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Property Industry Expects Interest Rate Rise

Property industry confidence levels are near record highs but there are rumblings that interest rates could to increase soon.

The ANZ/Property Council industry survey for the March quarter found confidence levels has improved drastically since the pandemic started, led by the residential sector.

The survey canvassed the views of more than 830 respondents—including, owners, developers, agents, managers, consultants and government—across all major industry sectors and regions.

The results revealed respondents also believe there will be an interest rate increase during the next 12 months.

This comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia closely watches the housing market as “cyclically low-interest rates and rising asset prices create a risk of excessive borrowing”.

According to the RBA financial stability review, this could lead to financial instability particularly if lending standards are weakened, which could expose lenders to large losses.

Interest rate changes

Property Industry

^Source: RBA 

For the meantime, the Reserve Bank decided to hold the official cash rate at 0.1 per cent for the fifth time in a row.

Despite expecting an interest rate rise, survey respondents were confident about work expectations, national growth and house prices in the next year.

Property Council of Australia chief executive Ken Morrison said the expectations for house prices were at the highest level in the survey’s 10-year history.

“When the property industry is confident it is exceptional news for the entire national economy because it employs so many people—more than 1.4-million Australians,” Morrison said.

“While the economy still faces significant challenges, the property industry is clearly buoyed by the speed of our turnaround and the strong demand they are seeing, particularly in the residential and industrial sectors.”

ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said that for now the combination of record low mortgage interest rates and targeted stimulus was clearly supporting the housing sector.

“Property sentiment has improved again, reflecting stellar economic performance, a large pipeline of work for the coming year and a strong outlook for property prices,” Emmett said

The survey also revealed an easing of concerns about the office sector as more CBD workers return to their work places.

 

Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com

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Opinion

Safe as Brisbane houses

Brisbane

If I had to pick the safest major capital city market to purchase an investment property, I would choose to buy a detached house in Brisbane.

My reasoning is straightforward.

First, Brisbane’s relative cost against Sydney and Melbourne is running near the lowest level in almost 50 years.

 

Article Source: www.macrobusiness.com.au

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Opinion

Are first home buyers really priced out of the property market?

OPINION

Some people will kill for a bit of free publicity. The first thing to be murdered is the truth, in the quest for cheap limelight.

In real estate, a perennial favourite among those who seek media profile is the affordability crisis. This is a ripper yarn because it tugs at the tear ducts of all Australians whose hearts bleed for desperate young couples who can’t afford to buy a home.

It’s rubbish, of course, but the truth is always optional in these kinds of storylines.

First, here’s the reality. The past year has been the best time ever to be a first-home buyer in Australia. The level of government assistance has never been higher and the cost of finance has never been lower. And investors have been fence-sitting so first-timers haven’t had a lot of competition.

And young home-buyers have responded in record numbers.

home buyers

Auburn Square 35 Northumberland Road, Auburn NSW 3044 

Yet, despite all of that, there are organisations who have managed to construct a scenario where no one can afford to buy or that prospective first-timers have to save for 10 or 12 years to cobble together a deposit for a meagre dwelling.

Here are some recent headlines from mainstream media:-

– “Policy failures see houses become unattainable for young Australians”

– “Australian housing affordability worsens amid fears proposed safe lending laws repeal will lead to debt disaster”

– “Tensions in housing market as affordability worsens”

– “First home buyers take 10 years to save for a deposit”

– “From down payment to dealbreaker: Average house deposit now exceeds 100k”

Those last two screamers are the biggest lies.

How do they concoct such scenarios, at a time when FHBs are out there buying in such large numbers?

home buyers

Kew Schofields Stage 2- Georgette 23-27 Schofields Road, Schofields NSW 2762 

Very easily, so as long as you’re not bothered by a conscience. You simply create a formula in which every component is a work a fiction.

Here’s the proposition they put forward:-

– How long does it take the average young couple on typical incomes to save a 20% deposit to buy the median-priced house in Sydney?

It’s difficult to imagine a scenario more distant from the reality of most FHBs across the nation.

Here’s why …

– They stipulate a 20% deposit. Nobody saves a 20% deposit. You don’t need to. You can currently get into a first home with a 5% deposit without having to pay mortgage insurance.

– First-home buyers don’t buy median-priced properties, not in Sydney or anywhere else. They buy in the lower price ranges.

– Why houses? Many young Australians prefer apartments and not just because they’re much cheaper. Why do these fictitious scenarios never insert apartments into the equation?

