The latest Corelogic Data shows overall dwelling values in Brisbane declined -0.1 per cent, but houses were stable and the decline came from the unit sector, down -0.3 per cent. Since January, Brisbane house values have reported an increase of 1.6 per cent, despite the pandemic, and yet unit values have slipped -1.8 per cent.
This stability has been seen in Brisbane, despite very early predictions from many of price falls across all Australian markets. The price changes in Melbourne have been more pronounced, with -4 per cent coming off the value of houses and -2.2 per cent off units over the last three months. On this basis, it seems that the performance of the housing market is intrinsically linked to the number of coronavirus cases in a particular region and the subsequent policies in place around social distancing. Stage 4 shutdowns seem to have had a big impact in Melbourne.
That said, in Brisbane, despite small cluster outbreaks from time to time, our strict border control measures appear to be keeping the virus under control. Most of us are able to return to the labour market, sentiment is fairly strong and we seem to be able to move around with a certain degree of freedom. This is all very positive for our local property market as well.
According to SQM Research, listing volumes are still 9.7 per cent lower in Brisbane than they were 12 months ago, and in the last month alone (between July and August 2020) listing volumes were down a further 5.1 per cent so we expect transactions volumes will remain low for some time yet, simply due to limited supply.
New research from realestate.com.au has revealed that Queensland property seekers are the most confident buyers in Australia. In Brisbane the suburbs with the highest views per listing according to realestate.com were as follows:
• Ashgrove Qld 4060
• Kalinga Qld 4030
• Qld 4155
• Holland Park Qld 4121
• Tarragindi Qld 4121
• Stafford Heights Qld 4053
We can confirm from being on the ground that these areas have strong demand from buyers with many properties going to multiple offer very soon after being listed. These are some of the areas that are outperforming, with upward pressure on prices. The high number of buyers, combined with limited listings, tends to have this effect.
The rental market in Brisbane remains resilient also at this time. We are seeing the vacancy rate at a city level continuing its downward trajectory, after an initial spike from March to April 2020.
Since then, rental markets have tightened, with many markets across Greater Brisbane experiencing the tightest vacancy for many years. We are also seeing multiple applications from prospective tenants being submitted on properties for rent, illustrating the shortage of quality rental properties available.
There remain some “at risk” locations in certain pockets of Brisbane. For example, postcode 4000 (which includes the Brisbane CBD) has a local vacancy rate of 13 per cent, which is extremely high-risk for an investor who may be looking at buying into that market.
While there is no evidence of distressed properties coming to the market in Brisbane, there continues to be talk about the economic cliff that is apparently ahead of us. Once JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments ease, and mortgage repayment deferrals stop, perhaps some people may need to sell as they are no longer able to hold their property. We remain of the opinion that different markets around Australia will be impacted in different ways.
According to a recent NAB announcement, Australian Home Loan deferrals are broadly in line with the total portfolio spread. This means the exposure of some states to potential “forced selling” is much less than other states around the country.
Queensland makes up approximately 17 per cent of the total number of NAB Home Loan facilities and 16 per cent of the total Home Loans that have been deferred across Australia. Compare that with NSW/ACT, which makes up 38 per cent of the total portfolio but 40 per cent of the total deferrals, and Vic/Tas, which makes up 31 per cent of the total portfolio and 32 per cent of the total deferrals. Then there is WA and SA/NT with much lower exposure again.
This provides a greater level of confidence for property owners and property buyers in Brisbane, given our exposure is a lot less than other locations around Australia.
Shane Oliver, AMP chief economist, also updated his forecasts recently for Australians’ property market. His thoughts are that Sydney and Melbourne are more exposed to price falls given their higher dependence on international migration, higher debt-to-income ratios, higher price-to-income ratios and greater investor penetration.
Over recent years, Brisbane’s growth has been underwhelming compared with Sydney and Melbourne, for example. While the other capitals experienced amazing capital appreciation, Brisbane property values remained quite flat. This is because local drivers of supply and demand vary considerably between different locations. Different property markets behave in different ways during various market conditions, so there is no reason to expect the outcomes to differ considerably throughout this pandemic.
Brisbane properties are more affordable and our income-to-debt ratio is a lot lower. The amount of our take-home income that we spend on our mortgages here in Brisbane is also a lot lower. Property markets around the country are all responding differently as a result of the pandemic, and at this stage we remain optimistic about the performance of Brisbane in the months ahead.
