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Property market update: Brisbane, July 2020

Property market update Brisbane, July 2020

While most major property markets struggle to stay afloat, Brisbane market is believed to be exhibiting resilience yet again. How will the Queensland capital city market fare in the remaining months of 2020?

Despite the overall median data trend showing slight falls in house values, Brisbane continues to witness a significantly high demand for quality housing, according to property professional Melinda Jennison.

“Over July, some open homes we have attended over the month of July have seen more than 30-40 groups through. This illustrates that buyers are still very active in the Brisbane property market,” she highlighted.

“Advertised properties that are listed for sale in desirable locations are being sold very quickly in Brisbane. Often, the sale is a result of multiple offers being submitted on the property. If listed for sale by auction, they are achieving high prices with multiple registered bidders.”

While Sydney and Melbourne lead the fall in capital city values with as much as a 1.2 per cent decline, Brisbane continues to witness strong prices still being paid for quality properties in many regions around the city, as well as several properties being traded off-market.

Ultimately, the COVID-19 outbreak has not resulted in a measurable fall in property prices across Brisbane, so buyers should not expect a bargain brought about by the pandemic, according to Ms Jennison.

Property values

House prices across Australia have fallen by 2 per cent, while unit prices are down even further at 2.2 per cent over the quarter, according to the latest edition of the Domain House Price Report.

While all major capital cities saw unit prices fall, house prices fell in most of them except Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart.

Brisbane, in particular, saw property values drop by just 1.4 per cent over the quarter – buffering price falls better than Sydney and Melbourne.

Over the month of July, the latest Hedonic Home Value Index data by Corelogic found dwelling values in Brisbane declining by 0.4 per cent.

Median house values for the greater Brisbane region fell by -0.3 per cent over the month, bringing the median house value to $555,284, while unit median values declined by -0.5 per cent, bringing the median unit value to $384,681.

According to Domain, Brisbane is showcasing a “two-speed property market” as Brisbane City, Moreton Bay, Scenic Rim and Somerset house prices all fell over the quarter, while Ipswich and Logan remained stable.

Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell said: “Prior to COVID-19, there was promising growth in prices for Greater Brisbane. Although this has reversed over the quarter, the fall in prices to date has been minimal considering the economic aftermath of border closures and shutdowns.”

“An initial pullback in seller and buyer activity during the lockdown acted to underpin prices, government financial support has kept distressed or urgent sales minimal, and incentives have encouraged buying journeys to begin.

“The outlook for residential property has improved vastly in recent weeks.”

Ultimately, despite value losses across major capital city markets, Domain noted that the impacts “have been minimal” as the expected drastic price falls were buffered by significant government stimulus, mortgage holidays and the continued low-interest rates supporting home values that have also kept distressed and urgent sales low.

Supply and demand

For the week ending 26 July, CoreLogic found that, of the 1,315 reported auctions, 54.1 per cent returned a successful result, which is an improvement from the week prior when a 53.1 per cent final clearance rate was recorded.

In Melbourne, 540 homes were scheduled for auction, but less than 50 per cent of these returned a successful result.

In Sydney, the final auction clearance rate fell across a higher volume of auctions last week as there were 594 homes taken to auction, which returned a final auction clearance rate of 60.6 per cent, lower than the 61.4 per cent over the week prior when 515 auctions took place.

Across the smaller cities, Canberra was the best-performing capital city, with 77.6 per cent of homes selling at auction. However, this was lower than the week prior when an 88.6 per cent final clearance rate was achieved.

Following Canberra’s results are Adelaide (60.7 per cent), Brisbane (43.9 per cent) and Perth (28.6 per cent).

Rental market

Over the quarter, unit rental yields fell by 3.2 per cent (equivalent to $15 per week), marking the biggest drop in more than 15 years as COVID-19 pushed landlords to reduce rates, Domain’s latest research found.

House and unit rental prices fell across most major capitals, with Sydney and Hobart unit rentals hardest hit.

