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Brisbane is more likely to see a property boom: Terry Ryder

Brisbane is more likely to see a property boom Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

Real estate is buzzing with questions about the so-called recovery in property markets. Is it real? Does it have legs? Is it a dead cat bounce?

Before providing answers, we need to understand the questions, some of which show a chronic lack of understanding about real estate markets.

The questions assume that what’s happening in Sydney and Melbourne reflects the nation. It doesn’t.

Generalisation is the blight of real estate consumers. We’re afflicted with writers and commentators who discuss Australia as a single market, quoting economists whose knowledge of the intricacies of residential real estate could be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon.

The overriding assumption is that events in the two biggest cities describe the entire nation. If they’re booming, the “Australian property market” is booming. If Sydney and Melbourne prices are falling, then prices are falling across the nation.

Journalists who parrot this nonsense – in the process of re-cycling press releases from lazy research firms and ignorant economists – are treating their customers shabbily. Misinformation proliferates.

So, are property prices recovering in Hobart? Well no, they’re not, because they didn’t fall. Hobart prices remain comfortably higher than last year, having been rising for the past three years.

Are property prices recovering in Canberra? Also no, because Canberra didn’t have the Sydney boom and it didn’t suffer Sydney’s post-boom correction. It’s just been chugging along happily, as Canberra tends to do. It’s the perennial Goldilocks of Australian real estate – not too hot, not too cold, just right.

Price recovery is also a foreign concept in Regional Victoria because prices have been rising strongly in many towns and cities outside of Melbourne for the past two years, and continue to do. Dozens the regional centres across Victoria have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past year.

So when media talks about the possibility of recovery in Australian house prices, people who live in Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Warragul, Bright, Mildura, Wangaratta, Seymour, Moe, Kyneton and many other Victorian centres wonder what on earth they mean.

There are similar scenarios is many regional locations across New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland.

When media discusses recovery in real estate prices, they’re essentially referring to Sydney and Melbourne, which dominate coverage in big media, to the exclusion of all other locations.

That’s where the question of market recovery and the realness of price increases is focused.

What we’re witnessing is an end to the post-boom downturn and price correction in Sydney and Melbourne. The evidence is strong and real. Looking across price data from multiple sources, we first saw an easing of the rate of decline, then a bottoming of the downturn – and then, increasingly, signs of a return to growth.

This was accompanied by an improvement in auction clearance rates – which, as I commented last week, are a rather blunt instrument by which to measure markets but, taken alongside other data, can add some weight to overall conclusions.

Often anecdotal evidence is more telling than the statistics, and this also is increasingly positive. All kinds of property professionals have been feeling the upturn in demand and the growing pressure on prices, in an environment where stock on the market is generally low.

None of this is terribly surprising. The perfect storm of negatives that impacted the big city markets in the first half of the year has blown over – and has been replaced by a series of fortunate events, starting with the Federal Election result.

Too much has been made (as usual) of the impact of interest rate reductions. These don’t hurt, but interest rate levels are never the prime motivator of events in real estate.

Far more important are the improvement in overall sentiment, the end of the fear created by Labor policies, the greater ease in obtaining finance and the state of economies at a local level.

So what we have in Sydney and Melbourne is a fairly normal post-boom market. The correction phase that usually happens after a prolonged up-cycle has happened and now we’re back into situation normal – healthy activity and some pressure on prices, but with little likelihood of a return to boom conditions.

We’re more likely to see booms in other places – Brisbane, where conditions are improving and prices are attractive; Adelaide, which has an emerging economy likely to underpin an upsurge in real estate demand, helped by great value-for-money real estate; Perth, which is fighting back after a long downturn in the underlying WA economy; and many parts of regional Australia, such as regional Queensland, where a growing number of regional centres have improving economies, lower vacancies and attractive price/yield scenarios.

 

 

Source: www.propertyobserver.com.au

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Brisbane

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off?

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off

First-home buyers hoping to take advantage of a new government scheme will have to look to the outer city fringes to find a free-standing house, new analysis shows.

But, they will be able to choose from up to 40 per cent of all properties, including units in each capital city.

The federal government’s First Home Loan Deposit scheme, introduced at the start of this year, helps first home buyers to purchase a property under various price caps.

Designed to enable the purchase of a modest residence, homes worth up to just $700,000 are eligible for Sydney, while the cut-off is $600,000 in Melbourne, $475,000 for Brisbane, $500,000 in Canberra and $400,000 in Perth.

It lets buyers avoid paying lenders mortgage insurance even with a deposit as low as 5 per cent, for singles on an income of $125,000 or less, or couples with a combined income of $200,000.

The government then goes guarantor for the rest of the deposit, in effect allowing people to take out low-deposit loans without paying lenders mortgage insurance or going to the “Bank of Mum and Dad” to top up their deposit.

Only 10,000 loans are available nationwide per financial year, and since the scheme was introduced at the start of this year, 6500 of those spots have already been snapped up.

So, where can these buyers find a home under the price caps for each capital city?

An analysis by Domain of reported property sales in each capital city from July to December last year showed just where first-home buyers had the best chance of jumping onto the property ladder.

