The ANZ has upgraded its housing market forecasts, tipping house prices to lift by 6 per cent next year before falling by 4 per cent in 2023 as the post-pandemic boom cools.
The bank is predicting the strongest gains will be in Brisbane, lifting by 9 per cent’ Hobart, by 8 per cent; and Melbourne, by 7 per cent.
Sydney, where the median house price is a record-breaking $1.5 million after a 30.4 per cent surge, will moderate to 6 per cent next year before dropping by 4 per cent in 2023.
ANZ chief economist Felicity Emmett said affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates would mean that the gains in house prices over the past year would not be repeated in 2022.
“We expect housing construction to grow another 15 per cent by mid-2022, before activity brought forward by government incentives starts to dry up,” Emmett said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia recently reiterated its stance that the cash rate would not be changed until inflation is sustainably within their 2 to 3 per cent target range, implying a requirement for tighter labour markets and a “material” boost in wages growth before the inflation requirement is met.
ANZ said it expected the RBA to leave the cash rate— currently at 0.1 per cent—on hold until the first half of 2023.
APRA said the move aimed to reinforce the stability of the system and ensure borrowers could meet the level of debt they took on today and in the future.
“Another lift in the buffer or a measure which targets a combination of high debt-to-income and high-LVR loans is the most likely in our view,” Emmett said.
“But financial conditions are already tightening and the market may do some of APRA’s work for it.
“Indeed, the rise in fixed mortgage rates over the past few weeks may see lending slow enough to obviate the need for further macroprudential measures.”
The total value of residential real estate in Australia is now worth a record-breaking $9.1 trillion—almost a third more than all superannuation, the ASX and commercial real estate combined.
Low interest rates, which has propelled market growth, and the increase in housing prices has since pushed up the level of debt Australian homeowners have entered into.
Corelogic head of research Tim Lawless said any early lift in interest rates posed additional downside risk for housing values as well as the economy as a whole.
“We are already seeing the rate of house price appreciation ease due to affordability pressures, rising stock levels and, as of November 1st, tighter credit conditions,” Lawless said.
“Once interest rates start to lift, there is a strong chance that housing prices will head in the opposite direction soon after.”
Last month, Westpac updated its forecasts with similar expectations for housing prices to lift by 8 per cent next year before moving into a “correction phase” and dropping by -5 per cent the year after.
Harcourts Australia chief operating officer Lisa Pennell told The Urban Developer the plethora of forward predictions, despite their “good intentions”, usually failed to hit the mark, as the market is “inherently difficult to forecast”.
“Never would this uncertainty be greater than in the midst of a global pandemic with so many variables at play,” Pennell said.
“Almost 18 months ago the popular predictions were for a major crash—so we would not hazard a guess on what may or may not happen two years down the track.
“What we can say is that while supply has increased post NSW and Victoria lockdowns providing more opportunities for buyers who’ve been waiting in the wings for some time, demand remains healthy and we expect to trade strongly throughout the remainder of the year.”
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
How prestige buyers shaped the Gold Coast’s record-breaking property boom
Two years ago, prestige property prices across the Gold Coast were all but becalmed on a stagnant sea that left luxury mansions sitting like flotsam and jetsam in the listings following a decade of static growth.
But just when it felt like the city’s gleam could fade, the perfect storm of COVID-19 and low interest rates propelled luxury home prices to unprecedented heights to cement a year of record-breaking growth that saw Surfers Paradise and Southport named two of the country’s top-selling suburbs.
Fuelled by a mammoth sea-change trend, home prices in primely positioned pockets across the ‘’glitter strip” rose by up to 44 per cent and shot 11 suburbs into the million-dollar-median club – a club that consisted of just Mermaid Beach and Surfers Paradise 12 months earlier.
The figures, lifted from Domain’s September House Price Report for 2021, revealed buyers converged on the luxury property sector like moths to a flame with Miami house prices shooting beyond 44 per cent to $1.205 million in a year and Mermaid Waters house prices rising by 41.9 per cent to $1.22 million.
In neighbouring Mermaid Beach, a colossal 32.4 per cent hike sent house prices to a historic $2.075 million.
