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House Price Surge Continues in ‘Rapid Recovery’ Corelogic

House Price Surge Continues in ‘Rapid Recovery’ Corelogic (1)

Australia’s housing market is now five months into its recovery, as Sydney and Melbourne drive the turnaround with values up by 2.7 and 2.2 per cent respectively for the month of November.

The national index recorded an increase of 1.7 per cent for the month, with all capital cities but Darwin recording a lift in values.

Corelogic described this as the largest monthly rise in the national index since 2003.

The November results see Corelogic’s national home value index move into positive annual growth territory for the first time since April 2018, with Australia’s dwelling values now 0.1 per cent higher over the past twelve months.

“The Australian housing market is now five months into an unexpected period of rapid recovery,” Corelogic head of research Tim Lawless said.

“The question is, how long can such a high pace of capital gains be sustained?”

Taking in the latest Corelogic data, BIS Oxford Economics says indicators show that sales volumes are still down “significantly on the levels of a year ago”.

As a result, BIS expects “quarterly price growth to slow significantly over the second half of this financial year to June 2020 as listings increase”.


Change in dwelling values

House Price Surge Continues in ‘Rapid Recovery’ Corelogic (2)

Lawless said that the market is yet to be tested on higher supply levels, with advertised listing numbers remaining seasonally low through spring.

“Considering wages and household income growth remains low,” Lawless added, “economic conditions are losing momentum and housing affordability is once again worsening, from an already high base in the largest cities, there are likely to be some headwinds in maintaining such a fast recovery.”

“With interest rates likely to track lower in 2020, we could see additional stimulus counteracting some of these headwinds,” Lawless said.

RBA governor Philip Lowe last week said that the central bank had ruled out quantitative easing as an economic stimulus measure, but that it would become an option to “be considered” at a cash rate of 0.25 per cent, “but not before that”.

While Australia’s economy has been benefiting from low interest rates, ongoing investment in infrastructure combined with the stronger outlook in the resources sector, analysts have predicted rates to be cut to 0.25 per cent by April next year.


Index results as at November 30 2019: Corelogic

House Price Surge Continues in ‘Rapid Recovery’ Corelogic (3)

The index shows early signs of improvement in Brisbane’s market with growth of 1.8 per cent for the 3 months to November, and a slight 0.8 per cent uplift for the month.

Corelogic’s national dwelling value index has recovered by 4.7 per cent since hitting its trough in June, but nationally home values remain 4.1 per cent below their 2017 peak.

Four of Australia’s capital cities returned to positive annual growth, led by Hobart, up by 4.2 per cent, Canberra with a 3 per cent rise, Melbourne up 2.2 per cent for the year, and Sydney, up 1.6 per cent.

While the largest declines remain concentrated in Darwin, down 10.9 per cent and Perth.

Perth’s housing rebound

While Perth’s housing market is down 7.7 per cent for the year, it recorded a slight 0.4 per cent uplift in the November results.

Dwelling values have been trending lower since mid-2014, the index notes this is down a cumulative 21.3 per cent through to the end of November.

“Over the past thirteen years, Perth has seen house values move from being the most expensive across the capital cities to now be the lowest,” Lawless said.

“Great news for first home buyers, however Perth home owners have seen a material reduction in their wealth over the past five and a half years.”

Looking ahead, BIS noted that by June next year, it expects Sydney median house prices could be up nearly 14 per cent on the June quarter of 2019.

While in Melbourne BIS forecast house prices could increase 12 per cent over the year to June 2020.

 

 

Source: theurbandeveloper.com

 

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Brisbane

Aria Lodges Plans for ‘Urban Forest’ Tower

Aria Lodges Plans for ‘Urban Forest’ Tower (1)

Aria Property Group has lodged plans to build a 30-storey tower with 1,003 trees called “The Urban Forest” at South Bank, Brisbane.

The plans feature 382 apartments, two levels of common rooftop space, an array of greenery as well as a 1,350sq m public park at the base of the building and ground floor retail.

