Brisbane property prices will start to catch up to Melbourne and Sydney’s regardless of what happens with inflation and interest rates rises.
An upsurge for prices in the Queensland capital is tipped as an outcome of four 2022 scenarios released by SQM Research in Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report.
The forecasting showed property prices would slow next year, agreeing with the big four banks’ predictions, however, some cities would fare better than others.
Brisbane would record the largest dwelling price rises during 2022, supported by expected strong interstate migration flows and relatively good housing affordability.
The price falls would be led by “overvalued” houses in Sydney and Melbourne, as they were sensitive to even minor intervention by the banking regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority.
Scenario 1: the cash rate would remain unchanged, quantitative easing would scale back, headline inflation at 3 to 5 per cent and further APRA action would happen by June 2022.
Scenario 2: second half year cash rate rises 0.25 to 0.50 per cent, quantitative easing would scale back, headline inflation at 4 to 6 per cent and further APRA action would happen by June 2022.
Scenario 3: the cash rate would remain unchanged, quantitative easing would scale back, headline inflation at 3 to 5 per cent and there would be no APRA action.
Scenario 4: cash rate rises 0.25 to 0.50 per cent in the first half of the year, quantitative easing would scale back, headline inflation at 4 to 6 per cent and further APRA action would happen by March 2022.
Capital city dwelling price change forecasts
|City||Scenario 1||Scenario 2||Scenario 3||Scenario 4|
|Perth||+3 to +7%||+2 to +6%||+5 to +10%||+1 to +6%|
|Brisbane||+8 to +14%||+8 to +14%||+9 to +16%||+3 to +6%|
|Darwin||-4 to +1%||-5 to 0%||-2 to +4%||-6 to +1%|
|Melbourne||-4 to +1%||-5 to 0%||-2 to +4%||-6 to +1%|
|Sydney||-2 to +4 %||-3 to +3%||+3 to +8%||-7 to -2%|
|Adelaide||+4 to +8%||+4 to +8%||+6 to +11%||+1 to +6%|
|Hobart||-3 to +2%||-4 to +1%||+2 to +7%||-5 to 0%|
|Canberra||+5 to +9%||+5 to +9%||+7 to +12%||+1 to +6%|
|Capital cities weighted average||0 to 5%||-1 to +4%||+3 to +8%||-4 to +1%|
^Source: SQM Research
The modelling also predicted home prices in regional Australia would correct, particularly for inland communities, as people returned to the capital cities.
Meanwhile, rent would rise in all capital cities over and above the consumer price index.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the housing market was already showing signs of passing its peak.
“If the Australian housing market does not slowdown by mid-2022, APRA will likely keep intervening in home lending until the market does slowdown,” Christopher said.
“We cannot afford another year of 20-per-cent-plus gains across the national housing market.
“And so, to ensure a soft landing for the market, it is best we see additional intervention sooner rather than later to rein in property valuations.”
The Reserve Bank of Australia has said interest rates were likely to hold in 2022 but APRA intervention could occur as early as next month.
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
Top tips for bidding in a hot property auction market
The odds of being the successful bidder at a property auction can be improved by being well-informed and having a strategy, rather than just showing up and hoping for the best.
Auctions listings in Sydney and Melbourne are running at about twice the levels of 12 months ago, after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and as owners rush to bring their properties to market while there is still price momentum and before the holiday season starts.
A combination of seasonal factors and pandemic lockdowns saw the number of auctions tumble in July and August, before hitting a low in early September. Since then, listing volumes have been increasing by about 10 per cent a week across both major capital cities.
For the week to last Sunday, Sydney held 1577 auctions – the second busiest week on record – and Melbourne held 1891, its best week since late March, figures from CoreLogic show.
Preparing for an auction
Arjun Paliwal, the founder and head of research of buyer’s agency InvestorKit, says auction bidders need to monitor the most recent property sales until the time of the auction, as prices will have likely moved higher than they were just a couple of months ago.
“To minimise getting swept up in the action and paying more than initially planned, have a shortlist of several properties to fall back on,” Paliwal says.
“Not having all your eggs in one basket will mean you’re less likely to make a regretful over-purchase [by paying too much],” he says.
Cate Bakos, a buyer’s agent and the president of the Real Estate Buyer’s Agents Association, says some homebuyers may have to lower their expectations in a hot property market.
You should be prepared to compromise on cosmetic elements, but never light, orientation or location, she says. Buyers need to prioritise features, such as floor plan. “It’s the features of a property that you can’t change that matter most,” Bakos says.