Brisbane and QLD property market update – December 2020
If there is a defining theme for the Brisbane market over 2020 it has been it’s resilience in the face of a pandemic which has put a halt to interstate and international tourist arrivals for much of the year.
This has not stopped housing values in the city reaching new record highs, with property analysts agreeing that the city, as well as parts of south east Queensland, are on a trajectory of strong growth into 2021. This is against a backdrop of rising values across the major capitals, as the national home value index rose +1.0 per cent in December; the third consecutive month where dwelling values have grown.
Nationally the residential real estate market has proved remarkably resilient, despite a wobble between March and September when COVID protocols interrupted the market – but overall property prices have held steady.
This is largely due to three factors, including the relative success Australia has had controlling the virus, record low interest rates and the government stimulus that has supported businesses and individuals throughout much of the pandemic.
Now let’s take a look at the Brisbane market and how it has performed over December.
Brisbane dwellings continued their steady, determined progress advancing +1.1 per cent over December, for a median price of $521,686. This brings the Queensland capital up +2.1 per cent for the quarter and +3.6 per cent for the year. This places it in the middle of the pack for the major capitals, a position – characterised by a steady and less volatile growth trajectory.
CoreLogic data reports that houses continue to outperform units across the city, advancing +2.1 per cent over December. Property investor and commentator Michael Yardney identifies Queenslanders’ preference for houses over units as the main reasons for this trend.
CoreLogic data reports that houses continue to outperform units across the city, advancing +2.1 per cent over December
If you are looking for suburb specific highlights CoreLogic’s Best of the Best Report 2020 identified Teneriffe (inner city Brisbane) as the Queensland suburb with the highest median house value of $1,859,323.
Michael Yardney points out that, “…in recent months houses in Brisbane have enjoyed improved demand and the number of transactions in the Brisbane housing market are higher than they were pre-Coronavirus.”
He goes on to clarify that property markets within any city are inherently fragmented, and his data shows that, “…freestanding Brisbane houses within 5-7 km of the CBD or in good school catchment zones have grown in value strongly.”
CoreLogic data appears to confirm this, with dwellings in the upper quartile up +1.25 per cent over December. Yardney cautions against investing in certain segments of the Brisbane market which have underperformed, including high-rise apartments, new and off the plan apartments and new housing estates in blue-collar areas.
Like many other regional markets, high demand for property in specific Queensland hotspots like the Sunshine Coast has driven the market up +6.9 per cent over 2020. Contrast this with Brisbane metro’s growth of +3.6 per cent over the same timeframe for some perspective.
Houses dominate sales in most regional markets, and they are posting solid growth here, up +1.5 per cent over December, while units grew a respectable +1.0 per cent over the month.
Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast recorded the highest growth for houses up +27.6 per cent over the year. For units, Noosa Heads has the highest median values at $898,838, while Currumbin on the Gold Coast posted the highest growth over the year advancing +24.0 per cent.
According to property forecasters Hotspotting other regional postcodes showing promise for the 2021, include Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Townsville – with a recovery in resources behind some of these locations. Toowoomba is also showing promise as new infrastructure projects stimulate the local economy.
Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast recorded the highest growth for houses up +27.6 per cent over the year
Queensland rental market update
Overall Brisbane house rentals have held steady, with a drop in asking rents mainly impacting the inner-city apartment market. According to the SQM, Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is currently around 4.0 per cent and for units is around 5.2 per cent.
CoreLogic data indicates that West Gladstone is the Queensland postcode with the biggest change in rents over the year, up +17.4 per cent; while Mackay/Isaac/Whitsundays has the best rental yield of +14.6 per cent.
CoreLogic data indicates that West Gladstone is the Queensland postcode with the biggest change in rents over the year, up +17.4 per cent
The holiday rental market in many regional locations has been impacted by the COVID flight from cities, with rental vacancy rates in some coastal locations close to zero. CoreLogic data shows that the Gold Coast had a vacancy rate of 1.9 per cent in December ‘19, which dropped to 0.2 per cent in December ‘20. It is a similar story on the Sunshine Coast (1.9 per cent vs 0.1 per cent) and Noosa (1.8 per cent vs 0.2 per cent) over the same timeframe.
The outlook for 2021
Overall the medium/long term outlook is positive for Brisbane, with Westpac forecasting that property values could increase +20 per cent in 2022-23.
Realestate.com.au Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee believes that if low interest rates, government incentives for buyers and the Australian economy continues to reopen, ‘prospects for home sellers in 2021 are positive.’
