With Melbourne and especially Sydney becoming increasingly less attractive to first-time investors due to skyrocketing property prices, Brisbane is shaping up as a viable alternative for those prepared to look north.
The Queensland capital has the dual appeal of comparatively low median property prices—of the capitals, only Adelaide’s and Hobart’s lower—combined with solid growth potential over the coming years.
Industry analyst BIS Shrapnel predicts Brisbane will be the only capital city market to experience any increase in house values in real terms (accounting for the rate of inflation) over the next three years, forecasting 13% growth in that period and 6% growth for its units.
So which inner Brisbane suburbs—those within about 15kms of the CBD—are the most affordable to buy into? And do they offer much in terms of growth potential for your investment?
We take a look at CoreLogic RP Data’s figures to find out.
The southern suburb of Rocklea, home to the Brisbane Markets, comes in with an enticing median house price of $353,030, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
It should be noted, however, that Rocklea, which is close to the Brisbane River and one of its major tributaries, Oxley Creek, is also one of Brisbane’s most flood-prone suburbs. Its median house price plummeted almost 24% in the 12 months following the city’s 2011 floods, according to data from realestate.com.au.
Nevertheless, it’s seen solid price recovery since, with a growth rate in median house prices of 10.8% in the 12 months to 31 May, based on CoreLogic RP Data.
Rocklea also has the highest gross house rental yield—the annual income earned through a property when rented out divided by its sale price or market value—of all the top 5 most affordable suburbs, at 5%.
Keperra in Brisbane’s north-west has a median house price of $439,015.
It’s about 10kms from the CBD but is serviced by its own train station on the Ferny Grove line, and also boasts a 27-hole championship golf course, shopping centre and several parks.
Keperra residential property is a blend of post-war weatherboard and public housing along with newer developments. It’s seen solid house value growth since 2012 and a median growth rate of 8.14% in the year to 31 May, based on CoreLogic RP Data.
Tingalpa is about 11kms due east of the Brisbane CBD and, like Keperra, has some older-style post-war weatherboard and chamferboard cottages along with newer estates. It’s also within an 8km radius of Moreton Bay.
Kianawah Park is contained within Tingalpa, as is Carmichael Park, a multi-sports field venue. There’s also a state school, supermarket and family-friendly hotel. Of the five suburbs, Tingalpa has the highest percentage of couples with children as part of its overall mix of household structures.
Tingalpa’s median house price is $478,686, although its 12-month median house growth rate to 31 May was the lowest of the five suburbs at 3.37%, again by CoreLogic RP Data figures. Nevertheless, since 2011 house prices have been on a slow but steady incline in this suburb.
One stop further south along the Beenleigh train line from Rocklea is Salisbury, with a median house price of $485,570. It’s home to Russ Hall Park (also known as Salisbury Recreation Reserve), a multi-function sports and recreational space, as well as a section of the Toohey Forest Conservation Park (see Nathan, below).
Salisbury contains a blend of traditional Queenslander homes, older post-war style residences and newer developments, many of which are freestanding and on decent-sized allotments.
Of the five suburbs, Salisbury has the lowest figure for the average number of days properties take to sell from listing based on CoreLogic RP Data figures – 33 days, compared with 71 in Rocklea, the highest.
Nathan is just one suburb over from Salisbury heading east, and is home to Toohey Forest Conservation Park, the foundation campus of Griffith University and the Queensland Sports and Athletics Centre.
Its median house price is $487,265, and of the five suburbs it’s furthest away from the Brisbane CBD.
With Toohey Forest taking up much of the suburb, Nathan is relatively sparsely populated. Only 10 properties sold there in the past 12 months looking at CoreLogic RP Data numbers, compared with 129 in Tingalpa, so sales figures are less reliable.
Affordable suburbs for units
CoreLogic RP Data lists Holland Park West, Gordon Park, Kedron, Tingalpa and Moorooka as the most affordable suburbs in inner Brisbane for units. Median unit prices range from around $347,000 to around $351,000.
