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Australian capital city home prices surge 2.8% in March, their fastest since 1988

Australian capital city

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose a whopping 2.8% in March according to CoreLogic and are up 4.8% on a year ago. This is their seventh monthly gain in a row and their fastest monthly rise since October 1988 and they have now surpassed their September 2017 record high by 3.5%.

Sydney dwelling prices rose a very strong 3.7%, which is their faster since August 1988, and they have now surpassed their July 2017 record high.

Melbourne prices also rose 2.4% and have now surpassed their November 2017 record high.

Prices in other cities were all up strongly led by Hobart with prices up 3.3% in March, followed by Canberra up 2.8%, Darwin up 2.3%, Brisbane up 2.4%, Perth up 1.8% and Adelaide up 1.5%. Prices in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide are all at record highs.

Regional dwelling prices rose 2.5% in March and are up 11.4% on a year ago with their relative strength over the last year reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 3.1% in March and 6% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.9% gain in the month and 1.1% rise on a year ago, with the relative underperformance reflecting an ongoing shift in preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrained the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne.

Over the last 12 months unit rents fell -3.8% compared to a 5.2% in house rents, with the weakness in unit rents concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. However, the Sydney and Melbourne unit rental markets have shown signs of stabilisation and improvement in recent months.

The strength in home prices is consistent with other data showing a booming property market including record new housing finance commitments over recent months, surging home sales and record or near record auction clearance rates.

Clearance rates are now at levels consistent with 15% to 20% annual price gains in Sydney and Melbourne!

So why is the property market back to booming?

The property market has seen a huge turnaround from expectations of a year ago for sharp falls in home prices as a result of the pandemic driven lockdowns. Capital city home prices did fall nearly 3% around mid-last year (led by Melbourne), but the fall was brief as the government policy response intervened to protect the housing market from the recession and to push prices higher. Basically the combination of ultra-low mortgage rates, multiple government home buyer incentives, economic recovery, the strengthening jobs market and now an increasing element of FOMO (buying now for fear of missing out) combined initially with low listings are driving prices sharply higher. The pandemic driven desire to “escape from the city” also appears to be pushing up suburban house prices and regional prices up at a faster rate than its depressing inner city unit prices in Sydney and Melbourne.

While first home buyers led the initial recovery, spurred on by various incentives, owner occupiers have followed and now investors appear to be starting to jump in too.

Average capital city dwelling prices have now surpassed their September 2017 boom time high by 3.5% with Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and now Sydney and Melbourne along with average regional prices all at clear record highs. Perth and Darwin remain well down on their 2014 mining boom highs, but are now recovering rapidly.

Outlook

With variable mortgage rates set to remain ultra-low for the next few years average prices are expected to rise another 15-20% or so over the next 18 months to two years.

However, the pace of increase is likely to slow through 2021-22.

First, government housing incentives are likely to be sharply curtailed in the months ahead with HomeBuilder ending, the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme tapped out and some states may start to wind back various incentives.

Second, in the absence of an ability to raise interest rates, the RBA and APRA are expected to reach yet again for macro prudential controls to slow housing lending. While they don’t target house prices and are of the view that we have not yet seen a significant deterioration in lending standards on the metrics they look at, past experience indicates that surging house prices leads to a deterioration in lending standards and increasing financial stability risks. And the metrics APRA and the RBA look at are starting to push up in the direction of a deterioration in lending standards with record housing finance pointing to an acceleration in housing debt, an increasing share of lending at high loan to valuation ratios and a rising share of interest only loans albeit from a low base. All of which suggests that it will make sense to start tapping the lending standards brake soon. The first thing to do would be to increase interest rate buffers but limits on high loan to valuation ratio lending and high debt to income ratio lending may make sense too.

Thirdly, the recovery in immigration once the international borders are reopened is likely to be gradual and if so this will allow for years of property undersupply to give way to oversupply which is the best way to take pressure off house prices.

Fourth, it’s likely that the 30 year tailwind for the property market of falling interest rates has now run its course. Four year plus fixed rate mortgage rates look to have bottomed and the RBA seems more determined than ever to see inflation sustained in its target range which will ultimately put an end to the long term downtrend in interest rates.

Fifth, poor affordability will start to become an increasing constraint again if it’s not already.

Finally, government policy should further encourage the shift away from city living as unleashed by the pandemic and working from home as a way to take pressure off capital city property prices. This remains to be seen though. The ending of JobKeeper and the expiration of home loan deferrals may also act as a dampener to the extent that they may boost forced sales but in the absence of a significant new coronavirus driven lockdown the impact is likely to be marginal. Actual net job losses from the ending of JobKeeper are likely to be low and the proportion by value of home mortgages on payment holidays has collapsed from 11% in May to below 2%.

Brisbane

The Gabba Games – State’s $1b plan to turn stadium into sporting Mecca for 2032

Gabba

The Palaszczuk government will push ahead with a redevelopment of The Gabba as the centrepiece of its 2032 Olympic Games bid, but it still needs support and a whole lot of money.