According to Dr Powell: “The rental market has become highly fragmented in recent months. With weaker conditions for units compared to houses, tenants have a better chance of nabbing a cheaper unit.”

“This weakness has been led by significant rent reductions in Sydney and Melbourne inner-city areas due to a surge in advertised rentals from March to June.”

Meanwhile, Brisbane house and unit rents also fell over the quarter, but year-on-year data showed that rents remained flat.

At a city level, the rental market in Brisbane has definitely recovered, according to Ms Jennison.

With over 1,200 REIQ property management member agencies surveyed throughout Queensland, results show that only 6.05 per cent of residential rental tenants qualified as “COVID-19 impacted” under the state government’s COVID-19 Emergency Response Regulation. This represents approximately 3,950 renters from a state total in excess of 577,000 residential tenancies.

However, there are still some at-risk markets around the city, particularly in terms of the imbalance in supply and demand.

While Brisbane real estate has not been impacted like other cities with international border closures, plummeting foreign student numbers, job losses and pay cuts have still made their mark, with Brisbane’s CBD particularly exposed to reduced rental demand.

“The vacancy rate in many locations is trending down and is very tight. The areas where this trend is not happening are in the Brisbane CBD and locations immediately surrounding this and also in areas where there are a lot of higher-density unit developments. In these locations, vacancy is still a big problem. Therefore, these markets remain high-risk,” she said.

2020 outlook

Moving forward, there remains a lot of worry and concern about what might happen to property values across the country when the government’s fiscal response starts to taper in October and repayment holidays expire at the end of March next year.

For one, experts are forecasting a rise in distressed properties coming to the market.

However, they have yet to see whether this would also mean any downward pressure on prices.

“This is where I think the different property markets around Australia will each experience something slightly different,” according to Ms Jennison.

According to the Commonwealth Bank Home Buying Spending Intentions Index, there was a 6 per cent rise in home buying intentions nationally up to the end of June 2020. This index showed the index had returned back close to levels seen in March – after much weaker readings in April and May.

“We are definitely seeing this trend on the ground with the current high volume of buyers in Brisbane. Because of this, I’m sure we could see some moderate increase in new listings come to the market without any significant impact on the supply and demand balance,” she highlighted.

“Remember, property prices will only fall when supply outstrips demand.”

With dwelling approvals now at the lowest level in eight years, the future supply pipeline also looks tight. The most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed a decline of -10.9 per cent in new detached house approvals in Queensland.

Overall, real-time demand remains strong in Brisbane as property buyers are being fuelled by the lowest-ever interest rates, good levels of affordability and strong rental yields compared with many other state capitals.

Amid economic uncertainties, Atelier Wealth’s managing director Aaron Christie-David said that conditions are likely to be more difficult in the short-term, but those with a long-term view will most likely prevail.

“For investors wanting to sell, days on the market have increased as has vendor discounting, which could further impact median prices,” Mr Christie-David highlighted.

“The good news is that while yields have been trending downward, in May rental yields recovered by 3 basis points. There continues to be opportunities for investors, with supply at record lows and demand strong in certain suburbs.

“Areas which will benefit from First Home Buyer incentives and where incomes and jobs have been less impacted by the economic downturn will remain attractive to investors and will withstand any potential deeper price falls from September.”

Home upgraders will also have good opportunities in today’s market, according to him.

“Falling property values will allow for upgraders to access better homes. Steeper falls will lead to better discounts, but will also affect those opting to sell their PPOR. Record low-interest rates are also making purchases much more affordable,” he said.

Meanwhile, first home buyers will have government incentives, record low-interest rates and falling prices providing them opportunities.

Mr Christie-David advised them to focus on saving for their deposit right now so they could take advantage of the dropping property values.

“The higher the deposit, the lower the [loan-to-value] ratio (LVR) which may potentially allow you to avoid lenders mortgage insurance… If rates fall again or remain steady, this can provide good opportunities for first home buyers,” he said.