– Why this focus on our most expensive? Why not Brisbane or Perth or Adelaide?

home buyers

Quay Waterfront Newstead 57 Skyring Terrace, Newstead QLD 4006

So here’s a realistic equation to give a true appraisal of the prospects for young buyers: how long does it take to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in the lower price quartiles in Brisbane?

Or how long does it take to save the required deposit to buy an apartment in Adelaide or Perth or Hobart?

Or, given the predominate trend in Australian real estate, how long to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in Orange or Wollongong or the Sunshine Coast or Bendigo or Geelong?

Those are scenarios that equate to the reality faced by most prospective first-home buyers.

But you will never see that equation presented in mainstream media, because it doesn’t serve the desired outcome: a screaming negative headline, with the truth optional.

 

Article Source: www.urban.com.au

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Opinion

First-home buyers are big budget winners

home buyers

Help for first-home buyers and single parents to own a home and continuation of an income tax break for low and middle income workers are among key measures that will put more cash in the pockets of Australians following the 2021-22 federal budget.

There is an the increase in the First Home Buyer Super Saver Scheme to a maximum of $50,000, up from $30,000, that can be withdrawn from superannuation to put towards a house deposit. The increase comes into effect on July 1, 2022.

There are annual contribution caps to how much can be made in voluntary contributions that have to be saved in super first, under the scheme, before the money can be withdrawn.

Pension loan scheme

There are changes to the Pension Loan Scheme which allows almost anyone who owns a property and has reached pension age to take out a “reverse mortgage” from the government, where the balance of the loan is repaid when the property is sold.

The scheme pays an income up to an amount that is equal to the maximum age pension.

Under changes that come into effect from July 1, 2022, up to 50 per cent of the maximum annual age pension can be accessed as a lump sum each year. The total amount accessible under the scheme has not changed.

“[The change] is important as it could allow older Australians to access the capital in their home to pay for large, one-off items, such as medical services or home repairs, which they may not otherwise be able to afford,” says Colonial First State general manager Kelly Power.

Downsizer contribution

To help free-up homes for younger families, from July 1, 2022, those aged at least 60 will be able to make a one-off contribution of up to $300,000 per person, or $600,000 per couple, to their super when they sell a home that they have owned for at least 10 years. The qualifying age is currently 65.

Jason Murray, chief of member experience at QSuper, says the downsizer contribution allows retirees to move to more suitable housing as their family size drops and to turn the capital tied up in their home into retirement income.

Family Home Guarantee

The newly introduced Family Home Guarantee (FHG) allows single parents with a maximum annual income of $125,000 to purchase a new or existing home with a minimum deposit of 2 per cent. It is available for property purchases of up to $700,000 in Sydney and $600,000 in Melbourne.

The scheme is limited to 10,000 places over four years; though, if the uptake is strong, the government could well add more places. The scheme starts on July 1.

Eliza Owen, head of research Australia at CoreLogic, says single parent households are largely headed by women, making up about 64 per cent of lone parent and lone-adult households.

“As a result, this policy may contribute toward narrowing the gender wealth gap,” she says.

Andrew Wilson, consultant economist at Archistar, estimates a single parent earning $125,000 using the FHG would be able to borrow about $500,000 at current interest rates to purchase a home.

However, that will still leave them with few options to purchase appropriate family friendly homes in Sydney and Melbourne, where prices are booming, Dr Wilson says.

New Home Guarantee

The government has also extended and renamed a scheme where first-home buyers with a maximum income for couples of $200,000 can purchase a home with a deposit of just 5 per cent.

The price ceilings for the New Home Guarantee are $950,000 in Sydney and $850,000 in Melbourne, with 10,000 places becoming available from July 1 to those seeking to build a new home or purchase a newly built home.

Dr Wilson says the measures to assist first-home buyers are a bit “ho-hum”, given recent rocketing property prices. “They are narrowly targeted and are unlikely to significantly stem an ongoing decline in activity from first-home buyers”, Dr Wilson says.

“Increasing activity from investors and rising property prices are likely to see first-home buyer activity fall by 20 per cent next year, and that is assuming full uptake of the schemes announced in the budget”, he says.

Tax relief

Tax relief will be extended for another year from July 1, in the form of retention of the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset. It is worth a maximum of $1080 for individuals and $2160 for couples, with the main benefits going to those earning between $48,000 and $90,000 a year.

The budget confirmed the current $10,560 cap on the childcare subsidy will be removed.

Families with two or more children aged 5 and under will receive an increase of up to 30 percentage points in the subsidy for their second and later children up to a maximum of 95 per cent of fees paid.

 

Article Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au

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