But while the voracious growth decimated stock levels and burst the seaside dream for thousands of buyers hoping to bag a bargain by the beach, Ray White Surfers Paradise Group CEO Andrew Bell said after almost 24 months of price hikes the fever was breaking.
“Twenty months ago, you couldn’t have imagined the prices we’d achieve. This is the greatest boom in the history of the country … and the last thing I can remember that was close to this was 1988 and ’99 after the stock market crashed,” Bell said.
“People pulled their money out of shares and ploughed it back into real estate but it was short-lived. This boom is even stronger.
“The difference now is the cheap money. People are more cavalier with it and it’s so affordable.
“But all markets, whether it’s gold or oil, go through cycles and property is so aligned to the economic cycle. So, we were due for a boom … and if you follow the cycles, two years of a boom market is about as long as they last.
“Now there are signals out there showing the brakes are being applied whether that’s the regulations into borrowing [announced on November 1], chats about interest rates rising and then affordability being tested. You get half a dozen of those things like this and it’s like putting an anchor out.”
While the anchor might have been dropped, the city moved up the search rankings to top place for overseas buyers, according to PropTrack’s Overseas Search Data Report released last month, with units in Surfers Paradise topping the national list for sales value, according to figures found in the Domain House Price Report.
The mass return of expats could also see the anchor lifted in early next year, with the city’s annual auction – called The Event – tipped to be the best yet for the Ray White Surfers Paradise Group when it kicks off on January 23 at RACV Royal Pines Resort in Benowa.
Looking back over the past year, prestige property specialist Michael Kollosche, of real estate agency Kollosche, said the depth of the market was astonishing and had resulted in the firm collecting just over $230 million in unconditional sales in October alone.
The team also achieved a handful of jaw-dropping sales such as 159 Hedges Avenue, Mermaid Beach, which recently fetched $15.75 million.
“There have been a lot of sales in that $10 to $16 million range this year and a large portion of them were to locals with a few coming out of Sydney and Melbourne,” Kollosche said.
“I sold a block of land alone [900 square metres] at 139-141 Hedges Avenue for $17.5 million [in August].
“I think the market will remain reasonably stable over the next 12 months because the Gold Coast is well-positioned with the [Brisbane 2032 Olympics] and there’s a lot of infrastructure spending.”
For the team at Amir Prestige Property Agents, the year was equally fruitful, after principal and director Amir Mian collected a suburb-record-smashing $23.75 million for the spectacular 5 McMillan Court, Southport, in March this year.
The sale came hot on the heels of yet another record-breaking sale for the firm at 187-191 Hedges Avenue, which achieved $22.5 million in the latter half of last year.
“The Gold Coast is poised for a pretty good decade between now and the Olympics … and I think it’s to do with the number of buyers who want clean air, a nice environment and a nice back yard,” Mian said.
“A highlight sale for us was 41-45 The Promenade, Isle of Capri, which sold for $26.998 million … all our top sales were pretty much suburb record-breakers … and people are more than just getting caught in the Gold Coast movement – they are putting their kids in the school here, and they are changing their jobs to live here.”
Top three Gold Coast homes on the market:
2585 Gracemere Circuit, Hope Island
Versace-inspired seven-bedroom, seven-bathroom mansion on a sprawling 5371-square-metre block with river and hinterland views.
Additional features include a swimming pool, spa and a king-sized pontoon.
Claire Dai from Kollosche is selling the home with a guide of $16.8 million.
5681 Anchorage Terrace, Sanctuary Cove
Meticulous six-bedroom, six-bathroom waterfront estate on a 2360-square-metre block.
Luxury additions include marble floors, a gold-class style home cinema, a billiards room and a double-length pontoon.
Amir Mian from Amir Mian Prestige is selling the home with a guide of $12.85 million.
22-24 Admiralty Drive, Paradise Waters
A prime 1351 square metres of one of the Gold Coast’s most elite pockets with striking architectural finishes throughout the five-bedroom, seven-bathroom home that features a media room, an enclosed indoor swimming pool, and a riverfront pontoon.
Robert Graham from Ray White Surfers Paradise takes the home to auction on January 23.
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
Best market we’ve ever seen’ – QLD sales achieve record results
The Queensland market has been roaring throughout 2021, with median prices up around +20 per cent for the year across the state.