Michael Yardney believes that property markets will perform strongly in 2021 and 2022 based on the removal of overly restrictive lending rules, the job-friendly Federal budget, and the prospect of no interest rate rises for at least 3 years.
CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless sounds a word of caution, warning that any fresh COVID outbreaks, ‘…would set back the economic recovery and have a negative, although temporary impact on housing markets.’
Article Source: www.openagent.com.au
New apartment developments pop up in prime locations in Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast
Located in the new CBD in Maroochydore, this Sunshine Coast development will offer 146 apartments in two towers.
Buyers will have the choice of two and three-bedroom configurations, along with a limited selection of penthouses, each offering sought-after views of the coastline and picturesque hinterland.
The development also encompasses six small office terraces, as well as retail and dining.
Embedded within the brand new City Centre precinct, the project is set to enjoy all the perks and amenity of the budding development hub, affording it a 90/100 walk score.
It is situated directly opposite the new town square and a two-hectare park, part of a sizeable chunk of the CBD site earmarked for open space.
Designed with investors and developers in mind, the mixed-use precinct will feature smart technology throughout, including technology-assisted parking, real-time public transport and community updates, wifi hotspots, safety systems and electric car charging stations.
Some 40 per cent of the 53-hectare site will be kept as open space, and waterways will be integrated throughout.
Market Lane itself will offer 450 square metres of ground floor retail and dining, along with a rooftop terrace on one of the towers, replete with an entertaining area and private dining room.
Other amenities available to residents will include a 25-metre resort-style pool and barbecue leisure space in the centre of the development.
The towers will also feature secure access, lifts, an above-ground car park, CCTV, and an on-site facilities manager.
Article Source: www.domain.com.au
First home buyers flood back into market on low rates, rising house prices
First home buyers are flooding back into the property market lured by ultra-low interest rates and government support, with two of the nation’s biggest mortgage brokers experiencing a surge in loan applications from young buyers.
AFG, a major listed wholesale broker, reported a 30 per cent annual jump in its total home loan applications in the latest quarter, as other brokers including Mortgage Choice also said they had seen sharp growth during the summer.
But while the lending surge is underway, analysts are predicting a modest rise in foreclosures as banks stop offering automatic home loan deferrals for customers thrown into financial stress by the pandemic.
AFG chief executive David Bailey said the company’s latest figures showed 22 per cent of loan applications lodged by its brokers in the latest quarter were for first home buyers, compared with the historical average of about 12 to 13 per cent of loans going to first time buyers. Mr Bailey said government incentives for first home buyers and rising prices were helping to fuel the strong demand.
“As we are starting to see clearance rates improve and prices rise across the country, people are starting to worry that they might miss out. They are probably bringing their decisions forward … to take advantage of the incentives,” Mr Bailey said in an interview on Wednesday.
Investors made up only 21 per cent of AFG’s loan applications, the lowest percentage on records going back to 2013.
Australia’s property market proved to be surprisingly resilient to shock from the pandemic, with prices rising in late 2020 after official interest rates were slashed to just 0.25 per cent and banks allowed struggling property owners to put their repayments on pause.
Mortgage Choice chief executive Susan Mitchell said over the past two months the market had been “very buoyant,” with loan applications up by 25 to 30 per cent compared with a year earlier. Ms Mitchell also noted the surge in first home buyer activity, saying these buyers accounted for almost 25 per cent of applications, up from 13 to 15 per cent normally.
“We are seeing the first home buyers back at the same level that we saw back in 2009,” she said.
Mortgage broker Homeloanexperts.com.au said inquiries since December were more than 60 per cent higher than the same period last year, also citing strong interest from first home buyers and expats returning to Australia.
Alongside government support for first home buyers, banks have also cushioned the housing market by allowing customers to pause repayments temporarily, but most borrowers will have to make their usual payments from March, when several government stimulus programs also end.
The end of all these stimulus measures and supports simultaneously could result in a small lift in foreclosures, property data analysts SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said, but he was not concerned about a “mass forced sale event”.
“The banks have done well in managing the loan deferrals. They have shrunk from their peaks at the beginning of the pandemic,” Mr Christopher said.
“The leniency and the patience of the banks is stopping there from being any tsunami of forced sales. There will naturally be a slight increase in foreclosures [at the end of the repayment holidays] but not a severe spike,” Mr Driscoll said. “Everything last year was pointing to foreclosures and price falls but it’s just business as usual.”
Article Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au
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