Capital gains for units in these suburbs over the 12 months to 31 May ranged from 3.2% in Gordon Park to 12.5% in Tingalpa. And CoreLogic RP Data reports Brisbane shares with Darwin the equal-highest gross rental yield for apartments of all the capital cities.
Queensland University of Technology (QUT) property economist, Professor Chris Eves, has raised concerns the city’s inner-city apartment market could falter next year due to oversupply.
He notes the increase in newly built apartments in the Brisbane CBD, South Brisbane and West End in particular, but suggests established (i.e. not off-the-plan) units in middle and outer inner-fringe suburbs with good schools, transport and city access—which would certainly include Tingalpa and Moorooka at least—are at less risk of oversupply.
Gold Coast Housing Market Insights: August 2021
The Urban Developer’s latest Gold Coast housing market insights reveal that the continued population shift has lifted prices to their highest point in 30 years.
This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling the Gold Coast’s housing market.
Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.
Gold Coast median house and unit price values
^Source: Corelogic Hedonic Home Value Index – July
The city has been in high demand from sea-change buyers with elevated household savings, drawn to increased affordability in south-east Queensland compared to rival markets in Sydney and Melbourne.
The latest Corelogic home value index shows that Gold Coast dwelling prices have risen by 2 per cent on a rolling four-week basis.
Among the biggest risers for dwelling values in the past six months have been Burleigh Heads, Carrara and Labrador, where double-digit rises have been recorded.
Gold Coast house prices remained steady with 2.2 per cent growth during July, pushing it up 7.3 per cent for the recent quarter and 25.7 per cent for the year to date.
The current median value for dwellings is $695,000 which is $16,000 higher than just a month ago.
The median house price of $847,000 continues to attract interstate migrants from the larger markets of Sydney, where the median is now $1.25 million, and Melbourne at $945,000.
The current median unit price on the Gold Coast is $516,000, which is $60,000 more than recorded at the turn of the year.
Renewed apartment development activity is now focused on the future route of the light rail between Broadbeach and the border, particularly Burleigh and Palm Beach.
Gold Coast’s housing market: policy updates
Federal budget 2021: property hits and misses
The Federal government rolled out its latest budget in May, a single-year plan centring on aged care, childcare, infrastructure, investment tax breaks and more help for home buyers as it tapers off the record spending from last year’s budget.
The budget will use superannuation incentives to help younger Australians enter the property market and older Australians vacate the family home.
While there have been some significant aids to the property industry and construction sector, experts have also noted some missed opportunities.
Queensland budget announcement
The state government plans to establish a $1-billion housing investment fund according to its 2021-22 budget.
The fund is expected to generate $160 million in four years which will be used to “drive new supply to support current and future housing needs”.
A further $265 million would be spent delivering satellite hospitals to Bribie Island, Caboolture, Brisbane South, Pine Rivers, Gold Coast, Ipswich and Redlands.
Brisbane Olympics to push property market’s limits
Brisbane house prices will hit the $1-million median well before the 2032 Olympics with suburbs near venues tipped to move up to $3.9 million.
Property projections from PRD Research indicate the median price would reach $1.7 million by 2033 and would be “immensely” boosted on the Gold and Sunshine coasts.
Meanwhile, prices on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast hit $792,000, up 18.2 per cent on last year, and $825,000 up 23.1 per cent, respectively.
What the experts are saying about the Gold Coast’s housing market
Chief of Research
“What we have seen and what’s very evident for Queensland is the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast are very up there, and this data is really telling of who is active in the market.
“But 25 per cent of suburbs with higher property price growth than salaries is quite a strong milestone for Queensland.
“I think in the years leading up to the Olympics we’ll probably see even greater demand for properties there.”
Surfers Paradise Managing Director
“I have never seen anything like it in my 40 years in the industry, and it’s results like these that underpin just how strong the Gold Coast market is.
“Interstate buyers have long recognised how undervalued the Gold Coast market is, given that we are now the sixth-largest city in the country.