Where other areas in the country are now beginning to soften, vendors in the Sunshine State are still experiencing incredible selling conditions that are leading to standout results everywhere you look.
We spoke to top agents in Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast to explore some of their recent sales and just how strong the local market is.
Sunshine Coast homes attract record prices in clear seller’s market
“I can’t recall the amount of activity I’ve seen internationally and interstate coming to Pelican Waters and particularly the Sunshine Coast,” explains Linda Feltman of McGrath in Caloundra.
“Everything is selling well above expectations. It’s even surprising agents sometimes.”
Since the pandemic hit, the Sunshine Coast has been one of the most desirable parts of the country when it comes to property. With its ideal weather, minimal impacts from Covid shutdowns and overall lifestyle benefits, it’s easy to see why.
The sale of 26 Millennium Circuit in Pelican Waters, the lakeside suburb which sits on the southern tip of the Sunshine Coast region, is a great example of the success sellers in the area are experiencing.
The stunning lakeside home boasted four bedrooms plus a guest wing, huge open living and dining, a gold class cinema, a large pool and spa, and views of the internationally renowned Pelican Waters Golf Club.
“From the moment it went online, we had 66 enquiries within 24 hours,” Ms Feltman says.
The owners were hoping for any offers over $2m, and with the huge levels of buyer interest, they ended up securing a fantastic result at $2.2m, a record sale for the lake area.
8 Bond St was another big hit for the area. The modern, sun-drenched four-bedder was on the market for offers over $1.495m, and again expectations were exceeded when the deal was done at $1.8m.
“On average, at the moment we’re getting anywhere from 100 to 170 enquiries per property,” Ms Feltman explains.
“We’re also dealing with a minimum of three to four offers. One of my properties the other day had nine offers.
“We’ve got huge demand and we haven’t got enough listings, so the supply is low and the demand is high. So whenever you have those two factors—and it’s like that at the moment—obviously it’s a seller’s market, and there are a lot of families that need to purchase on the Sunshine Coast.”
Brisbane sellers in the ‘best market we’ve ever seen’
“If I was to describe the market quite simply I would describe it as an absolute seller’s market,” says Tony O’Doherty, principal at Belle Property Bulimba.
“It’s often hard to know what market you’re in, and it’s very rare that it’s such an extreme one-sided market,” he explains.
“There is no line in the sand… the market has been as good as it’s been in the Brisbane environment.”
The Queensland capital has, similarly to the Sunshine Coast, been experiencing a historic boom that’s led to some remarkable results for sellers.
30 Grosvenor St in Balmoral is what Mr O’Doherty calls a very good example as to how the market is performing.
The five-bed family home attracted a wide array of buyers including people from overseas and interstate.
“We had people from America, Byron Bay, Sydney, Melbourne, and a lot of Brisbanites,” he says, adding that despite the media attention on how many out-of-towners have been showing interest in Queensland real estate, “most of our transactions are people who already live in the suburb.”
The owners of the Balmoral house originally purchased the property for $1.3m in 2015. Since then it hasn’t undergone any significant renovations.
After debating when to sell, they felt the market conditions gave them the confidence to list. Fast forward to November 2021 and it sold for $2.15m, a staggering +66 per cent increase in just six years.
Mr O’Doherty also points to the recent sale of 22 Orchard St in nearby Hawthorne as a demonstration of the current power of the market.
Just last year the owners had the three-bedroom house on the market for an extended period and couldn’t achieve a $1m price. In the 2021 market, the property sold for $1.415m.
These kinds of results aren’t only being seen in a particular price bracket, either. “It’s right the way through the market. It’s the million-dollar product, it’s the seven million dollar product, and everything in between,” Mr O’Doherty says.
“If you are a seller and you want to transact your home, this is the best market we’ve ever seen.”
What’s next for Queensland property?
While there’s talk of the property boom reaching its peak in other key markets like Sydney and Melbourne, the near future still looks very bright in the Sunshine State.
Ms Feltman expects that, once the state’s borders open in mid-December, there may be a short lull in activity as families reunite.
“But after that, once mid-January comes along, I think it’s going to be extremely busy because people will be up here and they’re going to be ready to go into real estate mode and need to buy fairly quickly,” she says.