Brisbane had the highest percentage of any capital city of property sales under its threshold of $475,000 – with more than 13,500 of its 33,315 sales meeting the price cut off.

The lowest percentage of sales under the threshold was in Canberra, which saw 34 per cent of total properties sold under its cap of $500,000 – and only 13 per cent of properties were houses.

What is available for first-home buyers?

  Percentage of property type sold below the price caps
Capital cityFHLDS price capHousesUnits/apartmentsAll dwellings
Brisbane$475,00034%65%41%
Perth$400,00033%62%35%
Adelaide$400,00032%69%38%
Hobart$400,00035%51%38%
Canberra$500,00013%62%34%
Darwin$375,00024%70%39%

 

Domain economist Trent Wiltshire said the scheme was designed to target a “modest home”.

“I think the price caps seem pretty reasonable, when you look at all the capitals you can buy around 30 to 40 per cent of all properties put up for sale in the second half of last year,” Mr Wiltshire said.

He said houses in the inner and middle suburbs that met the price caps were hard to come by, but that in the outer suburbs there were more options.

“It’s pretty obvious that it’s going to be hard to buy a house in the inner city,” he said. “Also, in all the capitals, quite a high proportion of units are available.”

Melbourne and Darwin also saw a low number of house sales that met their price caps of $600,000 and $375,000 respectively.

Areas with the most house sales in Melbourne included the statistical areas of Wyndham – which included suburbs Werribee, Hoppers Crossing and Point Cook – Casey South (Cranbourne, Hampton Park, Narre Warren South) and Whittlesea-Wallan (Bundoora, Mill Park, Mernda). More than half of all house sales in these areas were for less than $600,000.

First National Westwood agent Rob Westwood said his agency, based in Werribee, purposefully put properties on the market on Christmas Eve last year in the hopes of catching the eye of First Home Loan Deposit scheme punters.

“We definitely noticed the difference straight away,” Mr Westwood said. “That first Saturday back after New Year’s, there was a big influx of first-home buyers.”

The most house sales in Brisbane were in the Brown Plains statistical area, which included suburbs Chambers Flat, Boronia Heights and Marsden. The most units were sold were in the Brisbane inner area, which included Brisbane City, Fortitude Valley and New Farm.

LJ Hooker Browns Plains agent Scott Brannigan said he had seen more first home buyers interested in taking advantage of the home loan scheme.

“It’s a good time to get in, especially if you’re a first-home buyer, with all the incentives available.”

Brisbane: first-home buyers using the FHLDS have plenty of choice in Brisbane’s outer suburbs and also units in the inner-city

Proportion of sold properties under Brisbane’s $475,000 price cap, by SA3 region

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off

Canberra’s price cap has been set at $500,000, and in nearly all districts except Weston Creek, 30 to 40 per cent of properties sold were under the threshold, the analysis found.

But first-home buyers may need to look for an apartment, with very few houses sold below the price point in most regions.

Canberra: there are few options for first-home buyers using the FHLDS to purchase a house

Proportion of sold properties under Canberra’s $500,000 price cap, by SA3 region

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off 1

Perth, Adelaide and Hobart all had cut-offs of $400,000.

In Perth, the areas south of the city were most accessible, with 82 per cent of homes sold in Kwinana below the price cap. Rockingham offered 66 per cent of homes under the cut-off, with 61 per cent in Mandurah.

Perth: most opportunities for first-home buyers using the FHLDS are in Perth’s southern suburbs and in Mandurah

Proportion of sold properties under Perth’s $400,000 price cap, by SA3 region

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off 2

For Adelaide, Onkaparinga near the Mclaren Vale wine region had the most house sales that would suit first-home hopefuls.

In the northern suburbs, 87 per cent of homes in Playford were below $400,000, and 76 per cent in Salisbury.

Adelaide: most opportunities for first-home buyers using the FHLDS are in the north

Proportion of sold properties under Adelaide’s $400,000 price cap, by SA3 region

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off 3

In Hobart, the North West area was the most popular for houses under $400,000.

Some 72 per cent of sales in the Brighton region were accessible, while the inner suburbs proved a challenge with only 12 per cent of homes below the threshold.

Hobart: for first-home buyers using the FHLDS there are few options under the price cap in the inner suburbs

Proportion of sold properties under Hobart’s $400,000 price cap, by SA3 region

Where can first-home buyers find a home under the First Home Loan Deposit scheme cut-off 4

 

 

 

 

This article is republished from www.domain.com.au under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Brisbane

Six houses sell for more than $1 million in bumper Brisbane auction weekend

Six houses sell for more than $1 million in bumper Brisbane auction weekend (3)

Brisbane’s auction market posted another bumper weekend, with six properties selling for more than $1 million. A total of 81 properties went to auction at the weekend, with a healthy clearance rate of 64 per cent.

The five-bedroom, three-bathroom house at 12 Cavell Terrace, Ashgrove, sold under the hammer in a busy auction. About 60 people gathered at the house to watch for just 15 minutes as a massive 11 registered bidders battled for the gorgeous home.

