The latest Corelogic Data shows overall dwelling values in Brisbane declined -0.1 per cent, but houses were stable and the decline came from the unit sector, down -0.3 per cent. Since January, Brisbane house values have reported an increase of 1.6 per cent, despite the pandemic, and yet unit values have slipped -1.8 per cent.
This stability has been seen in Brisbane, despite very early predictions from many of price falls across all Australian markets. The price changes in Melbourne have been more pronounced, with -4 per cent coming off the value of houses and -2.2 per cent off units over the last three months. On this basis, it seems that the performance of the housing market is intrinsically linked to the number of coronavirus cases in a particular region and the subsequent policies in place around social distancing. Stage 4 shutdowns seem to have had a big impact in Melbourne.
That said, in Brisbane, despite small cluster outbreaks from time to time, our strict border control measures appear to be keeping the virus under control. Most of us are able to return to the labour market, sentiment is fairly strong and we seem to be able to move around with a certain degree of freedom. This is all very positive for our local property market as well.
According to SQM Research, listing volumes are still 9.7 per cent lower in Brisbane than they were 12 months ago, and in the last month alone (between July and August 2020) listing volumes were down a further 5.1 per cent so we expect transactions volumes will remain low for some time yet, simply due to limited supply.
New research from realestate.com.au has revealed that Queensland property seekers are the most confident buyers in Australia. In Brisbane the suburbs with the highest views per listing according to realestate.com were as follows:
• Ashgrove Qld 4060
• Kalinga Qld 4030
• Qld 4155
• Holland Park Qld 4121
• Tarragindi Qld 4121
• Stafford Heights Qld 4053
We can confirm from being on the ground that these areas have strong demand from buyers with many properties going to multiple offer very soon after being listed. These are some of the areas that are outperforming, with upward pressure on prices. The high number of buyers, combined with limited listings, tends to have this effect.
The rental market in Brisbane remains resilient also at this time. We are seeing the vacancy rate at a city level continuing its downward trajectory, after an initial spike from March to April 2020.
Since then, rental markets have tightened, with many markets across Greater Brisbane experiencing the tightest vacancy for many years. We are also seeing multiple applications from prospective tenants being submitted on properties for rent, illustrating the shortage of quality rental properties available.
There remain some “at risk” locations in certain pockets of Brisbane. For example, postcode 4000 (which includes the Brisbane CBD) has a local vacancy rate of 13 per cent, which is extremely high-risk for an investor who may be looking at buying into that market.
While there is no evidence of distressed properties coming to the market in Brisbane, there continues to be talk about the economic cliff that is apparently ahead of us. Once JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments ease, and mortgage repayment deferrals stop, perhaps some people may need to sell as they are no longer able to hold their property. We remain of the opinion that different markets around Australia will be impacted in different ways.
According to a recent NAB announcement, Australian Home Loan deferrals are broadly in line with the total portfolio spread. This means the exposure of some states to potential “forced selling” is much less than other states around the country.
Queensland makes up approximately 17 per cent of the total number of NAB Home Loan facilities and 16 per cent of the total Home Loans that have been deferred across Australia. Compare that with NSW/ACT, which makes up 38 per cent of the total portfolio but 40 per cent of the total deferrals, and Vic/Tas, which makes up 31 per cent of the total portfolio and 32 per cent of the total deferrals. Then there is WA and SA/NT with much lower exposure again.
This provides a greater level of confidence for property owners and property buyers in Brisbane, given our exposure is a lot less than other locations around Australia.
Shane Oliver, AMP chief economist, also updated his forecasts recently for Australians’ property market. His thoughts are that Sydney and Melbourne are more exposed to price falls given their higher dependence on international migration, higher debt-to-income ratios, higher price-to-income ratios and greater investor penetration.
Over recent years, Brisbane’s growth has been underwhelming compared with Sydney and Melbourne, for example. While the other capitals experienced amazing capital appreciation, Brisbane property values remained quite flat. This is because local drivers of supply and demand vary considerably between different locations. Different property markets behave in different ways during various market conditions, so there is no reason to expect the outcomes to differ considerably throughout this pandemic.
Brisbane properties are more affordable and our income-to-debt ratio is a lot lower. The amount of our take-home income that we spend on our mortgages here in Brisbane is also a lot lower. Property markets around the country are all responding differently as a result of the pandemic, and at this stage we remain optimistic about the performance of Brisbane in the months ahead.
Bridge to 2032 – Brekky Ck span approved, missing link for Games athletes’ village
Brisbane is set to have another major infrastructure project underway by the end of the year after Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner lodged the final design of the Breakfast Creek green bridge with planning officers for approval.
The $67 million project is likely to provide a smoother connection for pedestrians and cyclists moving between the fast-growing riverside development at Northshore Hamilton and the CBD.
The 80-metre arch will cross Breakfast Creek to connect Newstead Park with the existing Lores Bonney riverwalk which was part of the now completed Kingsford Smith Drive upgrade.
