HOME values rose in seven of Queensland’s nine subregions in the past year, despite widespread fears of a cooling housing market.
It comes as Brisbane is ranked 20th on a global list of cities measuring residential property price growth over the past year, with the city recording above average 3.5 per cent growth.
Research from property data supplier CoreLogic reveals the Sunshine Coast recorded the biggest rise in home values over the past 12 months – increasing 6 per cent.
Homes in Brisbane’s western suburbs increased in value by 4.4 per cent in the same period, followed by Moreton Bay South, with a gain of 2.5 per cent and inner Brisbane with a rise of 2.1 per cent.
Home values in Logan, Brisbane’s eastern suburbs, Gold Coast, Wide Bay, Brisbane’s north and Moreton Bay North also rose marginally.
At the same time, only one of Sydney’s 15 subregions recorded an annual rise in home values.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said that with property values falling across four of the eight capital cities over the past twelve months, it was easy to forget some housing markets around the country were actually seeing relatively healthy and sustainable growth.
Almost half of Australia’s 88 SA4 subregions recorded a rise in dwelling values over the past twelve months.
Regional areas of the country are more likely to be showing positive growth conditions, with 57 per cent of all regional areas recording a rise in dwelling values over the year, compared to only 39 per cent of the capital city subregions.
Mr Lawless said the ‘healthier’ conditions across the regional markets could probably be attributed to more sustainable growth conditions during the growth phase, compared to the likes of Sydney and Melbourne.
“The more sustainable history of price growth has kept a lid on housing affordability and made these markets attractive to migrants, particularly those areas where economic conditions are buoyant,” Mr Lawless said.
“A ripple of demand has been emanating from the largest capitals towards the satellite cities where housing is generally more affordable and lifestyle factors can be appealing.
“Many coastal and lifestyle markets have benefited from a rise in buyer demand, either from those looking for a new residence, second home or investment option.”
Mr Lawless also said many of the hard hit mining regions had now levelled out and were starting to show growth.
He said the data highlighted the diversity across Australia’s housing markets.
“While conditions are broadly slowing, especially around Sydney and Melbourne, many areas of the country are benefiting from a history of more sustainable growth rates, improving demand and reasonably strong economic conditions,” Mr Lawless said.
It comes as Knight Frank ranked Brisbane 20th on its Prime Global Cities Index.
Sydney came in 17th place, Melbourne sits in 21st place and Perth sits in 24th place.
“Despite a cooling mainstream market off the back of tighter lending practices, Australian prime markets continue to experience growth with buyers less impacted by these measures,” Knight Frank’s head of residential research Australia Michelle Ciesielski said.
The Brisbane suburbs where property values will rise
The Brisbane suburbs where rent prices have increased most
Brisbane’s rent prices have remained relatively steady over the past 12 months, but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been any big changes in rent prices across the city. So which suburbs have seen the biggest price hikes, and which have seen the biggest reductions?
When it comes to units, Bardon recorded the highest jump in rent price in the past 12 months. The north-western suburb saw an 18 per cent increase up to a median weekly rent price of $360, which is consistent with a 20 per cent increase over the past five years.
Brooke Rowley, property management business developer for Ray White Paddington, said smaller units have recently popped up in the suburb and were likely to account for the bump in price.
“We have height restrictions so we don’t have all the high-rises, but we do have a lot of smaller units and townhouses,” she said. “They’re not high rise, the top would be three levels. But nice, and fairly new.”
Rowley said most of the rental interest in the area came from more established renters who were interested in the location and surrounding amenities.
“Bardon is the catchment zone for two very good schools, Bardon State School and Rainworth State School. A lot of people look for the good schools, and then want to stay in that area. [We see] more professionals sharers and families because of the schools, and close proximity to the city. [There’s also] easy access to get to Mt Coot-tha and the western suburbs.”
Elsewhere, Yerongpilly in Brisbane’s south saw a strong 14.3 per cent increase in unit rent prices year-on-year, while nearby suburb Holland Park jumped a similarly strong 11.1 per cent.
Meanwhile, house rent prices increased the most in Fortitude Valley, with the central suburb posting a 16.3 per cent jump. The median weekly rent price was $500 in the area. Leasing associate Connor Hadwen, of Living Here Cush Partners, said the increase was likely due to the market catching up to the recent apartment boom.
