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Brisbane house prices see their steepest fall in 9 years: Domain

Brisbane house prices see their steepest fall in 9 years Domain

Greater Brisbane house prices fell by $8,000 over the June quarter, the first quarterly fall in a year and the steepest in almost nine years.

Unit prices also declined by just over $16,000 in the June quarter.

A two-speed property market has developed across Brisbane; with Brisbane City, Moreton Bay, Scenic Rim and Somerset house prices falling over the quarter, while Ipswich grew, and Logan remained stable.

Brisbane house prices see their steepest fall in 9 years Domain

June 2020 QoQ change for Brisbane house and unit prices

“Greater Brisbane house prices fell 1.4 per cent over the June quarter. This is the first quarterly fall in a year and the steepest in almost nine years. However house prices remain higher compared to last year, marking seven-and-a-half years of annual capital growth. A two-speed property market has developed across the LGAs with Brisbane City, Moreton Bay, Redland, Scenic Rim and Somerset house prices falling over the quarter, while Ipswich grew, and Logan remained stable.”

“Prior to COVID-19, there was promising growth in prices for Greater Brisbane. Although this has reversed in the June quarter, the fall in prices to date has been minimal considering the economic aftermath of border closures and shutdowns. An initial pull back in seller and buyer activity during the lockdown acted to underpin prices, government financial support has kept distressed or urgent sales minimal, and incentives have encouraged buying journeys to begin.”

“The outlook for residential property has improved vastly in recent weeks. Sentiment towards housing and the purchase of a home has bucked the overall more negative sentiment around the broader economy. Nationally the time to buy a dwelling pushed to a six-month high according to the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment. Affordability is clearly front of mind, with the biggest jumps in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.”

“Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast housing values outperformed Greater Brisbane over the June quarter. Gold Coast houses pushed to a new record of $660,000 following a 1.5 per cent quarterly growth, while houses on the Sunshine Coast nudged marginally lower. Unit values held across both cities over the June quarter, with Sunshine Coast units at the record achieved last quarter. Despite the devastating impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus pandemic housing values are steady illustrating the desirability of coastal lifestyle regions,” said Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell.




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Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020

There is so much variation in what is going on around Australia right now. The Brisbane market is proving its resilience yet again, compared with other capital city markets during the current pandemic, writes Melinda Jennison.

Let’s take a look at some the data and some of our real-time observations to summarise what is happening in the Brisbane housing market and also the Brisbane unit market right now.

Brisbane property market prices

According to the latest Hedonic Home Value Index data by Corelogic, dwelling values in Brisbane saw a -0.4 per cent decline in value over the month of July 2020.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (2)

While the broader data shows some slight falls in dwelling values across the month and the quarter, the Brisbane market has proven its resilience to more widespread price falls.

Of course, there are many things in place supporting all property markets around the country. Record-low interest rates make borrowing very easy for those with secure jobs and good incomes. The record levels of government support and also the repayment holidays for distressed borrowers also help to insulate any immediate impact on property values. Additionally, the federal and state government incentives for first home buyers has increased demand for that group of buyers across the country.

In the Brisbane housing market, we saw median values for the greater Brisbane region fall -0.3 per cent across the month of July 2020. The current median value for a Brisbane house is now $555,284.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (3)

The unit market in Brisbane saw a slightly higher median value decline of -0.5 per cent for the month of July 2020. The current unit price in Brisbane is now $384,681.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (4)

What is happening in the rental market in Brisbane?

At a city level, the rental market in Brisbane has definitely recovered, although there are still some at risk markets around our city.

In short, the vacancy rate in many locations is trending down and is very tight. The areas where this trend is not happening are in the Brisbane CBD and locations immediately surrounding this and also in areas where there are a lot of higher-density unit developments. In these locations, vacancy is still a big problem. Therefore, these markets remain high-risk.

Asking rents according to SQM Research across the city have also been trending higher, so this is also reassuring for property investors.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (5)

That said, Brisbane is not one property market and caution definitely needs to be taken when looking at a postcode level.  You will see in the Brisbane CBD, for example, the situation is VERY different.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (6)

What are we seeing on the ground across Brisbane?

In our opinion, the data above may be slightly misleading based on our on-the-ground observations.  Despite the overall median data trend showing very slight falls in house values, we are in fact seeing quality housing in very high demand. Some open homes we have attended over the month of July have seen more than 30-40 groups through. This illustrates that buyers are still very active in the Brisbane property market.

