ANZ economists have significantly revised house price forecasts from a bearish 10 per cent decline to a 9 per cent lift in 2021.
The counterweight of low rates and government stimulus has flowed through to housing construction, approvals and sentiment, economists Adelaide Timbrell and Felicity Emmett said.
The peak-to-trough decline will be limited to 2 per cent, with Perth set to benefit from a 12 per cent lift as Brisbane and Hobart follow with gains of more than 9 per cent now forecast.
Sydney prices are expected to rise at about the national average of 8.8 per cent, while Melbourne will continue to lag slightly at 7.8 per cent.
“Our view that house prices would decline around 10 per cent, peak-to-trough, has proven too pessimistic: low rates have trumped factors like elevated unemployment and low population growth,” Emmett and Timbrell said.
Stagnant population growth will continue to weigh on demand and place downward pressure on prices, however the RBA’s latest rate cut has proven a heavier offsetting factor as debt serviceability hits 20-year highs.
ANZ’s latest housing market update comes as auction clearance rates hit 75 per cent across all capital city markets over the weekend. A total 1,739 homes were taken to auction, compared to 2,590—at a 70 per cent clearance rate—the same time last year.
Sydney’s market performed well, according to Corelogic’s weekly figures, returning a 76.6 per cent clearance rate while Melbourne posted a strong post-lockdown result with 603 scheduled auctions returning a 73.5 per cent clearance rate.
Emmett and Timbrell said the momentum will continue as policy and lending support mitigates 2021 labour market risks.
“Owner-occupiers, and particularly first home buyers, are driving the market. Clearly a significant cohort of buyers with stable employment are keen to take advantage of historically low interest rates,” Emmett and Timbrell said.
Investor participation, in contrast, remained well removed from the 30 per cent-plus levels seen in 2015, making up less than 15 per cent of new loans, according to the ABS’ latest lending figures.
Emmett and Timbrell said that the impact of waning demand from investors and new migrants will hit the apartment market hardest.
“The overall weakness in the rental market is flowing through to investor demand, for both established and new housing.
“However, low rates and government stimulus are more than offsetting these negatives.”
“The recent announcement that the Victorian government will spend $5.3 billion on social housing will further lift activity, while news that a vaccine may be widely available by the June quarter will only increase confidence in the housing market.”
Housing market no longer a source of risk: CBA
Meanwhile, CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird has indicated that the unprecedented amount of fiscal stimulus means the housing market is no longer a key source of risk.
Aird said the downside risks of lower net overseas migration and house price falls have “diminished materially”.
“It is clear that price falls will only end up being modest nationally. Indeed prices are now rising in most capital cities.
CBA updated house price forecasts in early September for a 6 per cent peak-to-trough decline and a strong rebound in prices in the second half of 2021.
“We believe the risks to our forecasts are skewed to the upside,” Aird said.
“Near-term momentum indicators of the housing market have continued to strengthen and our home price model is signalling that solid price rises could be imminent.
“We no longer expect dwelling investment to be a drag on the economy in 2021 and forecast growth in renovation activity to offset lower new construction.”
The post “House Prices Set to Grow 9pc in 2021” by Ana Narvaez appeared first on the theurbandeveloper.com Blog
Brisbane and QLD property market update – December 2020
If there is a defining theme for the Brisbane market over 2020 it has been it’s resilience in the face of a pandemic which has put a halt to interstate and international tourist arrivals for much of the year.
This has not stopped housing values in the city reaching new record highs, with property analysts agreeing that the city, as well as parts of south east Queensland, are on a trajectory of strong growth into 2021. This is against a backdrop of rising values across the major capitals, as the national home value index rose +1.0 per cent in December; the third consecutive month where dwelling values have grown.
Nationally the residential real estate market has proved remarkably resilient, despite a wobble between March and September when COVID protocols interrupted the market – but overall property prices have held steady.
This is largely due to three factors, including the relative success Australia has had controlling the virus, record low interest rates and the government stimulus that has supported businesses and individuals throughout much of the pandemic.
Now let’s take a look at the Brisbane market and how it has performed over December.
Brisbane dwellings continued their steady, determined progress advancing +1.1 per cent over December, for a median price of $521,686. This brings the Queensland capital up +2.1 per cent for the quarter and +3.6 per cent for the year. This places it in the middle of the pack for the major capitals, a position – characterised by a steady and less volatile growth trajectory.
CoreLogic data reports that houses continue to outperform units across the city, advancing +2.1 per cent over December. Property investor and commentator Michael Yardney identifies Queenslanders’ preference for houses over units as the main reasons for this trend.
CoreLogic data reports that houses continue to outperform units across the city, advancing +2.1 per cent over December
If you are looking for suburb specific highlights CoreLogic’s Best of the Best Report 2020 identified Teneriffe (inner city Brisbane) as the Queensland suburb with the highest median house value of $1,859,323.
