October has seen a huge turnaround in buyer sentiment in Brisbane. It seems that even more buyers have entered the Brisbane property market in the last month, and this is contributing to the very high demand that is evident around the city.
Here we will summarise the monthly data and share our experiences of what we have seen on the ground by being out and about every Saturday, mixing with other buyers at open homes in several pockets around Brisbane.
Last month, we reported that Westpac Bank updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane property market prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023. Since then, consumer confidence has surged, returning to an eight-month high. It is well known that consumer confidence is a key driver for housing markets across Australia. With the announcement of further rates cuts, we may now see a further surge in housing market activity.
There has been a lot of talk about the mortgage payment deferrals that are expiring, and whether it will have an impact on property values in the coming months. We have now seen a decline from 11 per cent ($195 billion) in June to 7.4 per cent ($133 billion) in September 2020, according to APRA’s figures, a trend which is reassuring.
The unit sector in Brisbane property market has not performed as well as evidenced by the breakdown below.
The Domain Buyer Demand Indicator has shown that houses remain a firm favourite for prospective home hunters, with demand rising post-lockdown in Brisbane, and it remains significantly elevated compared with last year. Unit demand has been sliding since late May although it also remains slightly higher than last year, with investment grade stock likely to be impacted most.
At the moment, the Real Estate Brisbane property market is moving at different speeds. We have the housing market, and the high-end unit market (as a small segment of the unit market as a whole) that are incredibly strong, but the inner-city one- and two-bedroom standard apartment markets are suffering. It is unlikely that we will see a recovery until borders open and international students return.
Brisbane property market prices
According to the latest Hedonic Home Value Index data by Corelogic, dwelling values in Brisbane property market saw an overall median monthly price rise of a 0.5 per cent over the month of October 2020.
The data now confirms that property prices across Australia have moved into recovery mode with a broad-based lift in dwelling values, with the exception of Melbourne.
In the Brisbane Housing Market, we saw median values for the greater Brisbane region increase 0.6 per cent across the month of September 2020. The current median value for a Brisbane house is now $564,531. Combined with last month’s house price results for Brisbane, this is a 1 per cent increase across the last two months. On a $500,000 property, this means it will cost a buyer $5,000 more to buy, and on a $1,000,000 property it is now $10,000 more to buy in the same area than it was two months ago.
The Unit Market in Brisbane saw a decline in median values during October with a small slide of -0.1 per cent. The current median unit price in Brisbane according to Corelogic is now $389,583.
Brisbane rental market movements
The vacancy rate in Brisbane as a whole fell again from 2.1 per cent at the end of August to 2.0 per cent at the end of September. There are still many areas in Greater Brisbane where vacancy rates are extremely low. The table below highlights where vacancy rates across Brisbane sit at the end of September 2020.
The main changes over the last month in vacancy are a further tightening in the Beenleigh Corridor, East Brisbane, Inner Brisbane, Northern Brisbane and Southern Brisbane, a small increase in the Brisbane CBD and no change in the other regions. Again, the main area of risk seems to be the higher-density unit markets confined to the inner city and CBD areas as previously reported.
Rents in the unit market in Brisbane saw price falls -1.7 per cent from 31 March to 30 October, a consequence of too many investment apartments in a small geographical location around the city with a recent change in demand for these types of accommodation due to the impacts of COVID-19 as we reported last month.
See below the change in rents for Brisbane units and houses from 31 March to 30 October 2020.
What are we seeing on the ground across Brisbane?
The number of people out at open homes every Saturday has continued to grow throughout October. With listing volumes still lower than 12 months ago, there is fierce competition for quality properties throughout Brisbane.
Demand is very strong. I would argue the strongest that we have seen in more than a decade. There are many reasons for this.
The most recent Herron Todd White Residential Month in Review, it states:
“Money has never been cheaper, and for those with the ability to access it, the opportunity is obvious.”
An example of a recent auction in Brisbane was the property at 20 Sturt Street Kedron. This was vacant land in Kedron, which is 11km to the north of the Brisbane CBD. There were 39 registered bidders and the vacant 607 sq m block sold for $1,155,000.
From our own “on the ground” experience, we can say that there is not a single property that we have been able to buy that has been listed on the market, that has not been a multiple offer situation after the first open home. Every property we have considered for our client has had high competition.
We are now also seeing properties sell outside of our appraisal range based on previous comparable sales in the area. This shows how strong the current market is, with properties selling between 5 and 10 per cent over the highest end of our appraisal range. This is critical for buyers to understand, otherwise they will simply keep missing out.
There is still off-market activity, and this is generally less competitive. Obviously, this is one advantage of working with professional buyer’s agents who have an extensive agent network.
There is less fear in Brisbane now about property prices falling, so purchasers are eager to act. Interstate migration is also boosting sales, with property buyers looking to secure a home before relocating to Brisbane. There is a sense of anticipation building in Brisbane that we will see high volumes of interstate arrivals once the borders reopen for everyone. Given the changes that COVID-19 has had on all of us, many people are seeking a great lifestyle, which Brisbane provides, while having the ability to work more remotely.