“Now we are beginning to see locals cotton on to how valuable the Coast is, which they had underestimated in the past, and they are well aware of the strong demand from interstate markets who see the Gold Coast as excellent value.
“Given the trajectory of the Gold Coast market, buyers are realising that it’s in their best interest to allow market forces to determine the value of their property which often greatly surpasses their expectations.”
Gold Coast Director
“Consumer sentiment and ‘FOMO’ has well and truly returned to the Gold Coast property market and is playing a big role in the market.
‘Off the back of that, there is some real tightness in the supply for people who want to live in house and land packages.
“If people are anxious about the level of activity, development and growth on the Gold Coast that has existed over the last couple of years, the reality is we actually have to find a way to grow smarter and pick up the pace of delivering product if we are to meet those long-standing population targets.
Mosaic Property Group
“While prices for properties have increased, we believe the pace of growth will slow towards the back end of this year and we expect the market to experience only minimal increases in early 2022 followed by a slowdown and flattening of the market thereafter.
“This will likely be followed by a potential second leg up once the pandemic is well and truly behind us, unlikely before 2023.”
Gold Coast housing market forecasts
ANZ similarly predicts at the national level Australian house prices will rise by a strong 17 per cent through 2021, before slowing to 6 per cent growth in 2022.
CommBank forecasts dwelling prices will rise 8 per cent in 2021 and 6 per cent in 2022, with house prices to rise 16 per cent in that time and unit prices by 9 per cent.
Westpac has revised its property price forecasts, tipping values to rise 15 per cent in 2021 before slowing to grow by per cent% next year.
NAB has also upgraded its forecasts for dwelling prices—now expected to grow around 19 per cent in 2021 and per cent% in 2022.
Gold Coast auction clearance rates
|Week||Clearance rate||Total Auctions|
|Week ending 4 July 2021||65.5%||91|
|Week ending 11 July 2021||69.4%||63|
|Week ending 18 July 2021||60.6%||67|
|Week ending 25 July 2021||70.0%||60|
^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates – July
For every 100 houses that went to auction on the Gold Coast during recent weeks, only three failed to find a buyer.
Some of the Coast’s biggest real estate agents are now struggling to keep up with the interest, with some agents reporting that 60 per cent of properties set for auction are selling before they are actually listed.
Figures from Corelogic show that Arundel, Coombabah and Gilston recorded growth of 10 per cent in the last three months, significantly outpacing well-heeled suburbs like Burleigh Heads, Hope Island and Palm Beach.
The top growth suburb for the quarter was Currumbin Valley, where the median house price climbed 11.9 per cent to reach almost $1.5 million.
Nine suburbs in total reached double-digit price growth in the three months to the end of June, with Coombabah rounding out the list of the ten top performers with a rise of 9.9 per cent.
Other suburbs to perform well included Merrimac (9.5 per cent), Reedy Creek (9.4 per cent) and Labrador (8.8 per cent).
New research by REA Group revealed units returned the biggest gains for investors in the following Coast suburbs: Surfers Paradise; Southport; Biggera Waters; Coombabah; Carrara; Mudgeeraba; and Nerang.
Gold Coast residential rental vacancy rate
|City||July 2021 vacancy rate||Monthly % change|
^Source: SQM Research – reference period July
Rental stock on market
|City||July 2021 vacancies||Vacancy net change|
^Source: SQM Research – reference period July
Gold Coast rent prices
|Type||Rent||Monthly % change||Annual % change|
^Source: SQM Research – reference period July
While owner-occupiers are seeking downsizing alternatives in coastal areas, investors are returning to the Gold Coast in the wake of historically low rental vacancy rates.
Brisbane’s vacancy rate dropped from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent from the previous quarter, comparatively the Gold Coast’s has loosened slightly from a static 0.6 per cent to 0.9 per cent.
Carrara posted the strongest annual growth in rental demand of 26.2 per cent, followed by Biggera Waters at 19.8 per cent.