“If a home has good bones and is structurally sound, an ugly duckling might be worth a second look, particularly if the neighbourhood is a good fit,” she says.
Communication is key
Bakos says it is good to get to know a property’s selling agent and the auctioneer as, if it appears that you have a good rapport with them, it can be intimidating to other bidders.
“It is also interesting how attire can create an image. Dressing a bit more formally can signal to other bidders that you can afford to pay a bit more,” she says.
And it is probably better not to have anyone standing with you who looks nervous, she says.
Patrick Bright, buyer’s agent at EPS Property, says bidders need set a clear limit on what they are prepared to pay before an auction and not get caught up in the emotion of the moment.
“Bids should be made with confidence and try to get a good view of the auctioneer, the agent and the other bidders, so that you can see what is going on,” he says.
Bright says if you are “nervous type,” consider getting help from a third party, such as a buyer’s agent or a trusted friend or family member who is experienced at auctions, to bid on your behalf.
Don’t feel rushed
It is important not to feel that if you miss out at an auction that it is the end of the world.
There are more auctions now and clearance rates are falling, creating more opportunities to buy, CoreLogic figures shows. That also means properties are likely to be on the market for longer, helping to tip the balance towards patient buyers.
Louis Christopher, founder of SQM Research, is expecting capital city home prices to peak in the first half of next year, with possible price falls as early as mid-2022.
He expects a catalyst for the falls to be further intervention by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to restrict home lending.
The regulator has forced banks to use more cautious interest rate assumptions when assessing new home loan customers. The change is expected to reduce new customers’ borrowing capacity by about 5 per cent.
Article Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au
Pets make Brisbane’s first build-to-rent apartments a home
Brisbane’s first rental only apartment building, 36 Lambert Kangaroo Point, is fast becoming home to a thriving community of happy residents, including of the four-legged variety, since opening its doors in July.
One of the building’s biggest advocates is Pablo, a French Bulldog, who took up residence in the pet-friendly building in early July, with his owners Joan and Geoff Gardner, who were seeking a city-change.
For the couple, who downsized from a five-bedroom house in Springfield Lakes, having the option to bring a pet was the clincher in choosing the building, according to Mrs Gardner.
“Having a pet can really limit your rental options, so we had been looking for a suitable property for about three months, and given the sub-standard quality of many other places that did accept pets, we were really struggling to find a place before we came across 36 Lambert.
“We love the fact that there are other dogs in the building, and we are not frowned upon when we hop in the lift with Pablo. The other residents love him.
“There are heaps of people with dogs around here. We walk along the river every morning, which is spectacular, and visit the ‘dogs only’ part of the beach in Kangaroo Point, where they can safely run off-lead. It’s only a six-minute walk away, and all the dogs are so well behaved.
Mrs Gardner also appreciates 36 Lambert’s first-class amenities and location.
“The rooftop garden is amazing with the stunning views, and the facilities, such as the pool and dining room, are all brand new and perfectly maintained. We have absolutely no maintenance and you can even hang pictures on the walls, which you can’t do in a normal rental property.
“We wanted a more urban experience and to have everything on our doorstep, so we couldn’t be better located. I work from home a couple of days a week, and post-COVID, expect to resume regular interstate travel in my role as a Sales Director. The airport is only a 20-minute drive, so that’s perfect.
“Kangaroo Point is great for us as Geoff works at the Lytton Oil Refinery, which isn’t far away either. We’re even saving on tolls.
“I barely drive anywhere now as we often catch the ferry to Eagle Street Pier, which is literally across the water, to check out all the restaurants over there. Or we take Pablo with us to Howard Smith Wharves, which is a lovely 15-minute walk.
“If we ever need anything, 36 Lambert’s Resident Experience Team is fantastic, and nothing is a problem for them. They are really responsive and love dogs. Pablo always pulls into their office for a visit whenever we come home. It’s like having a hotel concierge service.
“The build-to-rent experience offers more than we could have imagined, and we would thoroughly recommend it over traditional renting,” added Mrs Gardner.
36 Lambert offers extensive amenities not usually found in traditional apartment buildings, where renters can have exclusive access to an infinity pool; 24-hour gym; rooftop terrace complete with BBQ, cabanas, spa and stunning views; sauna; dining room for 30 guests
complete with commercial-grade kitchen; television lounge/games room; indoor and outdoor yoga spaces; parcel lockers; bike storage; dog washing facilities and a children’s play area.