The dominant buyer group is still the owner-occupier in Brisbane, although we have definitely seen investor activity start to rapidly pick up again. Lending has spiked and owner-occupier lending is now at historical highs, excluding refinancing. First home buyer numbers are up 70 per cent year-on-year in Queensland, according to the most recent ABS lending data. Investor lending also rose 5 per cent in September, but it remains low overall.
The months ahead …
The future for the Brisbane housing market looks very bright. We expect the current price growth to continue given the sheer number of buyers currently in the market ready to buy. With tight vacancy rates throughout most areas in Greater Brisbane, we also see great investment opportunities for those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the worst of the pandemic to pass.
The high-density unit market is still subject to further headwinds – especially in the inner city. With elevated vacancy rates, investors without a tenant in place will certainly feel the impact on their returns. Also with downward pressure on prices, the immediate future looks bleak.
Queensland now has a re-elected Labor government, so there is more certainty than this time last month when we were still in the lead-up to our state election. With the promise of jobs, and more jobs, let’s hope they get it right! With an improving economy, together with the creation of more jobs in the months ahead, this will have further positive effects on the Brisbane market.
The Gabba Games – State’s $1b plan to turn stadium into sporting Mecca for 2032
The Palaszczuk government will push ahead with a redevelopment of The Gabba as the centrepiece of its 2032 Olympic Games bid, but it still needs support and a whole lot of money.
The government has rejected lacklustre greenfield sites near Bowen Hills and instead gone across the river to Queensland’s major AFL and cricket venue at Woolloongabba. If the plan goes ahead, and Queensland secures the games, The Gabba will become a building site for five years while an Olympic-class stadium is built.
The Gabba is normally used around 40 weeks in every year. Taking it out of action will require negotiation with a neighbouring school, the Brisbane Lions and Queensland Bulls, along with the Queensland Cricketers’ Club, which has previously been a stumbling block to work on the stadium. It is yet to be seen whether losing a home ground, and maximum revenue for five years, is worth having a larger, modern venue to return to.
While the International Olympic Committee favours using existing venues, thereby reducing the cost to host cities, Palaszczuk is intent on asking the Commonwealth to help fund a complete rebuild. There is no funding agreement yet, let alone architectural plans, but Palaszczuk suggested the new stadium could cost $1 billion.
Palaszczuk said another 8,000 seats could be added to The Gabba, taking its capacity to 50,000, serviced by the nearby Cross River Rail station currently under construction. It would be higher than the existing stadium, to allow for pedestrian overpasses across nearby roads to funnel patrons directly into the new venue.
That would give The Gabba more seats than the old QE2 stadium, which currently has capacity of 48,500, but fewer seats than Suncorp Stadium (52,500). It would have better transport connections than the Nathan venue and in the circular format that suits athletic events and the Olympic opening and closing ceremonies.
“The Gabba has been home to our sport since 1895,” Palaszczuk said.
“A home for the 2032 Olympic Paralympic Games could be its crowning glory.”
“We’ve hosted the AFL here, we’ve hosted cricket here, but for the Olympics, this is front and centre – opening and closing ceremonies, athletics, you name it, it’s going to be the best,” she told Nine’s Today program.
Palaszczuk told parliament a key factor in deciding to use The Gabba was being able to utilise the adjacent Cross River Rail station. She noted the rail project was being delivered with “not one dollar from the Commonwealth” but her office was not in a position to clarify whether the $1 billion would include any rail station components.
The Gabba was built in 1895 and has undergone two substantial renovations and refurbishments since 1993.
The last major redevelopment was completed in 2005 when a 24-bay grandstand built for $128 million.
The Gabba’s public, corporate and media facilities also received a $35 million upgrade in 2020.
The Labor government will seek financial support from Brisbane City Council and the federal government for the project.
“We do need this, and it’s going to be utilised for the future, so they don’t want white elephants they want workhorses, and The Gabba is definitely a workhorse,” Palaszczuk said.
The International Olympics Committee named Brisbane as its preferred host city in February.
But a final decision rests on detailed discussions with Games chiefs and key commitments from the federal government.
Australian Olympics Committee president John Coates addressed cabinet on Monday, where MPs formally endorsed Brisbane’s candidacy.
“This is still contingent on guarantees that need to be received from the federal government,” Palaszczuk stressed on Monday.
She has had a discussion with Prime Minister Scott Morrison and more talks will occur in the coming weeks.
“We are basically doing years and months of work in a very short time frame to meet the deadlines the IOC has set us,” she said.
The state needed the boost the games would bring, including 130,000 jobs.
“It gives us hope, after going through the pandemic. It gives us hope for the future,” the premier said.
Morrison is expected to have more to say on Queensland’s Olympic plans on Tuesday.
Last month, he told the IOC the Australian government was firmly behind Brisbane to host the games.
But Brisbane is not without rivals.
Earlier this month, South Korea said Seoul had submitted a proposal to host the 2032 games, despite Brisbane’s frontrunner status.