The design for 88 Merivale Street, South Brisbane by Koichi Takada Architects is marketed as the “greenest residential building in the world”.

The Brisbane-based developer has had the South Bank block under contract since 2019.

Three sites were included in the development application at corner block opposite the Brisbane Exhibition and Convention Centre and Brisbane State High School.

The site was listed for more than $20 million, according to industry sources.

Aria Lodges Plans for ‘Urban Forest’ Tower (3)

Aria development manager Michael Hurley said despite the tough conditions for apartments in Brisbane they had to focus on the things they could change, which seemed to be working.

“The market’s the market, we can’t control that but we can control what we do,” Hurley said.

“You’ve got to learn and there’s lots of takeaways from what we’ve all been through in the last three or four months.

“There’s a lot of lessons and a lot of good feedback and we’re making sure that we’re consistently evolving our offering and listening to our owners and tenants as to what they want.

“So far we’ve been fortunate we’ve had a good following and our peers have said what we’re doing seems to be working.”

Hurley said they wanted this new building to set the benchmark for green urban centres.

“In time we want Brisbane to be mentioned in the same breath as Singapore as a global leader in green buildings and sustainability,” Hurley said.

Aria Lodges Plans for ‘Urban Forest’ Tower (2)

Architect Koichi Takada said their practice was promoting cities to inspire the next generation to help create mass greening for a sustainable and greener future.

“The Urban Forest is a vertical park which features five times the trees found in nearby Musgrave Park and a Green Plot Ratio [at] 292 per cent [of] the site area in gardens; equivalent to taking over 150 cars off the road each year,” Takada said.

“It is important to bring such a building to Brisbane at this time, as unlike more populated cities, Brisbane still offers abundant opportunity to define and shift the city to a more natural and humanised approach.

“The result is the greenest residential building with generous backyards in the sky and offers a healthier way to live.”

The Urban Forest residential tower planting included a variety of tree species which would flower in different seasons.

The ground level Glenelg Street park plans also featured a number of trees along with a stage, outdoor classrooms, amphitheatre and event space.

 

 

 

This article is republished from theurbandeveloper.com under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Brisbane

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020.

How is the market going?

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020

It is probably the question I am asked most, sometimes many times each day.

Specifically referring to the Brisbane market, as I have been buying for our clients here for over a decade and investing for myself for close to two decades.

In my position, there is one thing I can offer that the media and many theorists cannot – an on the ground perspective.

And I can assure you, what is making headlines in the media currently, is not playing out at ground level – in the right locations.

Let me explain what I mean when I say the “right locations” or talk about “Brisbane” in general.

Brisbane

When I say Brisbane, I am talking about select suburbs within 10km from the Brisbane CBD.

Suburbs where there is significantly higher demand due to employment, public transport, superior schooling and education, along with greenspace and lifestyle precincts.

And on the flip side, there is very, very tight supply, with next to no new land available anywhere.

Interestingly, unlike our bigger City cousins, you can expect a vastly different environment buying just 15km or 20km out.

I am constantly amazed when interstate buyers and the FIFO buyers’ agents target fringe suburbs in highly inferior locations, expecting a similar result to a Sydney or Melbourne.

To highlight this point, REA produce a great graphic comparing the level of demand for a Suburb vs. the Average for QLD.

I have chosen two suburbs in Brisbane, being Camp Hill (approx. 5km from the CBD) and Mansfield (approx. 10km from the CBD).

The levels of demand currently in these locations are quite extraordinary and close to three times the average for QLD.

Here is what I am seeing and expecting to happen in these superior locations…

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (12)

It is a vastly different story when you start moving further out where I selected three suburbs that I know our competitors are quite fond of, Zillmere (15km), Redcliffe (25km) and Pimpama (50km).

These suburbs are well below the averages and do not meet all the strict investment criteria we look for in investment grade suburbs.