The government has rejected lacklustre greenfield sites near Bowen Hills and instead gone across the river to Queensland’s major AFL and cricket venue at Woolloongabba. If the plan goes ahead, and Queensland secures the games, The Gabba will become a building site for five years while an Olympic-class stadium is built.

The Gabba is normally used around 40 weeks in every year. Taking it out of action will require negotiation with a neighbouring school, the Brisbane Lions and Queensland Bulls, along with the Queensland Cricketers’ Club, which has previously been a stumbling block to work on the stadium. It is yet to be seen whether losing a home ground, and maximum revenue for five years, is worth having a larger, modern venue to return to.

While the International Olympic Committee favours using existing venues, thereby reducing the cost to host cities, Palaszczuk is intent on asking the Commonwealth to help fund a complete rebuild. There is no funding agreement yet, let alone architectural plans, but Palaszczuk suggested the new stadium could cost $1 billion.

Palaszczuk said another 8,000 seats could be added to The Gabba, taking its capacity to 50,000, serviced by the nearby Cross River Rail station currently under construction. It would be higher than the existing stadium, to allow for pedestrian overpasses across nearby roads to funnel patrons directly into the new venue.

That would give The Gabba more seats than the old QE2 stadium, which currently has capacity of 48,500, but fewer seats than Suncorp Stadium (52,500). It would have better transport connections than the Nathan venue and in the circular format that suits athletic events and the Olympic opening and closing ceremonies.

“The Gabba has been home to our sport since 1895,” Palaszczuk said.

“A home for the 2032 Olympic Paralympic Games could be its crowning glory.”

“We’ve hosted the AFL here, we’ve hosted cricket here, but for the Olympics, this is front and centre – opening and closing ceremonies, athletics, you name it, it’s going to be the best,” she told Nine’s Today program.

Palaszczuk told parliament a key factor in deciding to use The Gabba was being able to utilise the adjacent Cross River Rail station. She noted the rail project was being delivered with “not one dollar from the Commonwealth” but her office was not in a position to clarify whether the $1 billion would include any rail station components.

The Gabba was built in 1895 and has undergone two substantial renovations and refurbishments since 1993.

The last major redevelopment was completed in 2005 when a 24-bay grandstand built for $128 million.

The Gabba’s public, corporate and media facilities also received a $35 million upgrade in 2020.

The Labor government will seek financial support from Brisbane City Council and the federal government for the project.

“We do need this, and it’s going to be utilised for the future, so they don’t want white elephants they want workhorses, and The Gabba is definitely a workhorse,” Palaszczuk said.

The International Olympics Committee named Brisbane as its preferred host city in February.

But a final decision rests on detailed discussions with Games chiefs and key commitments from the federal government.

Australian Olympics Committee president John Coates addressed cabinet on Monday, where MPs formally endorsed Brisbane’s candidacy.

“This is still contingent on guarantees that need to be received from the federal government,” Palaszczuk stressed on Monday.

She has had a discussion with Prime Minister Scott Morrison and more talks will occur in the coming weeks.

“We are basically doing years and months of work in a very short time frame to meet the deadlines the IOC has set us,” she said.

The state needed the boost the games would bring, including 130,000 jobs.

“It gives us hope, after going through the pandemic. It gives us hope for the future,” the premier said.

Morrison is expected to have more to say on Queensland’s Olympic plans on Tuesday.

Last month, he told the IOC the Australian government was firmly behind Brisbane to host the games.

But Brisbane is not without rivals.

Earlier this month, South Korea said Seoul had submitted a proposal to host the 2032 games, despite Brisbane’s frontrunner status.

 

Article Source: inqld.com.au

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Brisbane

Irongate Group Acquires Two Brisbane Industrial Properties

Irongate

Irongate Group (ASX: IAP; JSE: IAP) has entered into agreements to acquire:

  • an industrial facility located at 57 – 83 Mudgee Street, Kingston QLD (Kingston Property); and
  • an industrial facility to be constructed at Lot 24, Dunhill Crescent, Morningside QLD (Morningside Property).

Both properties are being acquired on a fund through basis. The purchase price of the Kingston Property is $14,320,000 representing an initial yield of 5.73%, and the purchase price of the Morningside Property is $5,932,000 representing an initial yield of 6.02%.

Commenting on the acquisitions, IAP CEO, Graeme Katz, said, “the Kingston Property will comprise two brand new, high quality generic warehouse and distribution facilities with 2,270m² leased to Construction Sciences for 10 years with fixed annual escalations of 2.5% and 3,250m² leased to Wako Kwikform for 8 years with fixed annual escalations of 3.0%. The Morningside Property comprises 1,016m² of space that will be leased to 3M Australia to be used as its Queensland head office and last mile distribution facility. The lease term is 10 years with fixed annual escalations of 3.0%.