While there’s no certainty about the future of the property market, Mr Christie-David advised investors to avoid panicking and, instead, watch the market closely.

As September is a potential danger zone, he strongly encouraged undertaking extensive and engaging professionals in order to assess how any investment decision will affect their portfolios in the short, mid and long-term.

For those keen to buy, Propertyology’s head of research Simon Pressley highlighted five major government projects in Queensland that are tipped to lift the housing market:

  • Inland Rail project: A $10 billion 1,700-kilometre rail infrastructure project connecting ports in Melbourne and Brisbane to meet demand for an anticipated 75 percent increase in Australia’s freight over the next decade. The inland route was strategically chosen to more efficiently transport food and general cargo throughout the eastern states and to reduce the volume of trucks on highways. Completion of the project will provide enormous scope for Australia’s vast agricultural precincts to ramp up production as a global giant food supplier. The post-construction economic benefits for regional communities will be substantial and will have a positive influence on property markets in communities such as Seymour, Bendigo, Shepparton, Albury-Wodonga, Wagga Wagga, Griffith, Parkes, Dubbo, Narrabri, Armidale, Goondiwindi, Toowoomba and Beaudesert.
  • Australia-Singapore Military Training hubs: The Australian and Singaporean federal governments have signed an agreement for Australia to provide advance military training to 14,000 Singaporean military personnel every year for 25 years. Singapore has committed to investing $2.25 billion, which will benefit Townsville and Rockhampton through facility infrastructure development. In addition to construction jobs, the 25-year provision of goods and services to trainees will provide long-term economic benefits for Rockhampton and Townsville, increasing the demand for real estate in both regional cities.
  • Maroochydore City: A $430 million development of a modern CBD for the Sunshine Coast. The region’s population grew at a higher rate than any other location in Australia over the last decade. The new Maroochydore city centre development will include commercial, retail, high and medium-density residential development, high-speed internet, parklands, waterways and bicycle tracks.
  • Queens Wharf: A $3.6 billion world-class entertainment precinct in Brisbane’s CBD, meaning that Australia’s third-largest city will (finally) have a world-class precinct to rival Melbourne’s Crown entertainment and Sydney’s Barangaroo precincts. Due for completion in 2022 and developed across five city blocks, this game-changing project will attract a staggering 1.39 million visitors per year, bring billions of dollars to the coffers of Brisbane’s economy each year, create approximately 10,000 new jobs and breathe an exciting new energy into the Brisbane community.
  • Hells Gate Dam: Agribusiness and general economic development for northern Australia will be big winners from this $5.3 billion irrigation and energy project by constructing an enormous dam on the upper Burdekin River, north of Charters Towers. According to a viability assessment conducted by Townsville Enterprise, if Hells Gate Dam is developed to full capacity, it has potential to inject billions of dollars into the North Queensland economy. The property market beneficiaries of this game-changing project will be Cairns, Townsville, Innisfail, Ingham, Ayr and Charters Towers.

 

 

 

This article is republished from www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Brisbane

Record auction figures in December as Australia’s property market plays catch up

Auction

A surge in post lockdown supply coupled with buoyant market conditions, led to unprecedented levels of auction activity across Australia in the final three months of 2021.

CoreLogic’s Quarterly Auction Market Review shows 42,918 properties were taken to auction across the combined capital cities in the three months to December 2021, an 85.1% increase from the previous quarter and more than double (109.5%) the December 2020 figures.

CoreLogic’s Research Director Tim Lawless says several factors resulted in the surge in auctions, including some catch-up from the September quarter when the largest auctions markets were weighted down by lockdowns as well as a pickup in activity following the seasonally slower conditions of winter.

“The large number of auctions held through the December quarter also reflects the strong selling conditions that were present, which motivated vendors to capitalise on strong buyer demand and the significant rise in values seen through the pandemic,” he says.