The building offers renters an amenity-rich lifestyle with a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, penthouses, as well as two and three-bedroom split-level townhouses with house-like proportions, all available for lease on flexible lease terms.
The building is managed by a full-time on-site Resident Experience Team, who are available to assist with resident’s lifestyle needs.
The team is friendly and very responsive, according to Mr de Guzman, who recently relocated from the Gold Coast.
“It’s great having them onsite. They attend to the building and residents’ needs really well,” said Mr de Guzman, who lives with his daughter Akira, and their cavoodle ‘Miso Soup’.
Working from home as a Business and Strategy Consultant, Mr de Guzman says he wouldn’t choose to live anywhere else in Brisbane.
“We looked for a house to rent for about a month and then I decided to inspect 36 Lambert, and I was totally blown away by it. We love it here. The views are amazing, it’s nice and quiet and cruisy.
“There are quite a few regular rental apartments on the market, but this one really stood out. It’s so close to the water, is safe for my five-year-old daughter, and the general standard of the building is very high in every regard.
“We love taking Miso Soup for walks along the river and also take him on bike rides.
“He loves going to the pet events held on the roof by the Resident Experience Team, where he meets other dogs in the building. He’s made loads of friends and gets excited when he sees them in the lift or hallway.
“My close friend lives in another pet-friendly building, but the smell of the pets there is quite overwhelming. That’s not a problem here at all, as the other pet owners are very courteous and always clean up after their pets.”
Mr de Guzman is also a fan of the lifestyle offered at 36 Lambert.
“We make full use of all the facilities in the building, especially the kids’ playroom, which Akira loves,” he added.
“We love the French bakery nearby, the cafes and restaurants, particularly The Prawnster, where you eat seafood straight off the boats.
“We’re now big advocates of the build-to-rent model. Before we left the Gold Coast, we temporarily stayed in another apartment building and found owners rent their place out on Airbnb, making it quite disruptive. You can’t do that here, which is great.”
According to Marissa Davis, 36 Lambert’s General Manager, residents are experiencing a lifestyle never before seen in Brisbane.
“Build-to-rent generally offers tenants more facilities and services than they would have access to in ‘build-to-sell‘ projects and traditional rental accommodation. Residents enjoy unrivalled amenities within the building, and will soon have a long list of on-demand services available,” said Ms Davis.
36 Lambert’s management team is working with local businesses and services to provide residents with unrivalled convenience by offering a comprehensive range of optional services, such as a dog walker and groomer; car detailer; removalist; apartment sitter; dry-cleaning services; home cleaner; handyman; babysitter; beautician; personal trainer or masseuse, as well as vehicle hire.
“Our residents really appreciate being able to have their pets with them. It really makes the difference between living in a house or a home,” added Ms Davis.
“Being pet-friendly also encourages residents to connect with each other more easily. We all know the amazing ability dogs have in breaking the ice between people.”
All residences at 36 Lambert offer light-filled contemporary interiors with extensive views across the Brisbane River, CBD or leafy surrounds, and come with high quality fixtures and fittings, and a full suite of appliances, window coverings and kitchen amenities.
Weekly rents range from $470 for a one-bedroom apartment, from $595 for a two-bedroom apartment, from $990 for a three-bedroom apartment, from $795 for a townhouse, and from $1,695 for a three-bedroom penthouse.
The building is perfectly positioned just south of the CBD and the Brisbane River, with Kangaroo Point boasting a variety of parks, restaurants, cafes, recreational activities and walking paths.
The Main Street at Story Bridge East, Stop 6 bus interchange is a three-minute walk away.
For further information on 36 Lambert Kangaroo Point, please visit 36lambertkangaroopoint.com.
Best market we’ve ever seen’ – QLD sales achieve record results
The Queensland market has been roaring throughout 2021, with median prices up around +20 per cent for the year across the state.
Where other areas in the country are now beginning to soften, vendors in the Sunshine State are still experiencing incredible selling conditions that are leading to standout results everywhere you look.
We spoke to top agents in Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast to explore some of their recent sales and just how strong the local market is.
Sunshine Coast homes attract record prices in clear seller’s market
“I can’t recall the amount of activity I’ve seen internationally and interstate coming to Pelican Waters and particularly the Sunshine Coast,” explains Linda Feltman of McGrath in Caloundra.
“Everything is selling well above expectations. It’s even surprising agents sometimes.”