“The oversupply of apartments has mostly been filled at the moment,” he said. “So compared to five years ago, the rental prices are returning to normal levels. It’s just the suburb growth matching back to normal levels.”
In fact, Domain economist Trent Wiltshire said the most notable broad trend in Brisbane’s rental market in the past 12 months was a 6.25 per cent increase in rent price for units in inner-city Brisbane suburbs like Fortitude Valley.
“That’s a surprise given what we know has been happening in the Brisbane apartment market in the inner city,” he said. “Brisbane’s gone through a huge apartment building boom over the last few years. Despite that, rents have increased over the past year by 6 per cent.
“It’s only up by 6 per cent over five years, so it has been held down over the last few years by the big building boom, but it’s just jumped in the past year. This says to me that there’s ongoing strong demand for new apartments.”
Mr Hadwen said he had seen strong interstate and international interest in Fortitude Valley, and its surrounding suburbs of New Farm, Teneriffe, and Newstead.
“We tend to see not huge families coming to live here, but people moving here for employment opportunities. [People] wanting to live close to the city.”
Another suburb that posted a large increase in house rent price was Fig Tree Pocket in Brisbane’s south-west. It saw a 12.5 per cent jump for a median weekly rent price of $675. Closer to the CBD, Ashgrove saw an increase of 10.6 percent making for a median weekly house rent price of $575.
On the other end of the spectrum, the apartment rental market in Rocklea in Brisbane’s south saw the biggest dip across the city, with rent dropping 8.9 per cent year on year consistent with an 8.9 per cent drop in the past five years. The current median weekly rent price for units in the area is $280.
When it comes to houses, the western suburb of Chelmer saw the biggest drop at 11.2 per cent. This could be an anomaly, however, given the area’s 26.2 per cent increase over the past five years. The current median weekly rent price for houses in the area is $675.
Queensland leads the way in market recovery
Demand has started to increase in the property market on the back of the recent federal election results and interest rate cuts, with Brisbane and Mackay in Queensland leading the road to recovery.
REA’s Property Outlook for July has revealed the “ScoMo bounce” and two interest rate cuts were breathing new life into Australian property, with demand starting to increase and slowly flowing through to many indicators.
Search activity has seen a bump, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney’s hard hit markets, clearance rates in premium suburbs are getting back to high levels, and many mining towns are returning to growth after five years of negative conditions, according to the report.
realestate.com.au’s Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee said rental growth in these areas started some time ago, but a recovery is now following suit.
“Queensland is leading the way in the recovery,” Ms Conisbee said in the report. “Brisbane has been the first capital city off the block in terms of price growth, and Mackay is right now the top regional growth area in Australia.”
She added that jobs growth is also driving rental demand, which continues to be highest in Hobart, Gold Coast and Melbourne, and while the extreme price growth in Hobart now seems to be over, Launceston is taking over. Regional Victoria was also doing well, with many suburbs in Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong experiencing never before seen property demand.
But according to the report, any real uplift in the number of people listing properties for sale is yet to be seen and pricing data is yet to reflect a change in conditions, and Ms Conisbee warned that while much of this sounds promising, there are some dark clouds looming on the horizon.
“Although buyers love an interest rate cut (we see an increase in search activity onrealestate.com.au almost as soon as it is announced), the Australian economy isn’t looking particularly healthy,” she said in the report.
“While many economic indicators have been poor for some time now, the bright spark has always been low unemployment. With this creeping up and the Reserve Bank pushing through two interest rate cuts very quickly, the positive effect of cheaper finance may not be enough to offset the fact that people are beginning to lose their job. Could it be that the worst for property is still be to come?”
Ms Conisbee said if the interest rate cuts were enough to stimulate the economy and property prices continued to see a rebound, we were still looking at a very different property market to what it was like during the boom, with investor lending down 45 per cent from peak and unlikely to make a full recovery any time soon.
“Buyers from Asia, a key market for new development, have dropped dramatically,” she reported. “Over the past 12 months alone, property seekers from China have dropped by over 60 per cent to the lowest level we have ever recorded, and confidence in the new apartment sector is low following some high-profile structural issues.”
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