“I envisage the next six months on the Sunshine Coast will be phenomenal, and then after that, it will depend.
“I think people will start to travel again comfortably, I think that’s going to definitely play a part in the real estate industry.”
She also points out that the 2032 Olympics announcement has set off a wave of new investor interest, so the long-term growth prospects for the region are extremely strong too.
Mr O’Doherty notes that Brisbane has seen a huge amount of growth in a short period, to the point that it puts things in uncharted territory and makes the future difficult to predict.
“This is not a natural economy, you’ve got a lot of money circulating that wouldn’t be if it wasn’t for Covid,” he says.
“I believe we’re in such a heavily geared seller’s market, if you are a seller waiting to sell—what are you waiting for?
“If you’re looking to buy, if you buy the right block size in the right location, it’ll never go backwards. If you’re looking to sell, it’s an absolute seller’s market.”
Article Source: www.openagent.com.au
Where to find Australia’s most affordable and liveable suburbs: PRD report
Middle-ring suburbs across the country’s capital cities are the best bet for house hunters seeking both affordability and liveability, a new report has found
Rapidly rising property prices in Australia have seen premiums climb for desirable pockets, but liveable suburbs are not completely out of reach for those on more of a budget, the latest PRD Affordable and Liveable Property Guide shows.
The report identified suburbs to watch within a 20-kilometre radius of the Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane central business districts, and within 10 kilometres of the Hobart city centre.
Suburbs had to have relatively affordable median prices, decent rental yields and a high estimated value of future project and infrastructure development – to ensure the suburbs showed signs of sustainable economic growth. They also had to have low crime rates, an unemployment rate on par with, or lower than, the state average, and proximity to amenities like schools, public transport, shopping centres, green spaces and health services.
“It’s not just about living in the cheapest suburb,” PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo said of the report. “But also about being able to live in a suburb that is well serviced by public transport, amenities and everything you need [for the most affordable price point].”
Finding suburbs that met the criteria had become increasingly challenging in the current market, Dr Mardiasmo said, with the number of such suburbs in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane halving over the past six months. However, there were still some pockets where good liveability cost less of a premium.
Here’s where buyers should cast their gaze in each of the included cities.
|AFFORDABLE AND LIVEABLE SUBURBS – UNITS|
|Suburb||Median price||Rental yield||Future projects|
|Source: PRD Affordable and Liveable Property Guides 2nd Half 2021.|
Brisbane had the largest proportion of houses available for buyers with lower to middle budgets, with more than a quarter of sales within the metro region this year below $700,000. However, Brisbane buyers need to spend more of a premium to purchase in a liveable suburb.
While Brisbane, along with Hobart, was typically thought of as a more affordable capital city, many of the lower-priced suburbs failed to satisfy other criteria such as liveability, investment return and future project development, the report noted.
The top selections were largely to the city’s north, with the exceptions of Birkdale and Oxley.
“Many people think that when they need to go to an affordable place, they need to go to the northern part of the city … but Oxley is in the southwest and Birkdale is in the east,” Dr Mardiasmo said, adding that more established areas were often overlooked for newer suburbs where buyers knew prices would be lower.
Both Birkdale ($720,000) and Oxley ($695,000) were more expensive than Bracken Ridge ($624,000) in the north, which was the third pick for house hunters.
The north is also where those after an apartment should look, with McDowall, Gordon Park and Kedron making the list. Each had a median unit price below $450,000 – a price tag that 45 per cent of Brisbane metro apartments sold below this year.
The cost of liveability, particularly for house hunters, remains the highest in Hobart, where residents need to pay the largest premium for liveable suburbs. Low supply meant many of Hobart’s liveable suburbs were priced above the city’s median, meaning they failed the affordability test, the report noted, while more affordable suburbs did not pass the liveability criteria.
“The perception of Hobart being the most affordable place have changed, we’re seeing record-breaking sales and a lot of it is to do with little supply, ” Dr Mardiasmo said.
Oakdowns, about a 20-minute drive from the CBD, made the top picks for both house and units, with medians of $595,000 for houses and $550,000 for units.
Howrah ($705,000) and Berriedale ($480,000) were also among the picks for house-hunters, while Moonah ($480,000) and Glenorchy ($410,000) were selected for apartment buyers.
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
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