Southport’s rental demand grew by a more modest 7.7 per cent, with the CBD suburb hard hit by Covid-19’s exodus of international students.
But the centrally located suburb still delivered a healthy investor cashflow of $596.18, with capital growth of 15.6 per cent.
REA economist Paul Ryan said unit investors achieving a rental yield above 5 per cent were “doing very well”.
“House prices have risen, and that is pushing down rental yields,” Ryan said.
“That doesn’t make houses a bad investment, they may just not be bringing in the same yields or cashflow.”
Ryan said growth in rental demand for units on the Gold Coast, often cheaper to rent [than houses], are low maintenance and well located, had been “outstanding”.
“And with Covid, we have seen a lot of people moving to a region, and then renting before buying,” Ryan said.
Queensland building approvals
|Dwelling||Approved||Monthly % change|
^Australian Bureau of Statistics – Most recent reference period June (suspension of trend series between May 2020 and July 2020 due to Covid-19)
A significant dip in housing approvals has added fuel to the already hot property market, despite a lockdown softening.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows the number of private-sector houses approved dropped 11.8 per cent in June, following the downward trajectory since the end of the Federal government’s HomeBuilder stimulus package.
Across both houses and units the number of dwellings approved fell 6.7 per cent, compared to a 7.6 per cent decrease in May.
Queensland and Western Australia experienced the biggest decline in both house and unit approvals.
In Western Australia overall dwellings approvals dropped by 30.5 per cent, followed by Queensland at 18.4 per cent and Tasmania at 14.9 per cent.
In the 2020-21 financial year total dwelling approvals nationally were 27.3 per cent higher than in 2019-20 financial year, driven by a 42.8 per cent surge in private sector house approvals.
Dwelling approvals increased more than 88 per cent in Western Australia over the financial year, while in Queensland it was up 36.7 per cent and Tasmania experienced a 33.9 per cent increase.
Queensland home loan lending indicators
|Region||First home buyer loan commitments||First home buyer ratio – dwellings||First home buyer ratio – housing|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – most recent reference period June
Owner-occupier home buyers propelled a surge in housing credit in June.
Housing credit lifted 0.7 per cent—the most in 11 years—to be up 5.3 per cent when compared to a year ago, the strongest annual pace in two years.
Owner-occupier housing credit jumped 0.9 per cent, the biggest gain in five years, to be up 7.2 per cent on a year ago—the strongest annual growth rate in two years.
Investor housing credit rose by 0.3 per cent to be 2.0 per cent higher on a year ago, which is the strongest annual rate in three years.
“Deteriorating affordability is likely to weigh on owner-occupier demand, and a tightening in macro–prudential policy settings will restrain the supply of credit,” Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.
“We expect housing credit growth to exceed 7 per cent by the first half of 2022, triggering a likely policy intervention. The precise response will depend on the composition of lending over the next year.”
Most economists now expect the RBA to begin raising rates over 2023 and 2024 to a natural rate of about 1.25 per cent.
Queensland interstate migration
|Region||March (quarter) 2021 arrivals||March (quarter) 2021 departures||December (quarter) 2020 net|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – March quarter 2021
With a population of roughly 3.7 million, Queensland’s south-east is Australia’s fastest-growing zone.
The Gold Coast and south-east Queensland were direct beneficiaries of Victoria’s extended lockdown last year, with a dramatic population shift north.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data for June revealed Victoria’s population fell by 12,700 while the number of interstate migration to Queensland increased by 30,000, or 2 per cent.
Before the pandemic, Gold Coast city planners were working to a framework that the population would reach a million by 2041, delivering 6000 dwellings for approximately 15,000 new arrivals per annum.
Queensland’s population is now expected to surge by more than a quarter of a million people in the next four years, according to forecasts in the federal budget, as people continue to flood in from other states.
Additional forecasts suggest it will top 5 million by the middle of the next decade.
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
The Gold Coast suburbs where property is tipped to boom next
Meteoric house price hikes across key Gold Coast suburbs have sent the city hurtling towards a golden property era, and while it’s now almost impossible to nab a home for under a million dollars in most beachside spots, experts have named the next pockets tipped to boom.
