THE Queensland property market sits on the cusp of growth as it heads into the new financial year, but it will take a return of confidence to tip it in the right direction.
Real Estate Institute of Queensland chief executive Anton Kardash said there were glimmers of hope that the market would improve throughout the next year.
He said as recently as this week the Reserve Bank of Australia had revealed all the basics were in place for the market to recover, but it was a lack of confidence holding it back.
”Housing affordability has never been any better, and we are seeing a really good rental market by and large in Queensland,” Mr Kardash said.
”The market sits ready to fire, but it is just not firing, I am not sure what is going to take to make it fire.”
Mr Kardash said the market during the previous financial year had ebbed and flowed.
”In those areas where confidence starts to flow you actually start to see some quite reasonable growth in sales activity and median price and then it ebbs,” he said.
”The dips weren’t huge, one per cent or two per cent at a time, but there had not really been any substantial growth.”
Mr Kardash blamed in part a lack of first home buyers, who were no longer enticed to buy after the first home buyers grant for existing houses was removed.
“The missing stimulus of the first home buyers’ grant is having a detrimental effect,” he said.
A protracted federal election campaign was also having a negative affect and countering any benefit from the current low interest rate environment.
“We are not looking for a boom of 14 per cent or 15 per cent,” Mr Kardash said.
“Our view is we would seem to be constantly on the cusp of having some substantial growth, but until basics around confidence are in place we think it will keep bobbing along like it has.”
RP Data research analyst Cameron Kusher said growth in Brisbane had certainly lagged behind other capital cities in the past financial year.
Despite that he said the market was in a much better position than 12 months ago.
He was surprised the market hadn’t come back stronger because of the low interest rate environment.
“I thought that may have provided more of a stimulus to market,” he said.
Mr Kusher said sales had been up in the past three months – 14.5 per cent higher than the same time last year.
“You would expect eventually that will lead to some further growth in values,” he said.
Yields were also strong and investors were returning to the market.
“There has not been much growth in Brisbane for a long time, we are seeing the gap between Brisbane and Sydney (prices) widen.”
Mr Kusher said that may trigger some more interest in the Brisbane housing market if confidence continued to improve or trend higher and unemployment stayed the same.
“I definitely think there is scope for the prospects to improve,” he said.
“People are acting a lot more cautiously, paying off debt and savings is up. People are trying to get into a more comfortable position.”
Mr Kusher said growth in the next six months would depend on what happened in the broader economy.
“If unemployment starts to rise you do have potential for values start to fall,” he said.
Seasonal factors will come into play in the next quarter with the start of spring likely to bring about more activity.
Original article published at www.news.com.au by Michelle Hele The Courier Mail 6/7/2013