“Both acquisitions are consistent with IAP’s strategy of acquiring good quality industrial properties with strong tenant covenants and long lease terms. IAP believes the Brisbane industrial market currently represents relative value, and the acquisitions complement IAP’s recent Brisbane industrial acquisitions in Brendale (completed in January 2021) and Pinkenba (completed in March 2021). The acquisitions will increase IAP’s exposure to industrial property to 34% by both income and value.”

Both acquisitions are due to complete in mid-May 2021.

 

Article Source: finance.yahoo.com

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Brisbane

Brisbane Housing Market Insights: April 2021

Brisbane

The Urban Developer’s Brisbane housing market insights for March reveals increased demand for houses has been underpinned by increasing consumer sentiment and a surge in interstate migration.

This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling Brisbane’s housing market.

Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.

Brisbane house prices have soared to record heights after a steady 12 months of growth and a rebound in listings and sales during recent months.

Brisbane’s housing market has remained particularly unaltered by the closure of international borders, where historically high demand from overseas migrants has been disrupted.

Brisbane advanced a further 2.4 per cent during March, pushing it up 4.8 per cent for the recent quarter and 6.8 per cent for the year to date.

The current median value for dwellings is $548,260, which is $12,642 higher than just a month ago.

The median house price of $607,969 continues to attract interstate migrants from the larger markets of Sydney, where the median is now $1.1m, and Melbourne at $859,097.

The premium end of the Brisbane’s housing market is still leading the acceleration in capital gains with upper-quartile property values rising by 3.1 per cent. Lower quartile property values were up 1.1 per cent throughout March.

Brisbane median house and unit price values

TypeMonthQuarterAnnualMedian
All2.4%▲4.8%▲6.8%▲$548,260▲
Houses2.6%▲5.3%▲7.9%▲$607,969▲
Units1.0%▶2.4%▲1.9%▲$400,866▲

^Source: Corelogic Hedonic Home Value Index – March

 Brisbane has clocked its highest auction clearance rate in six months.

CoreLogic’s weekly auction clearance rate across the combined capitals has been at or above 80 per cent just five times since 2008, and four of those were in March, 2021.

The week ending March 7, recorded Brisbane’s highest auction clearance rate on record—82.3 per cent—while also being the busiest week for auctions since late March, 2018.

Total listings across the country remain 26 per cent below the five-year average.

Brisbane auction clearance rates

WeekClearance rateTotal Auctions
Week ending 7 March 202182.3%107
Week ending 14 March 202165.2%110
Week ending 21 March 202173.0%151
Week ending 28 March 202168.8%191

^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates – March

Gross rental yields in Brisbane remains favourable compared to Sydney and Melbourne at 4.3 per cent.

According to the SQM, Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is currently 4 per cent and 5.2 per cent for units.

Vacancy rates are where your jaw may drop, with Brisbane at just 1.5 per cent, and other locations below 1 per cent.

Traditionally Brisbane’s vacancy rates have been tight, hovering well below the level of 2.5 per cent, which represents a balanced rental market.

Brisbane residential rental vacancy rate

CityMarch 2021 vacancy rateMonthly % change
Brisbane1.5%►0.0%►

Rental stock on market

CityMarch 2021 vacanciesVacancy net loss
Brisbane5407▲97▲

^Source: SQM Research – March

Brisbane rent prices

TypeRentMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Houses$483.70▲1.1%▲3.2%▲
Units$383.60▲0.2%▼1.4%▲

^Source: SQM Research – March

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland in February was 3,930, 40.5 per cent higher than recorded in January.

Loan data shows investors have started coming back into a housing market they had largely vacated and the boom is being driven overwhelmingly by established owner occupiers and first home buyers.

Queensland building approvals

^Australian Bureau of Statistics, (Suspension of trend series between May 2020 and Jul 2020 due to Covid-19)

DwellingApprovedMonthly % change
Houses2792▲25.4%▲
Units3930▲40.5%▲

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reference period February

Queensland home loan lending indicators

RegionFirst home buyer loan commitmentsFirst home buyer ratio – dwellingsFirst home buyer ratio – housing
Queensland3078▲ ▼39.6%▼34.7% ▼

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – February

Queensland interstate migration

RegionSeptember (quarter) 2020 arrivalsSeptember (quarter) 2020 departuresSeptember 2020 quarter net
Queensland22,317▼15,080▼7,237▲

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics – September quarter 2020

Brisbane’s housing market: policy updates

Australia’s central bank will maintain low interest rates to support the country’s ongoing economic recovery and surging housing market, buoyed by its busiest Easter auction market on record.

Strong tailwinds will bolster the Australian economy through the second half of the year, but macro-prudential measures are likely to be introduced to ease house price pressures in 2022.

Queensland faces a “hard road” during the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says.

Brisbane housing market forecasts

ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy while Commonwealth Bank updated its forecasts, projecting a strong rebound in prices across the second half of 2021.

CBA now expects Brisbane house prices to increase by 16.6 per cent to December 2022 compared to 13.7 per cent in Sydney and 12.4 per cent in Melbourne.

Westpac has also updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.

 

 

Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com

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