“This is a crucial step towards securing the final approvals we need to commence work on the green bridge that will provide a $67 million investment in local industry, deliver a new active transport options and create 140 local construction jobs,” Schrinner said.
“The Lores Bonney Riverwalk is currently used 2300 times a day, and this new green bridge will improve safety and increase capacity to the riverwalk by creating a continues walking and cycling connection.”
He said the Breakfast Creek project would join the now-approved Kangaroo Point green bridge as fast-tracked investments to create jobs as the city headed out of the coronavirus pandemic.
The council has also linked the project to the 2032 Olympics, saying it will be a “key connector” for the planned Athletes Village at Hamilton and provide a critical transport link for the Games.
Two other cross-river pedestrian and cycle links connecting Toowong to West End and St Lucia to West End remain on the council’s green bridge program books but are yet to be funded.
The council insists the remaining bridges need federal and state government funding to go ahead.
Article Source: inqld.com.au
Green ‘Grand Central’: Cross River Rail unveils changes to parklands vision
Developers of Queensland’s biggest infrastructure project, the $5.4 billion Cross River Rail, appear to have bowed to public pressure and moved to preserve more public space in its redesign of the city’s Roma Street parklands precinct.
The Cross River Rail Delivery Authority has confirmed it will allow more public open space in a revised development plan for the area.
A new development scheme for the Roma St precinct, which will contain the state’s most most important transport interchange (dubbed Grand Central) as well as the proposed Brisbane Live arena, identifies new green areas and more affordable housing than was originally planned.
The Palaszczuk government has insisted that the development of an underground Roma St station as part of Cross River Rail is a chance to revitalise an under-used part of Brisbane into a major opportunity for private investment.
The government expects that over the next 15 years there will be nearly 4200 new residents and more than 19,700 new workers within the 32 hectare Roma Street priority development area, bounded roughly by Wickham Terrace, North Quay and College Rd.
However, the delivery authority came under fire for giving over part of the Roma St parklands which houses a public car park and Brisbane City Council maintenance depot to residential and commercial development.
The authority now says under the finalised development scheme the precinct would have more “publicly accessible open space”.
“The existing 11 hectares of publicly accessible open space within the Roma St Parklands will not only be protected forever, but will be expanded even further by more than two hectares,” the authority said in a statement.
“The development scheme also provides for new social and affordable housing as part of new residential buildings parallel to the rail corridor, adding to the existing apartment complexes along Parkland Boulevard.”
“This scheme is all about renewing one of Brisbane’s most underutilised inner-city locations while protecting and enhancing the beautiful natural features that already exist. ‘
About 46,000 people each weekday are expected to use the new high-capacity underground station at Roma Street by 2036.
Article Source: inqld.com.au
Brisbane Olympics to Push Property Market’s Limits
Brisbane house prices will hit the $1-million median well before the 2032 Olympics with suburbs near venues tipped to move up to $3.9 million.
Property projections from PRD Research indicate the median price would reach $1.7 million by 2033 and would be “immensely” boosted on the Gold and Sunshine coasts.
PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo said it was clear that hosting major events had served the property market well.
“The year after the 2000 Sydney Olympics, Newington (site of the athletes’ villages) and surrounding suburbs’ median house prices grew by 13.4 per cent,” Mardiasmo said.
“Median house price growth was not limited to the year after the Olympics. It grew by 38.5 per cent two years after, and 66.4 per cent three years after.
“The year after World Expo 88, South Bank and its surrounding suburbs grew by an average of 19.1 per cent and by 10.3 per cent after G20 Summit 2014.”
Brisbane property price predictions: Olympics 2032
|Suburb||2011||2021||Projected Growth G20 Average|
|South Brisbane house||$805,000||$1,210,000||$2,560,360|
|Redland Bay house||$450,000||$638,000||$1,350,008|
|Spring Hill house||$950,000||$1,150,000||$2,433,400|
|Alexandra Headland house||$570,000||$1,110,000||$3,348,760|
|Twin Waters house||$651,000||$1,077,000||$2,278,932|
^Source: PRD Research, AMP Pricefinder
“Bearing in mind the 2032 Olympics are still 11 years away, and based on how the Brisbane market is travelling, the potential to eclipse this price point is high,” Mardiasmo said.
“Regardless of the calculation method, the conclusion points us to Brisbane becoming a $1-million median house price city sooner rather than later. ”
Domain’s latest house price report showed median house price in Brisbane was $678,236, up 13 per cent annually.
Meanwhile, prices on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast hit $792,000, up 18.2 per cent on last year, and $825,000 up 23.1 per cent, respectively.
Domain chief of research Nicola Powell said at the moment, low listing numbers and interstate migration were driving the price hike.
“It suggests that upgrading homeowners are fuelling house prices, as well as interstate and expat buyers moving from more expensive cities,” Powell said.
Melbourne and Canberra officially joined Sydney in the $1-million home club in the July results.
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
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