“Auctions as a way of selling tend to be more popular during a sellers’ market; in this situation buyers are highly competitive and incentivised to outbid rival purchasers in order to secure a property. During cooler market conditions an auction may not attract as many registered bidders or as much competitive bidding.”

In Australia’s two biggest auction markets, Melbourne had 19,788 auctions and a clearance rate of 69.7% for the December quarter compared to Sydney, where 14,906 auctions were held at a clearance rate of 69.9%.

Across the combined capitals, the quarterly clearance rate of 71.3% was only slightly down on the previous quarter results of 71.7%.

However, as the quarter progressed and the volume of auctions held increased, the clearance rate progressively trended lower to 61.1% in the week ending 19 December, 2021.

Mr Lawless says higher auction volumes will often correspond with lower clearance rates as demand becomes more thinly stretched.

“The surge in the number of auctions through the final quarter of 2021 was accompanied by a consistent trend towards lower clearance rates, with this trend evident across each of the capital cities,” he says.

“The drop in clearance rates implies demand didn’t quite keep pace with the level of auction supply during the quarter.”

In the smaller capitals Brisbane (3027 auctions, clearance rate of 74.9%), Adelaide (2902 auctions, 80.5%) and Canberra (1949 auctions, 82.4%) also recorded significant increases in volumes compared to Q3 2021, and the corresponding quarter in 2020.

auction At a granular level, the suburb of Wishart, 12km south-east of Brisbane’s CBD, recorded a 100% clearance rate, the highest in the country, with all 28 properties scheduled for auction in the December quarter selling under the hammer.

The heightened auction volumes in Brisbane and Adelaide echoed the cities respective housing strength, where values continued to rise at cyclical highs through December, prompting a higher proportion of properties being taken to auction.

Auctions in Australia’s regional areas also increased substantially over the quarter. Larger centres such as Newcastle, the Illawarra, Geelong and the Gold and Sunshine coasts in Queensland, each saw a surge in auction volumes, reflective of the tight housing market conditions that currently exist in the country’s popular coastal areas and lifestyle-oriented markets.

In the week ending January 23, 2022, close to 460 auctions are scheduled across the capital cities, almost 40% higher when compared to the same period a year ago. However, Mr Lawless says it’s too early to forecast the auction market trend likely to prevail in 2022.

“Overall advertised supply levels generally remain below average across most of the capitals suggesting sellers are still benefitting from strong selling conditions,” Mr Lawless says.

“Auction volumes tend to ramp up through early February and move through a seasonal peak in the weeks prior to Easter. Over the medium term we are expecting listing numbers to gradually normalise which should see buyers regaining some leverage in the market over time.  If this is the case, we could see more vendors reverting to private treaty sales rather than auctions as competitive tension amongst buyers eases.”

A full city-by-city suburb analysis, where at least 20 auction results were reported over the December quarter, can be found in the report.

 

Article Source: www.corelogic.com.au

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Brisbane

High Rollers Spending Big in South-East Queensland’s Premium Market

Market

The Gold Coast continues to rise above the pandemic, providing bang for buck for many ultra high-net worth individuals who bought into the unyielding prime residential market.

The region recorded a 156 per cent increase in annual sales turnover for prime residential property, the biggest in the country, according to Knight Frank’s Australian Prime Residential Review report.

Knight Frank head of residential research Michelle Ciesielski, who authored the report, said Gold Coast property had chalked up a 10.5 per cent increase in prime prices, the second-highest behind Sydney at 10.7 per cent.

“The Gold Coast saw the biggest rise in prime annual sales turnover at 156 per cent, followed by Brisbane at 135 per cent,” Ciesielski said.

“Gold Coast prime properties were on the market 19 days less on average [than the previous quarter], the biggest reduction across Australia.”

The Gold Coast also offered more for your money.

According to Knight Frank data, US$1 million would buy you 124sq m of luxury floor space in the Gold Coast, while in Melbourne it could buy about 88sq m and a paltry 44sq m in Sydney.