These are the suburbs at risk moving forward as job security is inferior and people are living week to week.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (2)

The Current Market

The latest numbers from Corelogic show our capital cities remaining relatively unchanged, specifically over the last quarter to 19th June 2020.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (3)

If anything, Brisbane has held up slightly better than Sydney and Melbourne, likely due to more modest growth over the last 12 months.

I would suggest that this would be easy to explain in the sense that yes there are less buyers in the market due to COVID-19, but there is also less sellers.

Stock levels are well down on this time over the last 4 years.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (4)

It appears buyer and seller numbers may have effectively cancelled each other out and there remains a form of equilibrium as we round out the financial year.

Another very interesting set of numbers recently, has been a change in the number of searches online for property.

Sure, with more people at home scrolling through real estate you could expect that, but almost a 45% increase on the same time last year represents a clear trend – upward!

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (5)

This trend is also playing out on ground level with many local agents reporting much stronger numbers through open homes here in Brisbane.

I know we have also missed out on the odd property due to the odd home buyer willing to pay that little bit over where we see value.

So, there is still buyer emotion in the market and no sign of a bargain as many had predicted.

Another strong set of numbers in recent weeks have been the rise in Auction clearance rates for Brisbane.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (6)

These numbers are published by Domain each week and usually hover consistently between 20% – 40% on an average weekend in Brisbane.

They are now up around 50% – 60% plus and well above this time last year in a pre COVID-19 market.

More Headwinds

There is no doubt that there are several strong headwinds still in our faces, particularly once we hit September.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (7)

It may see the end of the Job Keeper and Job Seeker payments and more people will very likely face the unemployment line.

Unemployment is tipped to hit more than 10% over the next few months.

We also face a great deal less immigration and overseas visitors during this time.

Many are also predicting the end of the honeymoon from banks for mortgage and investment loan payments may also create serious issues.

And the list could go on and on…

I have no doubt there will be impacts on the overall property market, but here is why I am optimistic about…

Investment Grade Locations in Brisbane

Starting on a Macro Level, with the Federal and State Government incentives.

The current Job Seeker / Keeper payments are support mechanisms, the stimulus is starting to arrive and in almost all previous downturns housing is a target.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (8)

From First Home Buyer Grants, to Construction incentives and even talks about abolishing stamp duty has been on the cards.

Whatever may happen moving forward, all forms of Government will make this a priority as they always have.

In the next few months there is no doubt that the unemployment rate will rise and so too will mortgage stress.

It will happen in all suburbs, but significantly less in these superior locations, close to employment hubs where the types of jobs have been less effected.

In superior suburbs there tends to be dramatically less unemployment and less mortgage stress, on the other hand as you may further away from major employment hubs, unemployment and mortgage stress rises.

Now you can see that even if Demand dropped in suburbs like Camp Hill and Mansfield by up to 30% or 40% there is enough to keep demand quite high, while the other suburbs may have some serious issues.

Jobs to the Rescue

I have written previously about the current transformation of Brisbane, with more than 50,000 jobs expected between the CBD and Airport.

This will be the saviour for Brisbane over the medium term.

I often here that an outer suburb has a new rail line, or university or hospital that will create a few hundred jobs.

This is barely a drop in the ocean compared to the next few years in Brisbane.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (9)

In Conclusion

With less buyers and less sellers in the market currently, property prices have remained stagnant.

However there are some serious headwinds on the horizon in the form of unemployment and other challenges for buisnesses and employees as the mortgage free period comes to an end around the same time

I have no doubt that that there will be some serious issues for certain types of property in the wrong location.

The dramatic forecasts may well yet prove correct, but I remain very opimistic about the Brisbane market over this period.

In superior locations, more people are lucky enough to have not been efffected as much by the current financial environment and will likely get through the next hurdle relatively unscathed.

They are predminanlty home buyers – driven by cheap interest rates and combined with solid employment grounding are taking a longer term approach.

