After a failed sale to iProsperity, interests associated with Amora Hotels & Resorts have purchased the 296-room Novotel Brisbane Hotel for just over $67.8 million; the hotel will be rebranded following Novotel’s lease expiring in late April this year. JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group negotiated the sale. The hotel last traded for $63.5 million in 2010.
A three-storey child care centre at 20-22 Marie Street, Milton has been sold for $8.435 million; it was purchased through The Trust Company (Australia) Limited. The property, formerly an office building, was extended and refurbished in 2018 for use by the a 120-space child care centre. It previously traded for $6.15 million in 2017.
Developer, builder and property managers, Pellicano, have purchased 68 Brunswick Street, Fortitude Valley for $8 million from Metro Property Group. The property was originally going to house stage 4 of the adjoining Central Village development. The 5,374 sqm site was sold through JLL Brisbane and has Council approval to demolish the existing buildings on site.
Properties for sale include:
- Lanmor House, 124 Brunswick Street and 52 Amelia Street – a two-storey office building and a two-storey warehouse/office building, with a combined area of 960 sqm and associated car parking. For sale by expressions of interest, closing February 24, 2021; agent, Colliers International (Hunter Higgins and Nick Wedge).
- 29 Amelia Street, Fortitude Valley – two-strata units (the whole building) with a combined 828 sqm of office space over two levels, plus ground floor car parking for 20 vehicles. For sale by expressions of interest, closing February 18, 2021; agent, C Property Qld (Sam Callanan and Joe Kennedy).
- 196 Wickham Street, Fortitude Valley – a two-storey retail/entertainment building with lower ground level to the rear. For sale by offers to purchase; agent, Commercial Brisbane (Glenn Corrigan and Tom Chan).
Properties under contract (conditional or unconditional) include:
- 38 Warry Street and adjoining car parking at 41 Kennigo Street – 2,955 sqm of office space (the former Keatings Bread Factory site) and an adjoining carparking for 20 vehicles. Under contract; agent, Cushman & Wakefield Brisbane (Peter Court and Mike Walsh) and CBRE Brisbane (Jack Morrison and Peter Chapple).
- 72 Costin Street, Fortitude Valley – a single-storey plus mezzanine, brick office building with car parking for 15 vehicles. Net lettable area, 507 sqm. Under contract unconditionally with a long, one-year settlement period expected; agent, Colliers International Brisbane (Hunter Higgins and Nick Wedge). The property was advertised with a potential leaseback agreement from 9-months to three-years.
Article Source: www.corelogic.com.au
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