Michael Yardney points out that, “…in recent months houses in Brisbane have enjoyed improved demand and the number of transactions in the Brisbane housing market are higher than they were pre-Coronavirus.”
He goes on to clarify that property markets within any city are inherently fragmented, and his data shows that, “…freestanding Brisbane houses within 5-7 km of the CBD or in good school catchment zones have grown in value strongly.”
CoreLogic data appears to confirm this, with dwellings in the upper quartile up +1.25 per cent over December. Yardney cautions against investing in certain segments of the Brisbane market which have underperformed, including high-rise apartments, new and off the plan apartments and new housing estates in blue-collar areas.
Like many other regional markets, high demand for property in specific Queensland hotspots like the Sunshine Coast has driven the market up +6.9 per cent over 2020. Contrast this with Brisbane metro’s growth of +3.6 per cent over the same timeframe for some perspective.
Houses dominate sales in most regional markets, and they are posting solid growth here, up +1.5 per cent over December, while units grew a respectable +1.0 per cent over the month.
Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast recorded the highest growth for houses up +27.6 per cent over the year. For units, Noosa Heads has the highest median values at $898,838, while Currumbin on the Gold Coast posted the highest growth over the year advancing +24.0 per cent.
According to property forecasters Hotspotting other regional postcodes showing promise for the 2021, include Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Townsville – with a recovery in resources behind some of these locations. Toowoomba is also showing promise as new infrastructure projects stimulate the local economy.
Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast recorded the highest growth for houses up +27.6 per cent over the year
Queensland rental market update
Overall Brisbane house rentals have held steady, with a drop in asking rents mainly impacting the inner-city apartment market. According to the SQM, Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is currently around 4.0 per cent and for units is around 5.2 per cent.
CoreLogic data indicates that West Gladstone is the Queensland postcode with the biggest change in rents over the year, up +17.4 per cent; while Mackay/Isaac/Whitsundays has the best rental yield of +14.6 per cent.
CoreLogic data indicates that West Gladstone is the Queensland postcode with the biggest change in rents over the year, up +17.4 per cent
The holiday rental market in many regional locations has been impacted by the COVID flight from cities, with rental vacancy rates in some coastal locations close to zero. CoreLogic data shows that the Gold Coast had a vacancy rate of 1.9 per cent in December ‘19, which dropped to 0.2 per cent in December ‘20. It is a similar story on the Sunshine Coast (1.9 per cent vs 0.1 per cent) and Noosa (1.8 per cent vs 0.2 per cent) over the same timeframe.
The outlook for 2021
Overall the medium/long term outlook is positive for Brisbane, with Westpac forecasting that property values could increase +20 per cent in 2022-23.
Realestate.com.au Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee believes that if low interest rates, government incentives for buyers and the Australian economy continues to reopen, ‘prospects for home sellers in 2021 are positive.’
Michael Yardney believes that property markets will perform strongly in 2021 and 2022 based on the removal of overly restrictive lending rules, the job-friendly Federal budget, and the prospect of no interest rate rises for at least 3 years.
CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless sounds a word of caution, warning that any fresh COVID outbreaks, ‘…would set back the economic recovery and have a negative, although temporary impact on housing markets.’
Article Source: www.openagent.com.au
Knockdowns and urban sprawl: Four property predictions for 2021
The property market was nothing short of unpredictable and difficult to read through 2020.
Yet we look to be entering a year where all the economists and property research houses are predicting positive growth across all markets. Who would have thought?
There will be anomalies, of course, but here are the trends you can count on in 2021.
Affordability and lifestyle: Regional centres within 90 minutes of Sydney and Melbourne
Housing unaffordability has been driving this social trend and COVID-19 has come along and really amplified it.
With densely populated cities more expensive and harder to navigate, and in some cases, due to lockdowns, not offering the quality of life we all crave, many saw 2020 as a year to reflect and redirect themselves to outer regions where price point and lifestyle is more favourable.
We already see this in Queensland, where only 48% of the population live in the capital city of Brisbane and the rest is dispersed out to major hubs such as the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Ipswich and many more.
For context, 76% of Victoria’s population live in Melbourne, while Sydney sits at 65%.
The towns must have adequate transport and ease of access to main arterials.
Getting to the capital cities will still be important for these sea and tree changers, as will the central location within the town.
Walkability and education are important for families as are healthcare services for downsizers. Keep this in mind when assessing the property itself.
These regions are also sought after by investors who are keen to establish a ‘foothold’ in one of the holiday regions, such as Daylesford, the Mornington Peninsula or the Bellarine Peninsula.
With a number of factors — such as less overseas holiday travel, low-interest rates and less commuting — allowing for more cash in the bank and a greater focus on what matters most, families want to secure an ‘escape property’ for themselves, a destination they can flee too should lockdowns or pandemics strike again.
More ‘knockdown and rebuild strategies’ in the middle-ring suburbs
According to McCrindle Research, 78% of people surveyed believe working from home is here to stay with most expecting this to be two or three days a week.