Prime residential performance, third quarter 2021

Region Capital Growth YoY Sales Volume YoY Gross rental yield
Sydney 10.7% 119% 2.07%
Melbourne 6.5% 85% 2.69%
Brisbane 8.4% 135% 2.41%
Perth 10.4% 120% 1.78%
Gold Coast 10.5% 156% 3.48%

^Source: Knight Frank Australian Prime Residential Review

Sherpa Property Group chief executive Christie Leet told The Urban Developer late last year that beachfront prices at nearly $20,000 per square metre were “towards the top end, well and truly”.

“There’s a fair argument that we might have hit a peak,” Leet said.

“But there’s still plenty of people out there buying tower sites that are going to take three or four years to develop.”

Towards the end of 2021 there were more than 50 residential projects with an estimated investment value of $4.8 billion under construction on the Gold Coast.

Nationally, the third quarter of 2021 was the second highest on record for prime sales, recording 1971 properties sold, while the volume of prime sales was up 119 per cent across the year ending September 2021.

Knight Frank forecast prime prices would increase 11 per cent across 2021, and a further 8 per cent in 2022.

Luxury rental prices on the Gold Coast have risen 10 per cent with yields the strongest in the Australian prime residential market at 3.48 per cent.

The pace of development of prime apartments and townhouses across Australia has slowed. About 26,700 new high-end apartments and townhouses were built in 2020, while the pipeline was 42 per cent less for 2021 with just 15,500 under construction.

Almost half of these new apartments are for the Melbourne market (7450), while Sydney and the Gold Coast were slated for more than 2000 properties each.

Globally the strongest prime residential capital growth was recorded in Miami, followed by Seoul, Shanghai, Moscow and Toronto.

Sydney was ranked 14th, followed by the Gold Coast (15th) and Perth (16th). Brisbane was at 21, while Melbourne came in with a middling performance at 24.

 

Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com

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Opinion

How home loan mortgages rose in 2021 to record levels

home loan

Lender records were broken in every state and territory except WA, according to the ABS data

Purchases by NSW owner occupiers came with mortgages sat at around $770,000, according to the latest lending data.

The national average mortgage size for owner-occupiers has reached a record high of $595,568 according to ABS data.

Records were broken in every state and territory except WA.

The national mortgage was up $92,404, an 18% hike over the year.

The November ABS Lending Indicators, released 14 January, advised the loans were for the purchase of new and existing dwellings.

The national average mortgage size for owner-occupiers has reached a record high of $595,568 according to new ABS data out today.

Records were broken in every state and territory except WA, according to the ABS data in original terms.

Victorian home buyers saw the biggest jump in their mortgages, up 24% or $120,000 to $618,602.

Average new owner-occupier mortgage size, November 2021

Amount Year-on-year change
National
$595,568 $92,404 18.4%
NSW
$769,459 $125,112 19.4%
Vic
$618,602 $120,032 24.1%
Qld
$513,649 $73,604 16.7%
WA
$439,578 $22,868 5.5%
SA
$421,801 $38,016 9.9%
ACT
$585,859 $58,434 11.1%
TAS
$445,915 $73,175 19.6%
NT
$433,333 $53,271 14%

“Demand for Aussie housing remains firm, but affordability has decreased because home prices have surged more than wages,” Ryan Felsman, senior economist at CommSec noted.

“In November housing stock was high and the country’s two largest states were freshly out of lockdown, so it’s no surprise to see a rise in new lending,” RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said.

“Growth in property prices is starting to slow on the back of fixed rate rises and a crackdown by the regulator, but the opening up of borders this year will increase demand, keeping prices moving north,” she forecast.

The data did not include refinancing, nor renovation loans.

Renovation loans surged by 18 per cent in November to a record $569 million. The value of lending for renovations is up by a massive 115 per cent on a year ago.

Canstar analysis showed Australian mortgage holders refinanced $15.72 billion worth of loans to a new lender in November 2021, down 2.3% from October.

 

Article Source: www.urban.com.au

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