Property experts have revealed Tugun, Mermaid Waters, Robina and Carrara are four of the top spots to spend your property dollars, after nearby suburbs Miami, Burleigh Heads, Tallebudgera and Bundall all posted jaw-dropping price growth of up to 38 per cent in a year, according to the June Domain House Price Report.
Houses in Miami climbed to $1,066,250 after the suburb experienced 38.5 per cent annual growth, while in Bundall, house prices shot up by 32.5 over the same period to $1,377,500.
Tallebudgera and Burleigh Heads each posted house price rises of just over 30 per cent to reach $1.2 million and $1.116 million while Mermaid Beach climbed close to the $2 million mark, rising by 17.9 per cent to $1.91 million.
Meanwhile, in Tugun, house prices rose almost 25 per cent to $880,000 – and by 5.7 per cent in Robina to $713,500.
In Mermaid Waters, house prices jumped 28.7 per cent to $1.063 million and, in Carrara, by 16.6 per cent to $642,000 – leaving plenty of room for gargantuan growth as stock levels remain tight and southern eyes increasingly look north to the sun-drenched city.
“From Mermaid (Beach) down to Palm Beach, Miami and Burleigh then inland to Tallebudgera we’ve seen extremely strong growth … those suburbs have really accelerated … and now you’re struggling to find anything under a million,” PRD Burleigh Heads director Adam Van Leeuwen said.
“We’re seeing record growth month on month … but I also think we have an extended period of growth coming towards our market.
“You’ll see the light rail come down to Burleigh in the next couple of years and lots of southern investors are looking to invest near that so I believe the best performing areas in the next 12 months will be Mermaid Beach – that will have a big kick this year due to some high prices coming through and the lack of supply – and then Tugun is going to see a lot of growth as it’s the most affordable suburb close to the beach and there’s a lot of infrastructure heading towards it.
“For buyers looking for homes under a million dollars, Tugun is going to be the spot … and there’s a lot of restaurants and cafes there now.”
Mr Leeuwan said with up to 50 groups flocking physically or virtually to most open homes amid record-low stock levels, snapping up a prime patch was a tough task.
“Buyers now know they have to see a property on the day and make a decision on the day or they miss out … and we’re increasingly selling to Sydney and Melbourne buyers – the numbers are much stronger than before and they are happy to buy virtually,” he said.
Ray White Surfers Paradise Group chief executive Andrew Bell said the city had previously been dubbed a boom-or-bust town for holidaymakers but with the stars aligned for a decade of significant growth it’s now seen as one of the nation’s most liveable cities.
“The Commonwealth Games created an injection of about $16 billion worth of infrastructure … and then we also saw private enterprise and the upgrades to shopping centres, and that sparks confidence … but COVID has driven more people to the region looking for an alternative,” Mr Bell said.
“Every time there’s been a lockdown down south there’s been a significant upswing here … and it’s across the board.”
But while key suburbs such as Palm Beach, Main Beach and Miami have borne the brunt of that upswing, Mr Bell said, demand was flowing out to surrounding suburbs and simultaneously offering a glimpse into the hot spots set to boom.
“In the apartment market the ‘kick-on’ will be in Broadbeach and Surfers Paradise … and then we’ll see good growth in Tugun and Currumbin,” he said.
“In housing, we’re seeing suburbs like Mermaid Waters and Sorrento … being identified as up-and-coming areas that are more affordable. Ashmore is still affordable as well, and you’ve got Helensvale and Carrara, and you can still get some good value at Robina.
“I always put down Southport there as well as there are some beautiful areas, and some of those older cottages are affordable.”
Despite a year of strong growth, Harcourts Coastal agent Christine Tucker said, her pick for the Gold Coast’s next hot spot was Mermaid Waters, with the pocket perfectly positioned to skyrocket in the years ahead.