Article Source: inqld.com.au
Irongate Group Acquires Two Brisbane Industrial Properties
Irongate Group (ASX: IAP; JSE: IAP) has entered into agreements to acquire:
- an industrial facility located at 57 – 83 Mudgee Street, Kingston QLD (Kingston Property); and
- an industrial facility to be constructed at Lot 24, Dunhill Crescent, Morningside QLD (Morningside Property).
Both properties are being acquired on a fund through basis. The purchase price of the Kingston Property is $14,320,000 representing an initial yield of 5.73%, and the purchase price of the Morningside Property is $5,932,000 representing an initial yield of 6.02%.
Commenting on the acquisitions, IAP CEO, Graeme Katz, said, “the Kingston Property will comprise two brand new, high quality generic warehouse and distribution facilities with 2,270m² leased to Construction Sciences for 10 years with fixed annual escalations of 2.5% and 3,250m² leased to Wako Kwikform for 8 years with fixed annual escalations of 3.0%. The Morningside Property comprises 1,016m² of space that will be leased to 3M Australia to be used as its Queensland head office and last mile distribution facility. The lease term is 10 years with fixed annual escalations of 3.0%.
Both acquisitions are due to complete in mid-May 2021.
Article Source: finance.yahoo.com
Brisbane Housing Market Insights: April 2021
The Urban Developer’s Brisbane housing market insights for March reveals increased demand for houses has been underpinned by increasing consumer sentiment and a surge in interstate migration.
This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling Brisbane’s housing market.
Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.
Brisbane house prices have soared to record heights after a steady 12 months of growth and a rebound in listings and sales during recent months.
Brisbane’s housing market has remained particularly unaltered by the closure of international borders, where historically high demand from overseas migrants has been disrupted.
Brisbane advanced a further 2.4 per cent during March, pushing it up 4.8 per cent for the recent quarter and 6.8 per cent for the year to date.
The current median value for dwellings is $548,260, which is $12,642 higher than just a month ago.
The median house price of $607,969 continues to attract interstate migrants from the larger markets of Sydney, where the median is now $1.1m, and Melbourne at $859,097.
The premium end of the Brisbane’s housing market is still leading the acceleration in capital gains with upper-quartile property values rising by 3.1 per cent. Lower quartile property values were up 1.1 per cent throughout March.
Brisbane median house and unit price values
^Source: Corelogic Hedonic Home Value Index – March
CoreLogic’s weekly auction clearance rate across the combined capitals has been at or above 80 per cent just five times since 2008, and four of those were in March, 2021.
The week ending March 7, recorded Brisbane’s highest auction clearance rate on record—82.3 per cent—while also being the busiest week for auctions since late March, 2018.
Total listings across the country remain 26 per cent below the five-year average.
Brisbane auction clearance rates
|Week||Clearance rate||Total Auctions|
|Week ending 7 March 2021||82.3%||107|
|Week ending 14 March 2021||65.2%||110|
|Week ending 21 March 2021||73.0%||151|
|Week ending 28 March 2021||68.8%||191|
^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates – March
Gross rental yields in Brisbane remains favourable compared to Sydney and Melbourne at 4.3 per cent.
According to the SQM, Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is currently 4 per cent and 5.2 per cent for units.
Vacancy rates are where your jaw may drop, with Brisbane at just 1.5 per cent, and other locations below 1 per cent.
Traditionally Brisbane’s vacancy rates have been tight, hovering well below the level of 2.5 per cent, which represents a balanced rental market.
Brisbane residential rental vacancy rate
|City||March 2021 vacancy rate||Monthly % change|
Rental stock on market
|City||March 2021 vacancies||Vacancy net loss|
^Source: SQM Research – March
Brisbane rent prices
|Type||Rent||Monthly % change||Annual % change|
^Source: SQM Research – March
The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland in February was 3,930, 40.5 per cent higher than recorded in January.
Loan data shows investors have started coming back into a housing market they had largely vacated and the boom is being driven overwhelmingly by established owner occupiers and first home buyers.
Queensland building approvals
^Australian Bureau of Statistics, (Suspension of trend series between May 2020 and Jul 2020 due to Covid-19)
|Dwelling||Approved||Monthly % change|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reference period February
Queensland home loan lending indicators
|Region||First home buyer loan commitments||First home buyer ratio – dwellings||First home buyer ratio – housing|
|Queensland||3078▲ ▼||39.6%▼||34.7% ▼|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – February
Queensland interstate migration
|Region||September (quarter) 2020 arrivals||September (quarter) 2020 departures||September 2020 quarter net|
^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – September quarter 2020
Brisbane’s housing market: policy updates
Australia’s central bank will maintain low interest rates to support the country’s ongoing economic recovery and surging housing market, buoyed by its busiest Easter auction market on record.
Strong tailwinds will bolster the Australian economy through the second half of the year, but macro-prudential measures are likely to be introduced to ease house price pressures in 2022.
Queensland faces a “hard road” during the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says.
Brisbane housing market forecasts
ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy while Commonwealth Bank updated its forecasts, projecting a strong rebound in prices across the second half of 2021.
CBA now expects Brisbane house prices to increase by 16.6 per cent to December 2022 compared to 13.7 per cent in Sydney and 12.4 per cent in Melbourne.
Westpac has also updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.
Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com
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