But how many of us actually have the space to do this, especially in dual-income houses?
Renovations can be expensive and unpredictable.
Whereas the growing trend of knocking down an old 150 square metre, 1950s–1970s weatherboard or brick home, on 400–800 square metres of land, and replacing it with new build, can not only solve the working-from-home problem, but also result in a very profitable project.
Our smaller cities take flight
With less interest in moving to the big smoke from our smaller cities, natural-born residents will consider staying put and working in their home cities while the uncertainty is around.
The big question is, how compelling will this be in the long term?
The big cities of Melbourne and Sydney house our largest institutions, banks, insurers, super funds and the head offices of most major corporates outside of mining and resources.
They will eventually draw talent from interstate and overseas, and although moving home to Adelaide or Brisbane might be possible if you’re already employed, landing a job from interstate and never being in the office is quite difficult, even impossible.
In summary, the smaller cities of Perth and Adelaide will be strong next year as residents stay put or head home, but in the long run, Melbourne and Sydney will prevail and deliver superior return on investment as they offer higher paying jobs for more people and this drives the property market.
Is the inner-city out of favour?
Apartments are not one property style on their own, there is low rise, high rise, concierge, and facilities, versus art deco walk-ups, with no lift, with plenty of character and charm.
And many more versions of these lifestyle-driven properties are often bought for convenience and affordability.
Generally speaking, the bigger buildings will suffer, although locations such as East Melbourne and Spring Street in Melbourne’s CBD are always sought after and rarely drop in value.
But is this the best place to invest in 2021?
No! Houses will always outperform in the inner-city regions as they are not building them anymore, if anything they are slowing decreasing in numbers to make way for apartments and townhouses.
It’s a simple supply and demand equation.
Expats will be heading home and if returning from New York, London, Hong Kong and LA will be used to the cosmopolitan lifestyle and see the capital city lifestyles as less congested and more liveable than where they’ve come from.
This influx of established wealth will make up for any city escapers who are selling down or moving to the regions.
The cities will bounce back and continue to be our central place of business, leisure and events.
The beautiful established parks and gardens, along with the best food and experiences in town, will draw people back. Plus, being ‘central’ with quick access to the best schools, arterials and major shopping hubs will mean these 3–10km regions will be highly sought after.
Article Source: www.smartcompany.com.au
Queensland’s booming real estate market to go on for ‘years to come
Wealth management firm Morgans has tipped house prices to continue to rise throughout 2021 and possibly for “years to come’’.
The forecast follows a strong December in the real estate market with Ray White recording $4 billion in unconditional sales in the month in Australia. Almost $1 billion of that was in Queensland.
Morgans Stockbroking economist Michael Knox said the recovery in house prices was healthy.
“It has years to run as full-time employment recovers over the next few years with the coming business cycle,’’ he said.
The likelihood of interest rates rising was also low with Knox believing that the Reserve Bank would struggle to achieve its inflation target until unemployment was below 5 per cent.
“It will take years to achieve that level of unemployment. It is very unlikely that inflation is going to be a problem during this period. Our view is that full employment in the Australian economy is at 4.5 per cent.
“We think it’ll take not less than four years for growth to get unemployment down to that level.’’
Ray White managing director Dan White said its December total sales of $6 billion were up 60 per cent on the same time in 2019.
“In Australia alone, we recorded almost $4 billion in sales, up 50 per cent, with a record result in Victoria to cap off an incredible recovery given extended lockdowns across that state. New Zealand recorded its sixth consecutive record month, with $1.9 billion in sales which was 87 per cent higher than last year
The Real Estate Institute of Queensland’s vacancy data for the December quarter showed Brisbane’s inner city rental market was recovering and was now “the only healthy rental market in Queensland”.
Rental vacancies were now at 3.3 per cent, down from 5 per cent previously.
Beyond Brisbane’s CBD, rental vacancies around the city’s middle ring remain extremely tight, with a quarterly rate of 1.6 per cent including Hawthorne (1.4 per cent), New Farm (1.9 per cent), Paddington (2.1 per cent) and St Lucia (1.7 per cent).
Further out into Brisbane’s outer ring and vacancies are even tighter, recording a quarterly rate of 1.3 per cent.
Article source: inqld.com.au
- Property Management6 years ago
7 Common GST Mistakes On Property
- Residential4 years ago
Ipswich Proves Frontier In Affordable Housing
- Infrastructure3 years ago
Decision on horizon for key marina section of huge North Harbour development at Burpengary
- Market Place3 years ago
How to make $1 million ‘flipping’ houses
- Developments3 years ago
Brisbane and interstate investors drawn to up-and-coming King Street precinct
- Market Place3 years ago
Moreton Bay makes top 10 list of places to invest in property
- Brisbane2 years ago
Queensland leads the way in market recovery
- Developments4 years ago
Caboolture West could be Australia’s next major regional centre