“The best-performing suburbs are anywhere close to the beach … and Mermaid Waters has done really well. It’s just such a central location and it’s still close to the beach but you’ve got Bond University and you’ve got Pacific Fair close by,” Ms Tucker said.
She said she also expected the apartment market to further strengthen off the back of soaring house prices, with central hubs along the coastline tipped to cash in soon on that once-struggling sector.
Looking for that elusive bargain on the Gold Coast? Here are our top three picks – but you’ll need to be quick.
124/136 Palm Meadows Drive, Carrara
Offers over $670,000
Perched a short drive from the heart of the Gold Coast, this immaculate three-bedroom home boasts a study, two bathrooms and a galley-style kitchen. It’s in a suburb that’s been tipped for major price growth.
20 Dilgara Street, Tugun
Offers over $949,000
Walk to the golden dunes of Tugun in just a few minutes from this four-bedroom family home on a 506-square-metre block. It features an outdoor undercover entertainment area and two bathrooms.
112 Thorngate Drive, Robina
Offers over $849,000
Sitting on a whopping 784-square-metre block, this three-bedroom, two-bathroom house is located in an up-and-coming hot spot and has a pool to boot. It’s currently rented out for $850 per week.
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
Brisbane’s best property buys: Six must-see homes under $700,000
Here’s our pick of some of the best property buys in Brisbane right now.
3/888 Wynnum Road, Cannon Hill
Eight is one of the luckiest numbers in many cultures, promising owners of this inner east home fortuitous times ahead. The two-bedroom, two-bathroom, 147-square-metre apartment certainly has a well-positioned tiled ground-level courtyard, ready to host soirees under the Brisbane sun or starlight. It is a massive 7.8 metres by 6.9 metres and faces the lush green ovals of Bill Cash Memorial Park.
LJ Hooker, Ashleigh Hansom 0448 742 538
2404/179 Alfred Street, Fortitude Valley
Bridge-spotters get an eagle’s nest view of one of Queensland’s most iconic at this sky home. The two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment comes with 78 square metres of title and uninterrupted views of the Story Bridge and inner-cityscape. It claims a lofty level 24 vantage point and its edgy designer tower has a suite of you-beaut perks for residents, including a pool, timber sun platforms, a state-of-the-art gym, cinema room and lounge area.
Ray White, Kai Liu 0430 568 851
42 Bulgin Avenue, Wynnum West
Multigenerational living is catered for at this three-bedroom high-set house, on the market for the first time since the mid-1970s. Upstairs the floor plan maps out three bedrooms, a living, dining, a sunny front porch, and a shady rear terrace to take in the green landscape of the back yard. Downstairs, buyers get a second kitchen, another toilet and a miscellaneous room that could function as a study, another bedroom or studio.
Raine & Horne, Chris Vote 0433 411 540
5/370 Zillmere Road, Zillmere
Sports nuts hunting a first home or rental asset will find good form at this two-bedroom pad in its neat three-storey brick walk-up. The apartment is a punt kick from O’Callaghan Park and the suburban police-citizens youth centre. It has a garage and has been freshened up with new carpets, lights and paint. The local primary school is about 600 metres away.
Ray White, Tiffany Fraser 0451 348 787
5/48 Hood Street, Sherwood
This quirky one-bedroom rear apartment in the city’s leafy west riverside belt presents buyers with 71-square-metres including a covered timber deck with a private garden outlook. There is scope to modernise the interior, although the exposed brick walls and wood-grain kitchen cabinets are charming in their own retro-rustic way. The local primary school is diagonally a block away.
Williams Real Estate, Nick Williams 0419 379 771
9/14 Military Close, Annerley
At face value, this is a screaming good deal for three levels of home less than six kilometres from the CBD. The suburb’s median sale price for a three-bedroom house is $783,000, based on 48 sales in the past 12 months. House-like in size, this 168-square-metre townhouse has access to the estate’s infinity pool and residents’ entertainment deck. Junction Park State School is about 200 metres away to the north-west.
Place, Nick Bekker 0421 461 520
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
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