Bidding opened at $1.2 million and the competition quickly came down to three bidders. The house was called on the market at $1.44 million, narrowing the field down to two bidders who bumped up the price in increments of $1000 to $5000.

After several minutes of fierce competition, the hammer was dropped and the house was sold for $1,542,000.

Six houses sell for more than $1 million in bumper Brisbane auction weekend (4)

The property was marketed by selling agents Christine McKay & Toni Malaquin of Harcourts Solutions. Mrs McKay said there was immense interest in the property, with 98 people inspecting over the three-week campaign. Some visited the house five times.

She said the majority of this interest came, unsurprisingly, from professionals and families with younger children.

“We ran a very tight campaign over three weeks,” she said. “Very good advertising, beautiful photography. It’s a typical Ashgrovian, and they are a very popular home.”

The vendors had lived in the house for several years. Their children have recently moved out, so they’re now downsizing to the country. Meanwhile, the buyers were a young family with children.

Six houses sell for more than $1 million in bumper Brisbane auction weekend (1)

Mrs McKay said the result demonstrated the importance of running a good campaign that ticked all the boxes. It also spoke to a Brisbane auction market that was brimming with buyers keen to walk away with a shiny new set of keys.

“There’s huge numbers of buyers out right now, and very little stock,” she said.

Elsewhere, the five-bedroom, two-bathroom house on 607 square metres at 32 Dennis Street, Grange, sold for $1.32 million. While on the other side of the city, the five-bedroom, three-bathroom house set on a spacious 767-square-metre block at 28 Coneyhurst Street, Carindale, sold under the hammer for $1,215,000.

Nearby, the classic Queenslander at 95 Belgrave Street, Morningside, was sold in a hotly contested auction for $1.03 million, marking the first time the property had been put to market in 42 years.

Six houses sell for more than $1 million in bumper Brisbane auction weekend (4)

About 40 people packed into the home to watch for 15 minutes as five registered bidders attempted to stake their claim on the two-bedroom, one-bathroom house set on a substantial 809-square-metre block.

Bidding opened at $850,000, with two bidders very quickly moving to the front of the pack. As the price continued to rise, a third bidder got involved before the auction was paused briefly at $960,000.

A few bids later, the house was called on the market at $995,000, and then quickly snatched up by the highest bidder for $1.03 million.

Selling agent Samuel Battel, of Harcourts Property Centre, said the size of the block combined with its low to medium-density zoning meant the property appealed to a wide variety of buyers.

“We had an investor there,” he said. “We had two renovator owner-occupiers who were going to do a bit of work straight away, probably live in it for 12 months then maybe think of selling it. We had a developer who ended up buying the property, and we had another owner occupier there that was very much looking for their long-term family home.”

Mr Battel said properties of this block size were increasingly hard to find, so buyers saw it as a very rare opportunity. This was amplified by the property’s history, and that it hadn’t been to market in such a long time.

“It’s a more and more scarce product,” he said. “Particularly that close to the CBD; the majority of them are being chopped up. Either in half, if possible, or having townhouses put around them.”

The vendors had moved out of the house several years ago, but saying goodbye was still an emotional experience because the house had acted as a family home for many years.

 

 

 

This article is republished from www.domain.com.au under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Brisbane

Brisbane Poised To Attract More Buyers

Brisbane Poised To Attract More Buyers

Brisbane’s housing market is poised to attract many potential homebuyers this year, supported by its infrastructure pipeline and the increasing interstate migration, according to a forecast by the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA).

The affordability gap between Brisbane and the two biggest capital city markets, Sydney and Melbourne, has influenced the influx of people to Queensland, boosting the housing demand in Brisbane.

FBAA said Sydney’s property cycles, in particular, have been the driving force of interstate migration to Brisbane.

“The real effect of this migration increase has come into question and rightly so, how influential can an additional 30,000 people be to an entire capital city market. The driving force is the affordability gap between Sydney and Melbourne,” FBAA said.

Recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that Sydney is currently 64% more expensive than Brisbane.

“Each time we’ve seen the price gap rise, we’ve seen an exodus of people out of New South Wales to Queensland resulting in Brisbane price increases,” FBAA said.

Furthermore, the pipeline of infrastructure developments in Brisbane might boost its appeal to potential buyers.

Some of the anticipated developments include the Brisbane Airport expansion, Brisbane Metro, Northshore Hamilton Precinct, Cross River Rail, Brisbane Live, and Queens Wharf redevelopment.

“The evolution of Brisbane combined with the proven market drivers will be critical to the direction in which Brisbane’s property cycle moves. In terms of price rises, we’ll require the imbalance of supply and demand to favour the demand,” FBAA said.

According to a separate forecast by Domain, Brisbane is slated to record the second-highest price growth this year next to Sydney.

“We forecast the median house price to rise by 8% in 2020 and in 2021. This follows a period of soft price growth when Brisbane’s house prices rose only 5% in the previous three years,” said Trent Shire, an economist at Domain.

With this price-growth projection, Brisbane could witness its median house price go over the $600,000 mark for the first time.

 

 

This article is republished from www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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