Advertised properties that are listed for sale in desirable locations are being sold very quickly in Brisbane. Often, the sale is a result of multiple offers being submitted on the property. If listed for sale by auction, they are achieving high prices with multiple registered bidders.

There are markets within markets, and we are seeing strong prices being paid for quality properties in many regions around our city. In the most recent Herron Todd White Month in Review, it is confirmed that the coronavirus crisis has not resulted in a measurable fall in property prices across Brisbane, so buyers should not expect a bargain due to the pandemic. They also confirm that many properties are trading off-market, which is a trend we are seeing also.

How does the Brisbane property market compare with other capital cities around Australia?

Melbourne and Sydney are leading the decline in capital city values. Melbourne recorded a -1.2 per cent fall in dwelling values across the month, whereas Sydney saw a fall of -0.9 per cent in dwelling values for July 2020.

This is certainly now surprising, given the recent second wave of coronavirus cases in Melbourne. This has now resulted in stage 4 restrictions with the Victorian state government’s recent announcement.

This has impacted on consumer sentiment, with readings from the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating weakening throughout July, despite the huge recovery from the April lows. This index shows a high correlation with housing market activity (not prices). The recent downturn might therefore suggest that buyers and sellers may once again retreat to the sidelines.

In terms of changes in rent, Brisbane is doing well compared with other capital cities. The weakest rental conditions are being experienced in Hobart (house rents down -2 per cent and units down -4.5 per cent since March), Sydney (house rents down -1.1 per cent and units down -3.2 per cent) and Melbourne (house rents down -0.7 per cent and units down -3.1 per cent). It is important to mention that the weaker rental conditions are larger in the unit markets, compared with the housing markets in these cities.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (7)

What’s going to happen to the Brisbane property market moving forward?

There is a lot of worry and concern about what might happen to property values across the country when the government’s fiscal response starts to taper in October and repayment holidays expire at the end of March next year. Of course, we may see a rise in distressed properties coming to the market.  What we do not know is if this will put any downward pressure on prices. This is where I think the different property markets around Australia will each experience something slightly different.

According to the Commonwealth Bank Home Buying Spending Intentions Index, there was a 6 per cent rise in home buying intentions nationally up to the end of June 2020. This index showed the index had returned back close to levels seen in March – after much weaker readings in April and May.

Brisbane Property Market Update – July 2020 (8)

We are definitely seeing this trend on the ground with the current high volume of buyers in Brisbane.  Because of this, I’m sure we could see some moderate increase in new listings come to the market without any significant impact on the supply and demand balance. Remember, property prices will only fall when supply outstrips demand.

With dwelling approvals now at the lowest level in eight years, the future supply pipeline also looks tight. The most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed a decline of -10.9 per cent in new detached house approvals in Queensland.

Real-time demand is still strong and Brisbane property buyers are being fuelled by the lowest-ever interest rates, good levels of affordability and strong rental yields compared with many other state capitals. This is good news for our local Brisbane property market, and these factors will continue to support our property values into the future.





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Covid-19 House Price Downturn Continues

Covid-19 House Price Downturn Continues

Homes have dropped in value for the third consecutive month, falling -0.6 in July, as economists predict house prices could fall by 10 per cent over the year.

Corelogic’s home value index results for the month were slightly improved over July, up from the -0.7 per cent decrease in June.

Melbourne dwelling values dropped -1.2 per cent and Sydney -0.9 per cent, leading the decline ahead of Brisbane at -0.4 per cent, however, Canberra and Adelaide were in positive territory.

Regional markets showed more resilience than their metropolitan counterparts, with values remaining steady or increasing in some parts.

There was some disparity between unit and house prices, with units -0.5 per cent down in July and -1.3 per cent for the quarter compared to house prices at -0.6 per cent for the month and -1.8 per cent in the quarter.

Corelogic home price index: July

RegionMonthQuarterAnnualTotal Return
Combined Capitals-0.8%-2.0%7.9%11.5%
Combined Regional0.0%-0.1%3.9%8.7%

^ Source: CoreLogic, index results as at 31 July, 2020

Corelogic head of research Tim Lawless said the drop in house prices so far was less than expected at the start of the pandemic.

“The impact from Covid-19 on housing values has been orderly to-date, with Corelogic’s national index falling only 1.6 per cent since the recent high in April and housing turnover has recovered quickly after it’s sharp fall in late March and April,” Lawless said.

“Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.

“Advertised supply levels have remained tight, with the total number of properties for sale falling a further 4.3 per cent in the four weeks to 27 July, sitting 15.2 per cent below where they were this time last year.

“Additionally, increased demand driven by housing-specific incentives from both federal and state governments—especially for first home buyers—have become more substantial.”

Further decline in house prices anticipated

Despite recent improvements in the market, Capital Economics economist Ben Udy said they could reiterate pre-Covid-19 predictions.

“We ultimately expect house prices to fall by 5-10 per cent,” Udy said.

Although lower supply should help limit the decline in the near term, auction clearance rates would likely fall, according to the economist.

“The weakness in house prices will weigh on dwellings construction, limiting the recovery in economic activity and GDP growth,” Udy said.

“Indeed, dwelling approvals fell a further 4.9 per cent [month on month] in June to their lowest level since 2012, consistent with dwellings investment falling further in the coming months.”

The real challenge for house prices would be seen in October when fiscal support was set to taper, and when repayment holidays expire at the end of March next year.

Corelogic’s head of research said the medium-term outlook remains skewed to the downside.

“Urgent sales are likely to become more common as we approach these milestones, which will test the market’s resilience,” Lawless said.

“The extent to which this causes additional downwards pressure on home prices depends on how the Australian economy is travelling at that time.

“Further virus outbreaks present a clear and present danger to the depth and length of the recession, and the performance of the housing market.”

Auction markets showed a temporary recovery through June and early July but have since weakened as Melbourne moved back into lockdown.

The weekend results showed the clearance rate remained steady at 65.3 per cent compared to 66.4 per cent last year with 1,162 homes taken to auction, however the number of auctions in Melbourne was down 189 on the week before.

Corelogic quarterly rental data revealed last week that regional areas were starting to take a stronger hold of the rental market while metropolitan areas were trending downward.

Lawless said a drop in international tenants and surge in construction activity were some of the factors affecting supply.

“Additionally, the significant employment decline across food and accommodation services, arts and recreation services is compounding the weak rental demand, as these sectors workers are more likely to rent,” Lawless said.

“Anecdotally, the transition of short-term accommodation—namely Airbnb—to permanent rentals is temporarily adding to supply.”





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Luxury residential property prices on the rise

Luxury residential property prices on the rise

Australasia has been identified as the strongest performing region in the world in terms of luxury residential property price growth, according to the results of a global study.

The Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index tracks the movement of residential prices across 45 cities around the world. In the year to Q2 2020, five Australian cities – the Gold Coast, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane and Melbourne – made it into the top 24 for luxury residential market performance over the past 12 months.

The Gold Coast was the highest ranked city within Australia, claiming number 10 on the list and posting 3.4% annual growth.

“Knight Frank’s analysis by world region shows prime prices in Australasia and North America were the most resilient in the second quarter of 2020, with Australasia the strongest performing world region,” said Michelle Ciesielski, Knight Frank’s head of residential research Australia.

“The relatively strong performance of Australian cities was a result of the shallow number of listings, keeping property prices firm. By global comparison, we have largely escaped the major impact of COVID-19.”

Even with the pandemic, over the June quarter, 67% of global cities registered flat or positive prime annual price growth.

In terms of Australian placements, the Gold Coast was followed by Sydney, ranked 11 and Perth which came in at 12 – both of which recorded annual growth of 3%.

Brisbane was ranked 16 with 2.5% growth and Melbourne sat at 24 with 1.2% annual growth.

Knight Frank national head of residential Shayne Harris expects demand for luxury property in Australia to not only hold steady, but perhaps even grow.

“In cities such as Sydney, we are seeing more demand for higher-value properties such as large detached homes or generously-sized apartments, which is supporting prime residential values,” he said.

“During the pandemic, we’ve seen the ultra-wealthy make their next residential property purchase decisions based on liveability, so places like southeast Queensland will become more attractive in a post-COVID world.”

Given the tighter lending criteria, limited supply of dwellings, low interest rates and both governmental and bank-driven aid, Harris does not foresee significant volumes of distressed prime sales as were evidenced in 2008 during the global financial crisis.

Manila was the top performing city in the index, with annual luxury residential price growth of 14.4%, followed by Tokyo (8.6%) and Stockholm (4.4%).




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