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (10)

They have the ability to buy in superior locations close to work and ammenities as demand continues to remain high.

For others looking for employment, there is a jobs boom starting to ramp up across the Brisbane CBD and out to the Airport.

So demand for housing will continue to remain high within that 10km ring.

If you are looking to invest and are looking for direction, certainty and a level of perspective around the Brisbane market, get in contact today.

Now is the time to take action and set yourself for the opportunities that will present themselves as the market moves on

Brisbane Property Prices to Defy the Critics and Strengthen in 2020 (11)

If you’re wondering what will happen to property in 2020–2021 you are not alone.

You can trust the team at Metropole to provide you with directionguidance and results.

In challenging times like we are currently experiencing you need an advisor who takes a holistic approach to your wealth creation and that’s what you exactly what you get from the multi award winning team at Metropole.

If you’re looking at buying your next home or investment property here’s 4 ways we can help you:

  1. Strategic property advice. – Allow us to build a Strategic Property Plan for you and your family.  Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now!
  2. Buyer’s agency – As Australia’s most trusted buyers’ agents we’ve been involved in over $3Billion worth of transactions creating wealth for our clients and we can do the same for you. Our on the ground teams in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane bring you years of experience and perspective – that’s something money just can’t buy. We’ll help you find your next home or an investment grade property.
  3. Wealth Advisory – We can provide you with strategic tailored financial planning and wealth advice.

Property Management – Our stress free property management services help you maximise your property returns.

 

 

 

 

This article is republished from propertyupdate.com.au under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Brisbane

Covid-19 Creates Unique Opportunities for Buyers

Covid-19 Creates Unique Opportunities for Buyers

The top suburbs tipped for future performance in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne have been revealed—with the coronavirus shifting the landscape for both rental and sales markets, new research shows.

According to PRD’s latest affordable and liveable property guide Covid-19 made its mark on rental markets in particular over the first half of 2020.

The pandemic also led to market cooling in some capital cities and there was a reduced percentage of homes available in the lowest price range bracket below $500,000.

The exception to this was Brisbane, where homes under this price were more readily available, and Hobart, where properties under $350,000 could be found.

PRD researchers looked at property trends, investment potential, affordability, project development and liveability factors to generate the list.

Top suburbs to buy homes

House locationMedian Price (,000)Rental YieldUnit locationMedian Price (,000)Rental Yield
BRISBANE
Griffin$4654.3%Geebung$3925.7%
Everton Park$6153.7%Arana Hills$3955.6%
Virginia$6253.9%Daisy Hill$4116.7%
SYDNEY
Miranda$1,1603.2%Rockdale$6113.8%
Rockdale$1,1002.5%Bexley$6103.6%
Tempe$1,0933.0%Peakhurst$6594.0%
MELBOURNE
Greensborough$8032.9%Kingsville$4473.9%
Altona$8852.7%Moonee Ponds$4704.1%
Oakleigh South$9232.8%Brunswick East$5254.7%

PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo said this data captured Covid-19 conditions and how that affected the market, with Sydney suburbs ranking the highest.

“Sydney metro market has recovered from the significant price-drop in mid-2019,” Mardiasmo said.

“However, thanks to Covid-19, the median house price only increased by 1.3 per cent over the past 15 months, which creates unique opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

“Brisbane continues to be a haven for first home buyers, with 45 per cent available for under $500,000.

“In comparison, only 5 per cent of Melbourne is available under $500,000, and zero per cent of Sydney .

“Melbourne presents an opportune time for first home buyers, as there has been a -11.1 per cent softening in median house price over the past 15 months.

“Buyers with a budget of under $800,000 can now access 46.3 per cent of the market; 18 months ago buyers with the same budget could only access 23.1 per cent of the market.”

The market was also changing in Hobart, where only 37.5 per cent of homes were available for under $500,000 in the second half of 2019, and this dropped to 34.6 per cent in the first half of 2020.

 

 

 

This article is republished from theurbandeveloper.com under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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