Since the pandemic hit, the Sunshine Coast has been one of the most desirable parts of the country when it comes to property. With its ideal weather, minimal impacts from Covid shutdowns and overall lifestyle benefits, it’s easy to see why.
The sale of 26 Millennium Circuit in Pelican Waters, the lakeside suburb which sits on the southern tip of the Sunshine Coast region, is a great example of the success sellers in the area are experiencing.
The stunning lakeside home boasted four bedrooms plus a guest wing, huge open living and dining, a gold class cinema, a large pool and spa, and views of the internationally renowned Pelican Waters Golf Club.
“From the moment it went online, we had 66 enquiries within 24 hours,” Ms Feltman says.
The owners were hoping for any offers over $2m, and with the huge levels of buyer interest, they ended up securing a fantastic result at $2.2m, a record sale for the lake area.
8 Bond St was another big hit for the area. The modern, sun-drenched four-bedder was on the market for offers over $1.495m, and again expectations were exceeded when the deal was done at $1.8m.
“On average, at the moment we’re getting anywhere from 100 to 170 enquiries per property,” Ms Feltman explains.
“We’re also dealing with a minimum of three to four offers. One of my properties the other day had nine offers.
“We’ve got huge demand and we haven’t got enough listings, so the supply is low and the demand is high. So whenever you have those two factors—and it’s like that at the moment—obviously it’s a seller’s market, and there are a lot of families that need to purchase on the Sunshine Coast.”
Brisbane sellers in the ‘best market we’ve ever seen’
“If I was to describe the market quite simply I would describe it as an absolute seller’s market,” says Tony O’Doherty, principal at Belle Property Bulimba.
“It’s often hard to know what market you’re in, and it’s very rare that it’s such an extreme one-sided market,” he explains.
“There is no line in the sand… the market has been as good as it’s been in the Brisbane environment.”
The Queensland capital has, similarly to the Sunshine Coast, been experiencing a historic boom that’s led to some remarkable results for sellers.
30 Grosvenor St in Balmoral is what Mr O’Doherty calls a very good example as to how the market is performing.
The five-bed family home attracted a wide array of buyers including people from overseas and interstate.
“We had people from America, Byron Bay, Sydney, Melbourne, and a lot of Brisbanites,” he says, adding that despite the media attention on how many out-of-towners have been showing interest in Queensland real estate, “most of our transactions are people who already live in the suburb.”
The owners of the Balmoral house originally purchased the property for $1.3m in 2015. Since then it hasn’t undergone any significant renovations.
After debating when to sell, they felt the market conditions gave them the confidence to list. Fast forward to November 2021 and it sold for $2.15m, a staggering +66 per cent increase in just six years.
Mr O’Doherty also points to the recent sale of 22 Orchard St in nearby Hawthorne as a demonstration of the current power of the market.
Just last year the owners had the three-bedroom house on the market for an extended period and couldn’t achieve a $1m price. In the 2021 market, the property sold for $1.415m.
These kinds of results aren’t only being seen in a particular price bracket, either. “It’s right the way through the market. It’s the million-dollar product, it’s the seven million dollar product, and everything in between,” Mr O’Doherty says.
“If you are a seller and you want to transact your home, this is the best market we’ve ever seen.”
What’s next for Queensland property?
While there’s talk of the property boom reaching its peak in other key markets like Sydney and Melbourne, the near future still looks very bright in the Sunshine State.
Ms Feltman expects that, once the state’s borders open in mid-December, there may be a short lull in activity as families reunite.
“But after that, once mid-January comes along, I think it’s going to be extremely busy because people will be up here and they’re going to be ready to go into real estate mode and need to buy fairly quickly,” she says.
“I envisage the next six months on the Sunshine Coast will be phenomenal, and then after that, it will depend.
“I think people will start to travel again comfortably, I think that’s going to definitely play a part in the real estate industry.”
She also points out that the 2032 Olympics announcement has set off a wave of new investor interest, so the long-term growth prospects for the region are extremely strong too.
Mr O’Doherty notes that Brisbane has seen a huge amount of growth in a short period, to the point that it puts things in uncharted territory and makes the future difficult to predict.
“This is not a natural economy, you’ve got a lot of money circulating that wouldn’t be if it wasn’t for Covid,” he says.
“I believe we’re in such a heavily geared seller’s market, if you are a seller waiting to sell—what are you waiting for?
“If you’re looking to buy, if you buy the right block size in the right location, it’ll never go backwards. If you’re looking to sell, it’s an absolute seller’s market.”
Article Source: www.openagent.com.au
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